WASHINGTON — As the campaign enters its final weekend, it is characterized by an unprecedented series of events, including a controversial felony conviction, a shocking assassination attempt broadcast on live television, and the surprising withdrawal of President Biden, leaving a rift that has echoed throughout American politics for the past decade. This division manifests in the stark contrast between voters who fear that former President Trump could lead the country astray and those who believe it has already strayed from its foundational principles.
“We have a wonderful system of government,” stated Susan Markowitz, an attorney aged 72 from Doylestown, Pa., at a recent event featuring Vice President Kamala Harris. “That is in danger if Mr. Trump gets back into office.” Her sentiment reflects a widespread fear of a potential Trump presidency.
“He’s not the status quo,” remarked 58-year-old Dave Duncan, a salesman from Macomb Township, Mich., who stands firmly behind Trump. “He’s a catalyst for change, and that’s why people are drawn to him.” His perspective underscores the appeal Trump holds for a significant portion of the electorate.
Supporters packed the venue ahead of former President Trump’s address during a campaign rally in Gastonia, N.C., on Saturday.
(Chris Carlson / Associated Press)
In their final campaign push, both Trump and Harris are rallying voters to make an existential choice, with polls indicating that the race remains effectively neck-and-neck, showing little movement since Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee following Biden’s unexpected departure in late July.
Concerns surrounding Biden’s age and capabilities swirled as he withdrew just months before the election, marking a rare scenario in U.S. political history. Trump stands on the brink of potentially becoming the first elected felon in presidential history and the first candidate to openly challenge the results of an election while inciting an insurrection. He has audaciously indicated a willingness to use military and judicial power against those he terms “the enemy from within.” Despite such controversial actions, Trump has successfully framed himself as an agent of necessary change for a system he argues is fundamentally corrupt.
According to recent polls, less than a third of voters believe the nation is headed in the right direction, a finding that would typically pose significant challenges for the incumbent party. However, concerns regarding Trump’s suitability for office have kept the competition exceptionally tight, complicating Harris’ efforts to position herself as an alternative. She is seeking to make history as the first woman and woman of color to ascend to the presidency while navigating her response to a clear desire for change among the electorate.
“People are exhausted with him,” Harris articulated last week, emphasizing the public’s growing fatigue with Trump’s leadership and rhetoric.
Kamala Harris supporters rally at the Wisconsin State Fair Expo in West Allis on Friday.
(Jacquelyn Martin / Associated Press)
Harris has aimed to underscore alarming predictions from Trump’s former close aides, raising alarms that a second Trump term could pose even greater risks than the first, with little to stop him from retaliating against perceived adversaries using the judicial system or military might. “Either it’s Donald Trump, sitting in there, stewing over his enemies list; or me, with your help, working for you, checking off my to-do list,” Harris asserted at a recent event, contrasting their leadership styles directly.
Trump has dismissed Harris’ intelligence while admonishing that the influx of migrants has turned America into “an occupied country,” proclaiming that his election would herald a “liberation day” when he intends to imprison what he terms “vicious and bloodthirsty criminals.” “This election is a choice between whether we will have four more years of gross incompetence and failure or whether we will begin the four greatest years in the history of our country,” he thundered during his closing speech at Madison Square Garden last week.
Attention has primarily focused on seven crucial battleground states anticipated to determine the election’s outcome: Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.
A recent Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania, the most populous swing state, revealed the tight nature of the race: Trump leads by a slim margin of 1 percentage point among registered voters. However, Harris takes the lead when considering voter models based on the 2022 midterm election turnout, while a model focusing on “extremely motivated voters” results in a dead heat.
Both candidates were present in Wisconsin on Friday, with Trump slated to travel to Virginia and North Carolina the following day, while Harris headed to North Carolina and Georgia simultaneously.
In these critical swing states, voters are acutely aware of the heavy scrutiny they are receiving. Campaign signs in a kaleidoscope of colors dot the neighborhoods of Phoenix and its suburbs, contributing to the charged political atmosphere.
At a voting center in Scottsdale last week, voters were welcomed by activists from both major parties, creating a vivid tableau of political engagement—conservative representatives donned in red shirts on one side and progressive individuals in blue on the other.
In these final days leading up to the election, surrogates from both campaigns are spreading across Arizona, targeting distinct voter segments necessary to sway the divided electorate. Jeff Flake, the former U.S. senator and ambassador to Turkey, joined other prominent Arizona Republicans at a “Republicans for Harris-Walz” news conference, emphasizing that he supports her candidacy “not in spite of being a conservative Republican, but because of it.”
Jeff Flake, a former Arizona Republican senator, stumps for Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday in Scottsdale, Ariz.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Yet not all agree with Flake’s sentiments, as a passerby dismissed him with a sharp “RINO!” comment, illustrating the tension even among traditional party lines.
Both candidates are targeting the same critical subset of undecided voters, as indicated by Celinda Lake, a pollster for Biden’s campaign in 2020, who is conducting focus groups aligned with Harris’ efforts.
These remaining persuadable voters—approximately 4% of the electorate—are less informed about political intricacies. They often include non-college-educated women who harbor reservations about Trump’s demeanor but perceive him as a businessman likely to bolster the economy. In contrast, Harris remains a less familiar figure to them, raising concerns about her viability as a candidate, particularly given her identity as a woman of color.
To garner support from undecided voters, Trump has amplified fears surrounding crime, immigration, and economic instability, deploying gendered and race-driven critiques of Harris’ capabilities.
The election results may ultimately hinge on whether Harris can convince this group that she is equipped to handle the presidency while also framing Trump as a profound risk factor for the country. “A lot of people just think, ‘Oh, I can survive it. I’m unsure so I’ll just go for Trump because of the economy,’” said Lake, reflecting on her focus group findings. “She has to make him as risky as she is.”
Republicans who support Harris for president gather at an event outside the Indian Bend Wash Visitor Center on Wednesday in Scottsdale, Ariz.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Trump and his supporters argue that Harris’ focus on democracy might not resonate as compellingly as economic issues and concerns about immigration. “Saying democracy is under attack is just a more amorphous thing,” remarked Sean Spicer, a former White House press secretary under Trump.
Polling data and historical context suggest that voters are craving change, primarily due to economic anxiety fueled by inflation during the early months of Biden’s presidency and rising interest rates. Nevertheless, many voters remain unconvinced despite recent signs of economic recovery, including low unemployment rates and decreased inflation figures.
“The economy is all I’m worried about — nothing else,” stated Joe Rice, a 60-year-old cashier from Philadelphia, illustrating the narrowing focus of many constituents.
Despite being a lifelong Democrat, Rice, who is Black, is contemplating a shift in his voting choices as he grapples with the challenges of living on his $18-an-hour wage. “Trump was a little bit more easy living when he was in there, even though there’s a divide with the little skinhead stuff and all that,” he lamented, highlighting the tough decisions many voters face.
To connect with voters like Rice, Harris has promoted user-friendly initiatives such as stipends for first-time homebuyers and Medicare expansions geared towards at-home nursing care. She also points to a consensus among economists that Trump’s proposals for heightened tariffs would significantly increase everyday costs, effectively acting as a regressive sales tax.
While some polls indicate that Harris has started to narrow the gap with Trump on economic management perceptions, Trump still predominantly leads this crucial issue in voter surveys. Any progress Harris makes in this area could alleviate some of her struggles with male voters and galvanize her existing support among women, many of whom are fueled by anger over the rollback of abortion rights—an issue she has emphasized in her campaign narrative.
In a landscape where Trump lacks comprehensive policy details, he has nevertheless suggested or hinted at plans to implement record-high tariffs and eliminate various taxes, including those on tipped wages and overtime pay. Economists warn such measures would jeopardize government funding, posing risks to the economy.
As Trump’s advisors urge him to stay focused on the economy and continue attacking Harris as excessively liberal, he sometimes drifts into erratic and confusing monologues during his rallies, discussing unrelated topics that detract from his campaign’s core messages.
Candice Gonzalez, a widow managing the care of three autistic children in the Detroit suburbs, voiced her choice to support Harris as a means of making the least undesirable decision. “He’s just not a good person,” Gonzalez, 54, expressed bluntly, highlighting the moral stakes many voters perceive in this election.
### Interview with Political Analyst Dr. Emily Chen on the 2024 Presidential Race
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us, Dr. Chen. With the election just around the corner, how do you assess the current state of the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, especially given the recent dramatic events?
**Dr. Chen:** Thank you for having me. The race has indeed been unlike any we’ve seen before, primarily due to the controversies surrounding Trump, including his felony conviction and the shocking live assassination attempt. These events have overshadowed traditional campaign issues and intensified the public’s focus on character and stability.
**Interviewer:** Speaking of character, how do voters seem to be responding to Trump’s history, particularly given that he may become the first elected felon in U.S. history?
**Dr. Chen:** That’s a crucial point. Many voters express a palpable fear surrounding Trump’s potential return to office. For instance, Susan Markowitz’s comments about the dangers Trump poses reflect a broader anxiety among older voters who have lived through various political upheavals. However, on the flip side, his supporters see him as a disruptor who can challenge the status quo, as Dave Duncan noted. This fundamental divide is what makes the race so compelling.
**Interviewer:** Harris has attempted to frame herself as the stable alternative to Trump, highlighting the risks associated with a second Trump presidency. How effective do you think her messaging has been?
**Dr. Chen:** Harris’s messaging is critical, especially given her unique position as both the first woman and woman of color potentially stepping into the presidency. Her emphasis on the dangers of Trump’s leadership, such as his threats to use military and judicial power against his opponents, aims to resonate with voters who prioritize democracy. However, she faces a significant challenge in drawing undecided voters who may prioritize economic stability over political rhetoric.
**Interviewer:** Polls indicate that economic concerns are a significant driving force in voters’ minds. How might this impact Harris’s strategy moving forward?
**Dr. Chen:** Exactly. Many voters, particularly undecided or economically anxious individuals like Joe Rice, are worried less about political norms and more about their financial situations. Harris needs to assure these voters that she is capable of managing the economy effectively while also contrasting that with Trump’s approach. Her challenge lies in making the case that neglecting democratic values could ultimately jeopardize their financial security as well.
**Interviewer:** Given all of this, what key battleground states should we be watching in the final days before the election?
**Dr. Chen:** The focus should be on states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, which have fluctuating support for both candidates. Recent polls show a tight race; for example, in Pennsylvania, Trump has a slim lead, but Harris holds an advantage with certain voter turnout models. The demographic shifts and unique concerns of voters in these states will be pivotal in determining the winner.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Chen, for your insights. It’s clear that both campaigns have their work cut out for them as we approach this historic election.
**Dr. Chen:** Thank you! It’s definitely a momentous time in American politics, and I look forward to seeing how it unfolds.
