2023-12-15 21:08:00
Not all sectors sing the same song when evaluating the impact of the economic measures that Javier Milei’s new administration is taking in his first week in power. There’s a common denominator: a drop in the level of activity is predicted that would complicate 2024 performance and the depth of the recession and its duration is what everyone is watching closely.
The first number that was known came from the American bank JP Morgan, which, in a report reserved for its clients, revealed that The impact of the measures would imply a drop in the level of activity of 3% by 2024. And the entire local business community was put on alert.
In a press release, the Argentine Confederation of Medium Enterprises (CAME) warned that the new economic measures might generate a “sharp drop in activity” and, consequently, SMEs would register “an economic deficit that is difficult to sustain.”
The specialists consulted by the BCRA estimated an inflation of 189% by 2024
The developmental economist and former representative of Argentina before the IDB, Federico Poli, It was direct. “The minister basically announced strong emergency fiscal measures to avoid continuing in this direction that was going straight to a hyper”; However, he considered that “important implementation details are missing and fundamentally that announces a global economic program of stabilization and development (financial policy, exchange rate policy, income policy, foreign policy)” and emphasized that “relief measures for vulnerable sectors must be included.” , including SMEs.”
“I believe that within the framework of a global economic program it is necessary that, with that macro framework, the Government immediately announces a investment incentive law and modernization of the labor framework so that they allow dynamism for private investment and genuine employment,” he summarized.
Regarding infrastructure investments, which are a pending issue but might be delayed given the stoppage that was announced in terms of public works, there are a lot of concern in the energy market, especially due to the demand that should sustain the level of economic activity that the Government expects to grow.
When would the economic recovery begin
Contrary to these perspectives, the government is betting that once prices are rearranged in the first quarter, they will begin to see symptoms of slight recovery between April and May. It would be important to change the social mood and also to generate more tax revenue and, thus, be able to start spending a little more from the State due to the increase in income.
Infrastructure and energy will be vertical columns. For this reason, the Minister of Infrastructure, Guillermo Ferraro, summoned authorities from different business chambers to seek a new scheme for public works. For this reason, the holder of the portfolio met with the authorities of the UOCRA, UIA, ADEBA, SRA, CAMARCO, CAC and the Stock Exchange; members of the Infrastructure Policy Council, “in order to articulate the public sector with the private and achieve the participation of companies in the execution and financing of large works and projects,” said the Ministry of Infrastructure in a statement.
Each work is a world
There are some that we will see and from the General Mosconi Institute they warn regarding three key axes. Gabriel Rabinovich, vice president pointed out that “there are some works such as the northern gas pipeline that, if not completed, would cause an eventual collapse and it is urgent to avoid energy shortages to recover levels of economic activity.” In this sense, he considered that “during the first half of 2024 there might be a risk of outages (both residential and large users) due to the tensions of leaving a fully regulated energy market.”
LM / Give
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#Dissonant #fearful #voices #GDP #plummet
