2023-09-29 10:42:13
I’m using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy football statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do next week — like C.J. Stroud… and Jerome Ford… and De’Von Achane (see below).
Quarterback
From 9/15/2023:
From 9/22/2023:
Hopefully, you stashed C.J. Stroud away when I first dropped the beat because he’s finally headlining all the mainstream articles and is now out of reach in many leagues.
Available QBs With +37.0 Dropbacks Per Game
CJ Stroud, HOU — 45.0 Dropbacks Per Game
Mac Jones, NE — 45.0 Dropbacks Per Game
Sam Howell, WAS — 41.0 Dropbacks Per Game
Kenny Pickett, PIT — 37.7 Dropbacks Per Game
Geno Smith, SEA — 37.0 Dropbacks Per Game
Available QBs With +13 Deep Attempts (+20 Yards)
Available QBs With +0.15 Expected Points Added Per Attempt
CJ Stroud, HOU — 0.27 EPA/Attempt
Geno Smith, SEA — 0.22 EPA/Attempt
Jordan Love, GB — 0.20 EPA/Attempt
Andy Dalton, CAR — 0.20 EPA/Attempt
Jared Goff, IT — 0.18 EPA/Attempt
Joshua Dobbs, A.R.I. — 0.17 EPA/Attempt
Baker Mayfield, TB — 0.15 EPA/Attempt
Using a handy dandy combination of volume, depth, and efficiency, we end up with a bunch of the usual suspects. I have Geno Smith ranked well above the field in redraft, so if I have roster space, he’s my guy. However, Smith’s the most rostered QB on the list and also has a bye in Week 5, so he’s not the hero we need right now.
Fantasy quarterback scoring is so consolidated that there’s nothing wrong with filling gaps by streaming occasionally, so let’s check matchups next. Right off the top, I’m not interested in Mac Jones because he has the Cowboys and the Saints on deck. Ditto for Baker Mayfield. He struggled once morest his first real tough competition and now faces a staunch New Orleans defense on Sunday before a Week 6 bye. I would’ve gladly recommended the “Red Rocket” —Andy Dalton — once morest a leaky Vikings D, but Bryce Young is returning, creating a pretty tough scene for speculators. If you’re in need for Week 4, go with Russell Wilson versus the Bears, Kenny Pickett at Houston, or Jameis Winston at home in the dome once morest the Bucs.
Fantasy GMs who drafted Justin Herbert or Deshaun Watson have byes in Week 5, which means that now is the time to stash Sam Howell (vs CHI) or Ryan Tannehill (@IND). The Commanders have the Eagles this weekend and if Philadelphia blows them out of the building, be on the lookout for Howell rage drops — he may become available heading into a perfect matchup versus Chicago.
Running Back
From 9/22/2023
Nothing like a good testimonial, but the real credit goes to the manager willing to make that type of move before it’s glaringly obvious. Fortune favors the bold, my friends.
Available RBs With +6.0 Touches Per Game
Available RBs With +0.40 Fantasy Points Per Snap
Available RBs With +50% Touch Per Snap Rate
De’Von Achane, MIA — 66.7% Touch Per Snap Rate
Emanuel Wilson, GB — 60.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
Keaontay Ingram, ARI — 59.1% Touch Per Snap Rate
Kareem Hunt, CLE — 50.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
Deuce Vaughn, DAL — 50.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
Kendre Miller, NO — 50.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
Elijah Mitchell, SF — 50.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
Melvin Gordon, BAL — 41.4% Touch Per Snap Rate
Not sure how we can keep following our own act here but I’ve never backed down from a challenge before. There’s actually a three-pack of backup RBs who absolutely must be rostered before they pop. My top choice is Seahawks rookie Zach Charbonnet. The 52nd overall pick in this year’s draft is currently playing second fiddle to Ken Walker III… for now. Charbonnet’s working his way into a standalone role with a big-time contingency upside. He has higher yards per carry (4.6), yards following contact per rush (3.31), and success rate (56%) than the starter while logging a 12.5% negative rush rate — just under half of Walker’s. So get out there and pour yourself a nice glass of Charbonnet (sorry).
If Charbonnet happens to be on someone else’s team, give me the Titans’ Tyjae Spears, who has outsnapped Derrick Henry in two of three games so far. He also ran triple the routes Henry did last week while securing 100% of the RB targets.
The last member of my personal RB triumvirate is the Cowboys’ Rico Dowdle. As much as we love Tony Pollard and the surrounding context in Dallas, the fact remains that Pollard is taking a bruising by leading the league in touches. Dowdle has flashed skills in the passing game, earning a target on nearly one-third of routes run, and there’s no bigger potential injury void anywhere in the NFL. Stick with the process. Aggressively add backs with the highest possible upside for when the opportunity comes knocking.
Wide Receiver
Available WRs With +100 Routes Run, YTD
Available WRs With +23% Target Per Route Run (min 5 Targets)
Ty Montgomery, NE — 57.1% Target Per Route Run
Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG — 55.6% Target Per Route Run
Rashee Rice, KC — 35.9% Target Per Route Run
Marvin Mims Jr., DEN — 33.3% Target Per Route Run
Deonte Harty, BUF — 32.3% Target Per Route Run
KaVontae Turpin, DAL — 28.6% Target Per Route Run
Demario Douglas, NE — 27.9% Target Per Route Run
David Bell, CLE — 26.7% Target Per Route Run
Kalif Raymond, DET — 23.3% Target Per Route Run
Josh Downs, IND — 23.1% Target Per Route Run
Available WRs With +0.50 Fantasy Points Per Route (min 4 Targets)
Marvin Mims Jr., DEN — 1.47 Fantasy Points Per Route
KaVontae Turpin, DAL — 0.93 Fantasy Points Per Route
Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG — 0.68 Fantasy Points Per Route
Rashee Rice, KC — 0.68 Fantasy Points Per Route
River Cracraft, MIA — 0.61 Fantasy Points Per Route
Kalif Raymond, DET — 0.61 Fantasy Points Per Route
Tank Dell, HOU — 0.55 Fantasy Points Per Route
The wide receiver position is a seriously tough nut to crack this week. Besides Tank Dell, the most obvious add (and massive offseason miss for yours truly) is Adam Thielen, who has reemerged as a big slot WR in Carolina. After Thielen’s (2/12/0) line in Week 1, I confirmed my own priors that he was definitely washed when instead he was injured. Sorry, Adam. The ankle looks good and he might be entering a late-career positional shift to the slot, one that comes with lots of volume like the second acts of Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald.
My favorite speculative addition, and top candidate to headline all of next week’s waiver articles, is Kansas City’s Rashee Rice. The Chiefs have disappointed on offense thus far and their second-round selection just worked his way up to 51% route participation last week. His efficiency metrics started popping into elite territory (35.9% targets per route, 2.77 yards per route), and I believe the time to strike is now. The Chiefs will be facing a really tough Jets defense this week but I’m not letting that discourage me from capitalizing on Rice’s rest-of-season potential. The ceiling case for earning Patrick Mahomes’ trust in this KC offense in desperate need of a play-making WR is winning your league — ’nuff said.
Tight End
Available TEs With +75.0% Route Participation, YTD
Available TEs Earning +5.0 Targets Per Game
Zach Ertz, ARI — 6.7 Targets Per Game
Hunter Henry, NE — 6.0 Targets Per Game
Jake Ferguson, DAL — 6.0 Targets Per Game
Luke Musgrave, GB — 5.0 Targets Per Game
Cole Kmet, CHI — 5.0 Targets Per Game
Available TEs With +30 Air Yards Per Game
Luke Musgrave, GB — 57.3 Air Yards Per Game
Hunter Henry, NE — 50.7 Air Yards Per Game
Zach Ertz, ARI — 42.7 Air Yards Per Game
Logan Thomas, WAS — 34.0 Air Yards Per Game
Mike Gesicki, NO — 33.0 Air Yards Per Game
Hayden Hurst, CAR — 32.3 Air Yards Per Game
Every week I promise myself not to become one of the many TE agnostic analysts, and every week it gets harder. If we cross off players we’ve already highlighted like Luke Musgrave and Hunter Henry, I feel confident that Jake Ferguson will finish as a rest-of-season TE1. We know a lot of tight end production is predicated on scoring touchdowns, so why not start the player with the most opportunities? In fact, the Cowboys tight end currently leads the entire NFL with 2.7 red zone targets per game! Somehow they’ve only been able to convert a single touchdown, but his usage remains top-notch. Ferguson is third at the position in targets per route and eighth in team target share on a team projected to score a ton of points going forward.
For the deepest of deep leaguers, of course we got whipsawed over the past few weeks. Going into the season, my longest shot prediction was that UDFA Julian Hill would take over the starting TE job in Miami vacated by Mike Gesicki. Well, that mightn’t have been more wrong as Durham Smythe led the league in TE routes through two games. That signal-triggered me to tell you to play Smythe, who face-planted, to be replaced by none other than Hill himself. Hill, whose game tape is insane by the way, ran more than three times as many routes as Smythe last week. Perhaps the pendulum has swung back and I was just a little early on the next big thing.
The “Just so I Have This on Record, Mother of all Long Shot, Hail Mary Speculations”
Tyson Bagent, QB, CHI
The Bears’ tailspin continues. The movable force sets up to meet the stoppable object as Chicago’s regarding to face a team that just surrendered 70 points. The former D-II legend’s waiting in the wings if the Bears pull the plug on the Fields experiment, holding onto my top spot as the league-winning stash that nobody’s ever heard of. Chicago is on pace to have multiple Top 10 picks in next year’s draft if the losing continues, and all I’m saying is that crazier things have happened.
Thanks for reading, we all appreciate your support. Be on the lookout for my live fantasy football Q&A blog this Sunday right here at The Athletic. Please follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for links to the rest of my independent work, including advanced player data sheets, picks, props, and fantasy advice.
(Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports)
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