“I’m not young enough to know everything!” Oscar Wilde wryly complained. In this way, he pointed out that very often young people have simple answers at hand for all problems, believing that they clearly see the solutions for the diverse range of challenges that reality presents.
But this certainty about one’s own wisdom is not limited to young people. Politicians of all ages avoid saying, for example, that such a problem is difficult to solve, or that the measures that must be implemented will be harsh and probably have negative effects, with suffering for the voters.
This is due to the fact that in electoral campaigns, candidates should not predict difficulties, but good fortune. It is forbidden to talk about adjustments and difficult times. Image consultants and electoral advisers indicate that good news should be given. All “boom, up.”
In this way, in the search for the vote that will take them to power, politicians simplify problems and solutions. At least in speech. It is also likely that many of them really believe what they say and think that the solutions will be simple. This lightness is not without benefits: it offers the voter an effortless path that strengthens the general conviction that God is Argentine and that with a couple of good harvests everything will be straightened out more or less quickly.
Naturally, those who warn of future problems and difficulties and those who promise painful corrections will diminish their electoral chances.
that first time
It is likely that the results of Mauricio Macri’s government have not been fully read by analysts and voters. It could be said that during the first two years (2015-2017) the most traumatic rectifications were avoided for fear of piercing governability. After ratifying the electoral support in the midterm elections, the government believed it had the endorsement to attempt important changes, the hardest and most difficult.
When he faced them, he received complaints even from the government coalition itself, in addition to the loss of voter support. The rejection of these policies was attributed to Macri’s lack of political waist. It omits to say that the adjustments are inevitably unpleasant and their effects cannot be other than those obtained.
The conclusion that was drawn from this experience could not be simpler: hard changes must be made at the beginning of the management. They must be hard and firm. Here’s the solution. There could not be a more seductive proposition. A couple of knocks on the table – as long as they are given when the government starts – and everything will be in proper order. Decision and firm hand.
Therein lies the strength of Javier Milei’s offer, backed by broad swaths of young people, almost always inclined to simplicity. It is the vision that Macri had regarding inflation: “It can be fixed in a week.” Now we know that this is not the case, but we reiterate our elusive convictions. They are more comfortable.
Massa or the postponement of everything
No one will ever be able to say of Sergio Massa that he lacks a political belt. This presumed ability would consist, in the best of cases, in making bitter drinks digest, properly dosed and sweetened. In practice, having a political waist is equivalent to postponing sine the problem solving; not to face them, but to juggle various things to procrastinate without date the ominous moment of having to deal with them.
If the excessive monetary issue stimulates inflation, the Leliqs are there to absorb liquidity, even if a snowball is generated that at some point will be unsustainable. If the delay of the official exchange rate with respect to inflation stimulates imports, these are arbitrarily administered in favor of friendly businessmen, even if companies that depend on imported inputs are harmed. If exports stop, a special dollar is enabled for producers to export and reserves to reconstitute for a while. If inflation tightens, price control. And so everything. Meanwhile, the large gaps remain and increase with the passage of time.
The objective is none other than to keep inflation around 5% per month, accompany it with salary increases, continue delaying the exchange rate while possible, renew the Leliq each month, not pay a peso of debt, maneuver with the currencies so that stop the industry and thus reach December 10, to hand over the government with a red bow to the winner of the elections and, a couple of months later, blame him for all the conflicts that will inevitably ensue.
If Massa weighs the current economic situation, he will avoid being a candidate. Because the worst could happen to him: that he triumphs and must take charge of the situation that he is now building.