The current Danish population of just under six million may fall by several million over the next three generations if the fertility rate remains at the same level as today.
This is the outlook if you leave out immigration and increasing life expectancy from the forecast.
That’s what Politiken writes. The newspaper refers to calculations from Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen, professor of epidemiology and demography at the University of Southern Denmark.
In the past ten years, women in Denmark have had around 1.7 children on average, according to the newspaper. In 2022 and 2023, the fertility rate was around 1.5.
If the population is to maintain its number, all other things being equal, the number needs to increase to 2.1.
– If we closed the borders today and maintained the current fertility rate and maintained the average life expectancy, we would see that the population would shrink significantly.
– The low birth rate means that we can no longer – and haven’t been able to for years – reproduce our own population, says Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen to Politiken.
It is difficult to say what exactly will result if the population continues to have a birth rate of 1.5. This is because it is unknown how large the immigration will be and how much the average life expectancy will increase, writes the newspaper.
But without these two factors, the current population of just under six million will fall to just over five million in 2050, according to the calculations.
Looking ahead to the year 2100, we may be down to a population figure of 2.54 million.
In recent decades, the population has not decreased, but rather increased. This is due to immigration, longer life expectancy and the fact that previous generations’ very large birth cohorts have offset the low fertility rate, writes Politiken.
If immigration and life expectancy develop equally as expected, then the current birth rate will mean that the population will stagnate towards 2050.
This is shown by a calculation that Dansk Erhverv has made for the newspaper.
After 2050, however, the number begins to fall. And in 2060 there will be 5.8 million people in Denmark.
/ritzau/
2024-03-11 21:16:47
#Denmarks #population #fall #millions
