Political scientist, coordinator of the program “Foreign Policy of Belarus” of the Council on Foreign Relations “Minsk Dialogue” Denis Melyantsov believes that the end of the war is coming soon: “Signals are becoming more and more tangible, indicating the evolution of attitudes towards the war on all sides of the conflict. All this can lead to concrete steps already this year.”
“First, and most importantly, there is a slow but steady turn in the perception of the conflict in the United States,” expresses his opinion Melyantsov. – Officials, experts, and the media are increasingly talking regarding the fact that the war is becoming too expensive and that Kiev itself must pay for weapons, they write regarding corruption in the Ukrainian government, regarding a huge number of victims, and that Ukraine’s goals are at odds with others interests of the West (see the keynote article by Haas with Kupchan in Foreign Affairs), and that Kiev is not ready for a counteroffensive. That is, public opinion is preparing to change course. The United States is entering a new election cycle, and it is extremely unprofitable for Democrats to enter it once morest the background of the huge costs of the war and in parallel with the growing confrontation with China. Therefore, they will strive to deal with the Ukrainian issue before the end of the year, and possibly even earlier.
Secondly, the tone is also changing in the Russian media, and the narrative of possible conditions for a truce and negotiations is increasingly beginning to take root.
The impossibility for Russia to solve all the tasks of the NMD without total mobilization and transfer of the entire economy to a military footing was clearly manifested. And this is a gigantic political risk. At the same time, Gorlovka and Donetsk were shelled and shelled. And something needs to be done regarding it. At the same time, the tasks of the military campaign have already been partially solved – a land corridor to the Crimea has been created. These acquisitions can be fixed. Moreover, tacit consultations between Russia and the West on these issues, most likely, are already underway; and we will learn regarding them following at least some contours of a future compromise acceptable to both sides are agreed upon.
Thirdly, similar discussions regarding a possible “freeze” of the conflict have intensified in the Ukrainian media. This is partly due to the beginning of the preparation of some political actors for the elections (and for them martial law should be terminated). In addition, from American “leaks” and completely open information from the battlefield, we can conclude that the state of the Armed Forces of Ukraine before the announced counteroffensive leaves much to be desired, while Russia is seriously preparing for defense and has practically captured Bakhmut – this symbol of resistance, on which Zelensky made such a big bet. Therefore, the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, if it does take place, will be the moment of truth for Ukraine in all respects. Paradoxically, no matter how it ends, it will increase the risks for Kiev: in case of defeat, the Russians on the shoulders of the retreating Armed Forces of Ukraine will seize large territories and improve their negotiating positions (while disappointing the West), and if successful, Crimea will be put under attack. and this is a sharp escalation of the conflict with unpredictable consequences (which once more is not beneficial for the West).
All this suggests that in the coming months we are likely to witness a rather rapid transition from the acute phase of the conflict to the negotiation process. Maybe through the aggravation associated with the counteroffensive, and maybe even without it.
