Dende projects a good economic year, despite global uncertainty

Asunción, IP Agency.- Despite global uncertainty, a good year is expected in economic matters, said economist and former Minister of Finance César Barreto during the presentation of DENDE 2024 Perspectives, which took place this Tuesday at the Sheraton Hotel. The conclusions were given by the president of DENDE, Alberto Acosta Garbarino.Barreto stated that the good soybean harvest, the sharp drop in smuggling, the improvement in meat exports, as well as the beginning of payment to State suppliers and better collection at the beginning of this year allowed an improvement in economic activity. . In terms of monetary policy, he estimates that year-on-year inflation will remain above 5%.

When reviewing the global economy, he pointed out that it is not known if there will be a rate adjustment in the United States, but it is clear that it would not return to minimum levels. He added that although China’s economy is experiencing difficulties, mainly in the real estate market, the first quarter was better than expected thanks to the performance of the industrial sector.

He explained that the subsidy programs in the industrial sector implemented by the great powers (China and the United States, mainly) distort the market and that globalization is over, which makes us look with caution at how it will impact our country.

In the case of Argentina, he explained that the measures carried out by President Javier Milei, such as the fiscal adjustment program and the half-sanction of his Base Law, were effective. He said that although the elimination of the exchange rate is pending, as long as the exchange gap remains minimal, it benefits our country, due to less smuggling of products from the neighboring country to our territory.

Regarding Brazil, he said that economic activity remains strong and that the challenge for Luiz Lula Da Silva’s government is compliance with its new fiscal rule.

Projections

The economic outlook for the end of 2024 considers that the GDP will close at 3.7%, due to a smaller corn harvest and a complicated outlook for the construction sector; Inflation will close at 4.4%, while the exchange rate will close between G. 7,400 and G. 7,600 per dollar.

Opening of markets, investment and pacification

Alberto Acosta Garbarino, president of DENDE, in his final reflections on Paraguay’s political and economic prospects, recounted the country’s evolution since the commodities boom in 2003, when Latin America experienced widespread growth, and Paraguay especially benefited thanks to the effort of the private sector, which generated an increase in agricultural production.

However, he pointed out that the panorama has changed drastically, and Paraguay must adapt to these transformations. Traditional growth engines, such as soybeans and beef, are reaching their limits. It is crucial, in his opinion, to diversify the economy and bet on the industrial sector as a new engine of development. Unlike commodities, the industry requires active efforts to open markets, which implies greater state intervention, in the hands of the Foreign Ministry, since private effort in this matter is insufficient.

At another time, he emphasized the need for greater investment in infrastructure and social development. To achieve these goals, reforms are required to cover investment deficits. In that sense, he said that the business community supports President Santiago Peña’s reform agenda.

Finally, he highlighted the importance of harmony and national unity in an increasingly complex and fragmented international context. He advocated peaceful conflict resolution and focus on national interest over sectional disputes.