The serious crisis between Algeria and Morocco over Western Sahara has turned into a war of diplomatic attrition which goes beyond the region and raises fears of an explosion for lack of a solution in sight, according to analysts.
Emboldened by the recognition by the administration of Donald Trump at the end of 2020 of its sovereignty over this disputed territory in return for a rapprochement with Israel, Morocco has since deployed an increasingly offensive diplomacy to rally other countries to its positions.
King Mohammed VI warned in August that such support should not “to be unequivocal”claiming that the Sahara dossier was “the prism through which Morocco considers its international environment”.
Opposite, the great Algerian rival continues to display its unfailing support for the Sahrawi separatists of the Polisario front. Algiers is also taking advantage of its status as a gas exporter pampered by Europe seeking to offset Russian gas to score points in its remote diplomatic duel with Rabat, with which it broke relations in August 2021.
“We are witnessing a diplomatic war in which the two parties use all means without going as far as an open conflict”says Riccardo Fabiani, specialist in North Africa at the International Crisis Group (ICG).
The latest episode of this diplomatic confrontation took place at the end of August when Morocco recalled its ambassador to Tunisia for consultations following President Kais Saied received the leader of the Polisario, Brahim Ghali, on the occasion of an economic summit Japan- Africa.
“Repercussions”
This incident shows that “The conflict in Western Sahara is beginning to have repercussions outside the Morocco-Algeria bilateral framework”underlines Mr. Fabiani: “Morocco will now consider Tunisia as part of the pro-Algerian camp.”
Ghali’s hospitalization in Spain in April 2021 caused a serious crisis between Madrid and Rabat, culminating in the entry the following month of more than 10,000 migrants in 24 hours into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, thanks to a relaxation of border controls on the Moroccan side.
Madrid put an end to this crisis by aligning itself in March with the Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony controlled 80% by Rabat. The Polisario calls for a self-determination referendum under the aegis of the UN.
In reaction to Madrid’s reversal, Algeria suspended its cooperation with Spain, recalled its ambassador and mentioned an increase in the price of Algerian gas delivered to Spain.
A ceasefire in Western Sahara in force since 1991 was shattered in November 2020 following the deployment of Moroccan troops in the far south of the territory to dislodge separatists who were blocking the road, according to them opened illegally, towards Mauritania .
Tension rose further in November 2021 following Algeria reported a Moroccan bombing that killed three Algerian truckers in Sahrawi territory.
“Pax americana”
For Mr. Fabiani, Mr. Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara in return for normalization with Israel, to the chagrin of Algiers, has “revived a conflict that had been frozen for a long time in favor of a kind of pax americana”.
Located on the Atlantic coast, the Western Sahara (266,000 km2) is rich in phosphates and has a very fish-rich coastline of more than 1,000 km.
“During the past decade, Morocco has strengthened its diplomacy, particularly in Africa and towards certain countries of the European Union (EU) while Algeria was lagging behind”dissects Dalia Ghanem, from the Institute for Security Studies of the EU (IESUE).
Algeria, with its gas wealth highlighted by the conflict in Ukraine, “intends to strengthen its role in the region and become a leader in Africa”she believes.
“We are witnessing a worrying trend of seeing everything in the region through the prism of the Algerian-Moroccan rivalry”notes Anthony Dworkin, of the European Council for International Relations: “It’s a delicate and dangerous moment.”
The UN envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, made a new visit to the region this weekend without the slightest sign of a possible resumption of the dialogue that has been suspended for several years.
“The risk of a military conflict is low because neither side wants it. But this should not be underestimated, all it takes is a border incident and miscalculation”warns Mr. Fabiani, the ICG expert.
