National polls for the US election see Harris ahead of Trump. But the swing states are crucial. Democrats fear a surprise there.
Washington, DC – “We’re reaching the point in the election cycle where we’re starting to get a lot of polls – enough that it occasionally feels like the polls are swinging from left to right and back every day,” Nate recently wrote Cohn, the senior political analyst at the New York Times on the US election campaign. were the reason three new polls in the swing states Georgia, North Carolina and Arizonaall of them Donald Trump three to five percent Kamala Harris saw.
Some are worried Democrats according to a report by the Washington political medium The Hill However, polls are in their favor. According to the nationwide Survey averagewhich the New York Times Calculated together with Siena College, Harris has been ahead of Trump since the first half of August. Things have been similar since then three important northern swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin out of. The Democrats now fear that Trump is underrepresented in the polls and that Harris will ultimately lose to him despite her good poll numbers – like Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Democrats fear that Kamala Harris may be ahead in the polls but will ultimately lose to Donald Trump – like Hillary Clinton in 2016. © Montage: Saul Loeb/AFP
Democrats fear Harris polls are too good – Trump may be underrepresented
„The polls have been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths: Trump will be hard to defeat in Pennsylvania,” Democratic Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania said The Hill. Harris was in his state New York Times and Siena College, as in Michigan, never more than two percent ahead of their Republican competitor. In Wisconsin, she was able to temporarily increase her lead to three percent, but that is also within the margin of error.
Leading Democrats fear that their presidential candidate will be in these Swing States The “Blue Wall”, which is worth a total of 44 electoral votes, is always ahead in the polls, but several stones may fall off on election evening. “The only poll that counts is November 5th,” emphasized Raphael Warnock, Democratic Senator from Georgia The Hill. “We don’t talk about margins of error for nothing,” says Warnock.
Hillary Clinton also led in Pennsylvania in 2016 – and ultimately lost
The most important is Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes. In the final weeks before the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton led the polls there by up to seven percent and still ended up less than one percent behind Donald Trump. Against this background, a Democratic senator, who wished to remain anonymous, stated The Hill to consider that both Clinton 2016 and Joe Biden In 2020, they performed better in the polls against Trump than Harris currently does.
He also said pollsters have difficulty quantifying Trump’s support because his supporters may not want to participate in their polls or speak openly about their political views. A second Democratic senator, who also requested anonymity, summed up dryly: “I don’t think any poll says much right now.”
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Nevertheless: If the polls are correct, Kamala Harris will be president. However, if she were to lose Pennsylvania, she would have to win one of the big swing states in the “Sun Belt” – Georgia or North Carolina, each with 16 voters. In the last one New York Times/Siena College poll could have Trump even further ahead here than before because the second assassination attempt on him had an impact on voter approval, he speculated Times-Analyst Cohn.
