Republicans are grappling with a serious Trumpist tumour, which many of them quietly admit.
However, they remain ultra-competitive because the Democrats are also experiencing immense difficulties.
Dangers
Biden’s job approval rating is abysmal.
The challenges are certainly immense, but its policies do not bite into the problems.
He is not inspiring and seems less and less listened to.
Above all, as cruel and unfair as it may seem, it projects the image of a tired, outdated man in an era where image is an essential component of political success.
The loss of the Democratic majorities in the Senate and the House in November would complete the crippling of the Biden administration.
We simply do not see how the president, currently 79, could be a candidate for his own succession in 2024.
And this is where we realize that the worst problem of the Democrats is perhaps in front of them.
The vice-president of a Democratic administration is the favorite to be the standard bearer of his party in the next election.
Mondale, Gore and Biden, all former Democratic vice presidents, were their party’s nominees for president.
It’s an understatement to say that the candidacy of Kamala Harris makes many Democratic strategists nervous, even if the vice-presidency offers little opportunity to shine.
It’s not just that Ms. Harris is a much more left-leaning Californian than the average American. It is also that any effort to block her path would raise the ire of this fringe of the party for whom Ms. Harris is especially important for what she embodies.
Which brings us, if that weren’t enough, to another huge problem for Democrats.
Several influential Democrats believe that their party has swerved far too far left under the influence of the various factions of the rainbow woke : BLM activists, supporters of the “defunding” of the police, supporters of the debunking of statues and the erasing of the names of the Founding Fathers who had slaves, supporters of the banning of words and works, LGBTQ activists, etc.
Add to this the radical ecologists, the supporters of an increase in public spending and taxes, those who end up around illegal immigration, etc.
If that kind of ideological cocktail doesn’t stop you from winning in California, New York, and college campuses, how will it be received in Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and other moderate states, where the fight will be hot, and that the democrats must absolutely win?
Moderate
Many ordinary Americans no longer recognize themselves in the image of their country conveyed by the New York Times and CNN.
The last Democrats to have ascended to the White House – Clinton, Obama, Biden – took care to position themselves as moderate and pragmatic progressives.
Even a Democratic candidate who rejects these extreme positions would be vulnerable if he is perceived, rightly or wrongly, to be surrounded by influential people who believe in them.
In politics, you are generally the architect of your misfortunes.