2024-03-15 16:40:00
‘130~140 seats in constituency, proportional 13+α’ Judging that the approval rating is close, the party rallied supporters by emphasizing the tight approval rating. Some say, “To sort out the cancellation of nominations,” some say, “We can’t backlash from the arrogant frame.”
Lee Jae-myung (second from the left), leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, visits Gijang Market with candidate Choi Taek-yong (left), who is running for Busan’s Gijang constituency, on the afternoon of the 15th to appeal for support from citizens. Length = Reporter Jeon Young-han scoopjyh@donga.com
The Democratic Party of Korea held a press conference on the 15th, with 26 days left until the April 10 general elections, and suddenly revealed its own analysis of the situation, saying that the current situation shows that it has secured more than 153 seats, which is the majority of the seats in the National Assembly. The argument is that they can achieve an overall majority (more than 150 seats) by winning 130 to 140 local seats nationwide and about 13 proportional seats, including the Democratic Alliance. Regarding the fact that the Democratic Party first revealed the situation a day after canceling the nomination of candidate Chung Bong-ju due to controversy over harsh words, there was an interpretation in the political world that “the intention was to quickly conclude the nomination internal dispute and emphasize the theory of judging the regime by revealing the close situation.”
There was also an analysis within the Democratic Party that said, “Until last week, about 120 seats in the district were expected, but the party leadership seems to have expressed confidence and started to rally supporters after seeing that the party’s approval rating has turned to a clear upward trend again.”
● In just one week, the expected number of constituency seats increased by 10 to 20.
Han Byeong-do, chairman of the Democratic Party’s strategic planning committee, held a press conference at the Democratic Party headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul on this day and said regarding the current general election situation, “Win is judged to be a victory in about 130 to 140 seats nationwide (based on district seats).” Regarding the proportional seats, he said, “I expect it will be around 13 seats plus alpha (+α).”
This calculation is based on the judgment that the atmosphere in the metropolitan area, including Seoul, is improving while support from Honam and Jeju, traditional support bases, is solid. The Democratic Party stated that it believes that in the case of Seoul, the situation where the party was at a close disadvantage has changed to a close advantage as the party’s approval rating has recovered. A party leadership official said, “Of course, in the case of the ‘Han River Belt’, a key battleground in Seoul, the Democratic Party must be seen as still inferior.” Regarding Gyeonggi, where Lee Jae-myung served as governor, and Incheon, where he currently has a constituency, Chairman Han said, “Overall, the theory of government checks is high, so we are expected to dominate in many regions.” In the battleground of Busan and Gyeongnam (PK), it was seen that “the party’s approval rating is low, but it is on the rise, so it is worth a try.”
● “Intention to resolve the cancellation of Jeong Bong-joo’s nomination”
There is analysis in the political world that it is unusual for the Democratic Party to disclose the situation along with the specific expected number of seats 26 days before the election. During the last general election, the Democratic Party held a press conference five days before the election and predicted 17 seats proportional to the 130 seats in the district.
It appears that the Democratic Party’s intention to bring forward the timing of revealing the situation was to emphasize that the situation has changed from ‘outnumbered’ to ‘closed’ and to further rally support base in the recovery phase of approval ratings. A key party official said, “In the past week, we believe that at least 10 seats have been transferred to the Democratic Party due to the overlap between the theory of limits against People Power Party Emergency Response Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon and the theory of judgment on the regime.” Another key official of the Democratic Party said, “The disclosure of the situation is also aimed at resolving the cancellation of nominations due to the controversy over candidate Jeong Bong-ju’s abusive language.”
However, there are concerns within the party that the current situation may be met with a backlash due to the ‘arrogance frame’, given that the party has predicted a maximum majority. An official from the party’s strategic planning committee said, “Now is the time when we need to rally our supporters more than to show an image of arrogance. If the party had judged that there was actually an overwhelming majority, we would have lowered the number and announced it, but this time is the result of trying to view the current situation as positively as possible.” .
According to a survey released by Gallup Korea on this day, 49% of respondents said that the opposition party should win a majority in this general election, which was 9 percentage points higher than the response that the ruling party should win a majority (40%). The approval ratings for political parties were within the margin of error for the Democratic Party (32%) and the People Power Party (37%). In the moderate approval rating, the Democratic Party was 33%, 9 percentage points ahead of the People Power Party, which had 24%. President Yoon Seok-yeol’s approval rating for his administration fell 3 percentage points from last week (39%) (Conducted by a telephone surveyor through wireless phone interviews targeting 1,002 adults nationwide from the 12th to the 14th. Sample error ±3.1% points at 95% confidence level. For more information, refer to the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee website)
Reporter Kang Seong-hwi yolo@donga.com
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