The price of the OPEC reference basket fell by 6.5 percent in September to an average of $95.32 per barrel (159 liters). Hedge funds and other market participants continued to sell major futures contracts.
Central bank interest rate hikes, concerns regarding the economic outlook, supply chain problems and pressure on stock markets are putting pressure on crude oil futures prices, according to OPEC’s latest oil market report. Added to this are geopolitical risks and the outbreak of the pandemic. As a result, forecasts for the global economic outlook have also been revised downwards.
In line with economic developments, oil demand for this year has been revised down by 0.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to growth of 2.6 million b/d. The need in the OECD countries is likely to be somewhat higher than in the non-OECD countries. An increase in demand of 2.3 mb/d is forecast for 2023.
demand decreases
According to OPEC estimates, the global demand for oil will also be lower than expected next year. The global economy is under pressure due to high inflation rates, rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain problems, according to the monthly market report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday in Vienna.
For the fourth quarter, the group lowered its demand forecast by almost 800,000 barrels (159 liters each) to 101.6 million barrels per day. Next year, OPEC anticipates an average requirement of 102 million barrels per day, around 700,000 fewer than the previous forecast.
The broader production alliance OPEC+, in which OPEC cooperates with Russia and other countries, decided last week to cut its agreed production volume by a total of two million barrels from November. According to analysts, however, the reduction will only amount to around one million barrels in reality, as OPEC+ recently pumped less oil than planned.