Anumita Roychowdhury, Sayan Roy, Shubham Srivastava, Sharanjeet Kaur, Richa Pandey, Caleb Phillips and Shambhavi Shukla
New Delhi, November 6, 2024
PLEASE SEE THE COMPLETE CSE ANALYSIS WITH ALL GRAPHS ETC CLICK HERE
In a concerning revelation, despite the implementation of several technological strategies aimed at curtailing vehicular pollution, this form of pollution has risen to become the primary contributor to the deteriorating air quality in the capital, Delhi. Rapid motorization, severe traffic congestion, and subpar public transport infrastructure are undermining the emission reductions achieved through technological interventions in the transportation sector.
The findings emerge from a thorough investigation conducted by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE). This analysis highlights that despite aggressive efforts including the largest-ever CNG initiative for public and local commercial transport, initiatives to phase out older diesel and petrol vehicles, restrictions on non-destined trucks, and the introduction of Bharat Stage 6 emissions standards, the ongoing mobility crisis continues to fuel emissions from vehicles, which remain the leading source of pollution.
Taking into account these alarming trends, CSE has meticulously assessed the underlying factors driving the escalating mobility crisis and worsening congestion, which are significantly contributing to the toxic accumulation of pollution in the city. The analysis encompasses an in-depth examination of current particulate matter pollution trends, evolving motorization patterns, congestion impacts, and the operational status of public transport in order to fully grasp the growing challenge confronting the metropolis.
This analysis has been conducted based on the:
(i) Publicly accessible granular real-time data sourced from the CPCB’s official online portal, Central Control Room for Air Quality Management, utilizing data collected from 37 official stations under the Continuous Ambient Air Quality Monitoring System (CAAQMS) dispersed throughout Delhi.
(ii) Dynamic real-time data estimations on source pollution contributions derived from the Decision Support System for Air Quality Management of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), which facilitated the assessment of real-time trends concerning the relative contributions of various pollution sources.
(iii) Data on farm fire incidents provided by the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), paired with contributions of farm stubble fires to Delhi’s air quality, as estimated by the Ministry of Earth Science’s SAFAR (System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research).
(iv) Traffic movement data in the city utilizing Google Maps API to gauge congestion levels during early winter (September 15 – October 29, 2024) across 25 key road stretches in Delhi, establishing a relationship with concurrent pollution trends.
(v) Congestion and productivity loss data derived from Google API, calculated based on figures supplied by the State’s labor law department.
(vi) Year-wise trends for the registered city bus fleet, informed by the Socio-Economic Report over various years.
(vii) Accessibility analysis for bus and metro services through geographical information systems (GIS), utilizing ward-wise population data in conjunction with station location findings.
(viii) Ridership trend assessments for DTDC and Cluster buses drawing from the GNCTD Economic Survey of Delhi.
(ix) A comparative analysis measuring the journey costs of public versus private transport, grounded in primary data gathered by CSE.
Key findings:
- State of Delhi’s air: What is the emerging learning?
Despite early declines, PM2.5 levels are on the rise, necessitating substantial reductions to meet clean air standards: Although long-term PM2.5 concentrations have generally decreased, data from 2022 displays an upward trajectory. In comparison to 2019 levels, PM2.5 levels reflect a 7 percent improvement in 2023, yet Delhi must achieve an additional 60 percent reduction to comply with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5. A similar pattern characterizes winter pollution, with the average level during winter months remaining elevated despite some reductions in peak levels. (See Graph 1 a & b: Trend on annual average of PM2.5 level in Delhi).
Growing average winter pollution highlights serious air quality concerns due to localized pollution: Despite a nearly 35 percent reduction in winter PM2.5 peaks for the 2023-24 season when compared to 2019-20, the average PM2.5 concentration has stagnated at its highest point over the past five years. The average PM2.5 concentration for winter has escalated to 189 µg/m3 in 2023-24, marking a 9 percent surge from the winter average concentration observed in 2019-20. This persistent upward trend necessitates immediate action (See Graph 2: Trend on winter average and winter peak of PM2.5 pollution in Delhi). This situation illuminates elevated pollution levels strongly influenced by atmospheric conditions.
Local pollution sources significantly affected Delhi’s air quality this winter – Days with minimal farm fire contribution still classify air quality as poor: During the initial phase of this year, specifically from October 10-20, the average farm fire contribution to Delhi’s PM2.5 levels lingered at a mere 0.7 percent, indicating a meager influence from stubble burning on overall PM2.5 concentrations. However, from October 22 onwards, the impact of farm fires became pronounced, with stubble burning accounting for 16 percent of PM2.5 levels on October 23, resulting in PM2.5 levels soaring to 213 µg/m³, falling into the ‘very poor’ category. Despite this, air quality remained subpar; on October 31, concentrations were recorded at 206 µg/m³, showing only a marginal 3 percent decrease compared to October 23’s peak concentration. This data corroborates that local contributors remain the principal drivers behind elevated PM2.5 levels in Delhi, persisting even when farming impacts were at their lowest. There were no recorded days in the “good” category.
2. What is contributing to Delhi’s pollution?
Vehicles have been identified as the primary pollution source in the city: Comprehensive source apportionment and emission inventory studies conducted by several institutions, including the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, The Energy Research Institute, and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology – SAFAR, have consistently classified vehicles as the leading sources of pollutants. Examining combustion sources and dust, vehicles rank second overall.
Emission inventory assessments performed by IIT-Kanpur in 2015, TERI-ARAI in 2018, and SAFAR in 2018 have indicated that the transport sector’s contributions to PM2.5 emissions spanned 20 percent, 39 percent, and 41 percent, respectively. This categorizes vehicles as the second-largest contributor to air pollution within the transport sector. (See Graph 4: Emission inventory of PM2.5 for Delhi).
According to the source apportionment analysis by IIT Kanpur, during the winter months, while dust contributions decrease to under 15 percent, vehicle pollution significantly increases, intensifying local air quality issues.
- What is contributing to the mobility crisis in the city?
Rapid motorization is a key factor: The number of vehicles is escalating, emerging as one of the fastest-growing pollution sources. The Economic Survey of 2023-24 indicates that Delhi’s total vehicle stock has reached 79 lakh, with 6.5 lakh new vehicles added during 2023-24 according to data from the VAHAN database. Two-wheelers and cars make up 90.5 percent of this total. Daily, an average of 1100 two-wheelers and 500 private cars are registered, exacerbating the air pollution crisis (see Graph 6: Rising Motorization in Delhi).
The motorization rate has rebounded rapidly after pandemic-induced downturns, now boasting an average annual growth rate of 15.6 percent. Notably, two-wheelers and private cars are both increasing at 15 percent annually.
The National Capital Territory of Delhi, which already boasts one of the highest vehicle registration numbers globally, experiences daily traffic of approximately 1.1 million vehicles.
Severe congestion exacerbates local air quality issues: Not only are vehicles primary contributors to particulate pollution, but they are also significantly responsible for nitrogen oxide emissions. The 2018 emission inventory conducted by TERI-ARAI reveals that the transport sector accounts for an astonishing 81 percent of nitrogen oxide emissions, dwarfing contributions from power plants at a mere 7 percent (See Graph 7: Emission inventory of NOx by TERI-ARAI, 2018).
Vehicles caught in traffic congestion emit pollutants at rates several times higher than their standard emissions. Consequently, a strong correlation exists between vehicle usage and variations in nitrogen oxide levels. An analysis of data from October 27 to November 1 demonstrates a correlation between NO2 levels and traffic speed. During peak hours on workdays, slower travel speeds yielded remarkably high NO2 concentrations, while reduced traffic on November 1, a holiday, corresponded with lower NO2 levels. (See Graph 8: Correlation between NO2 and traffic speed).
Urban sprawl causing increased travel distances: The urban expansion of Delhi into peripheral regions has resulted in longer average trip lengths as well as rising per capita trip rates. The increase in overall travel volume is alarming. Specifically, the per capita trip rate has surged by 12.3 percent, while average trip lengths have ballooned by an astounding 81.7 percent (See Graph 9: Sprawling City – Built-Up Area Comparison between 2003 and 2023). This urban sprawl, coupled with extended travel distances, is driving up private vehicle usage and complicating the operation of existing public transport systems.
Private vehicle reliance is on the rise as public transport loses ground: As cities develop and travel distances broaden, the modal share of motorized travel inevitably increases. Over the past decade in Delhi, there has been a marked shift in modal share: from 38 percent to 49 percent for private vehicles, while bus trips have experienced a 20 percent decline. This trend underscores an increasing dependency on personal vehicles even as usage of public transport has waned (See Graph 10: Modal Split of Delhi).
Meeting the Delhi Master Plan objective of an 80:20 modal split in favor of public and shared transportation by 2041 will necessitate a consistent 1 percent annual increase in public transportation trips, matched by a proportional decrease in private vehicle trips.
The economic cost of congestion is substantial: The repercussions of congestion extend beyond mere travel delays, impacting productivity and fuel efficiency. Limited assessments exist regarding the annual costs incurred by congestion in Delhi. A 2010 estimate by the University of Leeds placed the yearly fuel wastage cost due to congestion at USD 1.6 million, with projections by IIT Madras estimating costs could reach USD 12,003 million by 2025 and USD 14,658 million by 2030, factoring in productivity losses and air pollution expenses.
A swift assessment conducted by CSE indicates that unskilled workers may stand to lose between Rs 7,500 and Rs 20,100 annually due to traffic congestion. Similarly, skilled workers can experience losses ranging from Rs 9,100 to Rs 24,400, with highly skilled workers facing annual losses between Rs 9,900 and Rs 26,600.
Further analysis reveals that, while private vehicles incur lower fuel costs in comparison to public transport fares, public transport is burdened with greater time costs associated with interchanges and overall transit durations. A hypothesis test comparing the journey costs of both modes underlines this discrepancy (See Graph 11: Congestion and productivity loss (10th Sep – 16th Sep 2024)).
Congestion intensifies particularly around festive periods: While congestion is typically an issue, periods surrounding festive occasions witness severe spikes in traffic, leading to notable pollutant surges. Observations from Google traffic speed data, covering major road sections in Delhi between September 15 and October 29, indicate that travel speeds suffered significant reductions during festive seasons. Weekday morning peak speeds diminished by 40.8 percent, while evening peak speeds endured a decrease of 57.9 percent. Weekend metrics reflected a morning reduction of 27.6 percent and an evening decrease of 20.9 percent.
Such congestion tends to escalate further as major festivals approach, with increases of 5-8% during Durga Puja week and upwards of 7-10% in the lead-up to Diwali. (See Graph 12: Reduction in travel speed observed on 25 selected stretches in Delhi.)
- What’s going wrong? Solutions are not being built to scale
Insufficient bus services to accommodate rising travel demand: Despite the expectation that buses would facilitate significant mobility improvements, their presence is dwindling. As of July 2024, the city has failed to comply with the 1998 Supreme Court mandate of 10,000 buses, having only 7,683 buses operational, including 1,970 electric buses. Although Delhi possesses the largest fleet of electric buses, it remains short of the necessary supply. The procurement of an additional 4000 buses is in progress, which could help mitigate the issue.
Nonetheless, with regard to the population’s transportation needs, the number of buses remains vastly inadequate. With a ratio of around 45 buses per lakh population, as per the 2011 census data, this figure falls well short of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs’ service level benchmark of 60 buses per lakh population. In contrast, global cities such as London boast a robust 90 buses per lakh, with Hong Kong at 80, Shanghai at 69, and Seoul at 72.
Bus ridership has declined alarmingly, failing to rebound to pre-pandemic levels: The uptick in buses since 2021 has led to a slight increase in ridership; however, numbers still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Respective ridership reductions stand at 25 percent for DTC buses and 7 percent for cluster buses.
Despite expanded access to bus infrastructure, service remains inadequate: Approximately 57.95 percent of Delhi’s population resides within a 400-meter (5-minute walk) distance to a bus stop, while 83.15 percent are within 800 meters (5-minute cycling distance). Yet, despite the far-reaching bus network, ridership is still lagging significantly. This disparity highlights crucial issues such as last-mile connectivity, accessibility, and the overall reliability of public transport services. Though infrastructural development is underway, hindrances like poor integration, gaps in infrastructure, and competition from private transportation continue to limit the effective utilization of public transport options. (See Graph 15: Delhi bus and metro accessibility)
Bus services continue to be unreliable, despite an increase in fleet numbers: Analysis by CSE utilizing available “Open Transit Data” from the Delhi Transport department reveals that a mere fraction, under one percent, of bus stops maintain a 10-minute waiting time, with a maximum delay of just five minutes. Conversely, nearly 50 percent of bus stops experience excessively long wait times exceeding 15 minutes. Despite the proximity of 59 percent of the population within 400 meters or a 5-minute walk of bus stops, service quality is falling dramatically.
The scant frequency and prolonged waiting durations serve as significant deterrents against public transport adoption. Despite ongoing efforts to expand and modernize the bus fleet, the infrequency of services continues to pose a formidable barrier, undermining public transport’s attractiveness as a reliable commuting option.
Metro services have increased yet remain insufficient: Delhi’s metro system encompasses approximately 351 kilometers of operational network, featuring close to 256 stations. Metro ridership has bounced back more swiftly than bus services post-pandemic. However, since 2019-20, the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) revised its ridership counting methodology, now accounting for the number of corridors utilized rather than unique passenger trips, complicating the assessment of comprehensive ridership recovery compared to bus services.
Prior to 2018, DMRC reported achieving ridership figures at just 47 percent of projected demand, signifying a significant gap between consumer usage and anticipated requirements. A refined trip counting system could provide clearer insights into the metro’s performance and recovery trajectory. Currently, DMRC records the highest ridership figures in comparison to others, yet this is still less than half of what is needed.
Public transport journey costs surpass those of personal vehicles, fostering reliance on private transport: A pressing concern for commuters is the elevated journey costs associated with public transport in the city. CSE’s 2024 survey reveals that overall journey costs for public transport users increase dramatically compared to private transport due to hidden time costs, waiting durations, and interchanges—especially significant for bus users.
The comparative journey costs by mode are as follows: Two-wheeler – Rs. 16/km, Cars – Rs. 35/km, Bus – Rs. 40/km, and Metro – Rs. 47/km.
Notably, around 50 percent of public transport users allocate 18 percent of their annual income towards transportation, while private vehicle owners spend about 12 percent of their income.
An earlier CSE study from 2018 highlighted that, concerning the threshold of 10-15 percent of income allocated for transport as the upper limit for affordability, approximately one-third, or 34 percent, of Delhi’s population could not access basic non-AC bus services due to budget constraints.
The current vehicle taxation framework favors personal vehicle owners: The cascading tax burden on public transport buses significantly exceeds that on private vehicles. Over the last decade, public bus operators have borne tax burdens double that of taxicab operators and quintuple that of private car owners. To address this hidden subsidy problem for personal vehicles, a more rationalized taxation approach is required, in addition to emissions and congestion charges that reflect the “polluter pays” principle. (See Graph 16: Cumulative tax in Delhi per g/kg CO2 emission per passenger)
Lack of integrated transit systems inhibits public transport usage: While physical integration of subway stations with other transportation modes is in progression, current efforts are insufficient.
Enhanced integration and improved last-mile connectivity can revolutionize mobility: According to the Delhi Master Plan 2040, by 2041, half of the population would reside within zones influenced by transit. Furthermore, approximately 60 percent of urban spaces will be within a 15-minute walk from MRTS stations, presenting a tremendous opportunity. However, this potential remains largely unexploited, highlighting the need for mixed-use development within these zones to facilitate a substantial shift towards public transport.
Inadequate focus on non-motorized transportation such as walking and cycling: The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) cites that Delhi’s road network extends for around 16,170 km, with approximately 42 percent of residents utilizing non-motorized transport modes such as walking and cycling for their daily commutes (NIUA, 2018). Alarmingly, 44 percent of roads lack proper footpaths, and only 26 percent of existing footpaths comply with Indian Roads Congress (IRC) standards. While the Delhi government had earmarked 21 road corridors for improvements to promote walking and cycling, progress remains slow, with pedestrianization efforts limited to select areas like Karol Bagh’s Ajmal Khan Road and limited formal developments in Shahjahanabad.
Non-implementation of Supreme Court parking directives: The Supreme Court’s directive to enforce parking regulations set forth in 2019 and the associated Parking Management Area Plan (PMAP) has seen limited progress. While road networks constitute 22 percent of Delhi’s territory, parking takes up over 10 percent of urbanized land. The annual registration of new vehicles generates a demand for parking equivalent to the land size of approximately 615 football fields.
Following the Supreme Court’s directive, initial pilot PMAP implementations in areas such as Lajpat Nagar III, Kamla Nagar, and Krishna Nagar commenced in 2019, yet efforts toward broader city-wide deployment remain at a standstill.
Although emergency actions, as outlined under the Graded Response Action Plan, propose escalating parking fees to dissuade personal vehicle reliance, the lack of a comprehensive PMAP and city-wide adaptive pricing frameworks limits their effectiveness. Effective PMAP implementation necessitates clearly identifying and reserving legal parking zones within each ward, catering to various street activity needs. Measures to prevent unauthorized parking on green spaces and footpaths, as well as penalties for violations, should be standardized to facilitate better adherence and efficiency.
Urgent action is essential:
To align with clean air benchmarks, significant emission reductions are imperative across all primary pollution sources in the region. Addressing the mobility crisis demands immediate attention and robust interventions to mitigate the leading pollutant contributor. It is vital to understand that the mobility crisis cannot be concealed beneath the pollution narratives constructed by farm-related and other external sources.
Incremental changes in public transport systems, the lack of integration, inefficient last-mile connectivity, and undiscovered subsidies promoting personal vehicle use cannot adequately contend with the mobility crisis facing the city.
A transformative strategy is necessary to enhance infrastructure for buses and metro systems, create effective integration practices, incentivize public transport use, and impose necessary penalties for personal vehicle reliance, drawing from successful global best practices.
Key urgent action areas include:
- Ambitious electrification goals backed by a fleet renewal initiative
- Development of an integrated, connected, and dependable public transport framework
- Enhanced networks for walking, cycling, and efficient last-mile connectivity alongside low emission zones
- Implementation of restraint and demand management strategies (such as PMAP, congestion pricing, taxation, etc.)
- Revised taxes to reclaim the genuine cost associated with ownership and usage of personal vehicles
- Compact, transit-oriented urban planning to bring homes and jobs closer, reducing travel demands
- Redirection of budgets from road expansion towards public transport and zero-emission mobility initiatives
- Addressing challenges associated with urban freight
- Innovative financing for sustainable transport solutions
- Establishment of measurable, verifiable impact monitoring frameworks
For more details: Souparno Banerjee, souparno@cseindia.org, 9910864339
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Transportation planning examples
Ming from other sectors. Comprehensive efforts must focus on enhancing public transport, improving non-motorized transit options, implementing effective parking management, and engaging in cohesive urban planning that integrates these elements.
1. **Enhancing Public Transport**:
– **Increase Bus Fleet and Services**: The city must expedite the procurement of additional buses to meet the demand, striving to reach the Supreme Court-mandated target of 10,000 buses. Improved frequency and reliability of service will attract more users and improve overall mobility.
– **Improve Metro Services**: While the metro system has expanded, strategies must be implemented to further enhance reliability and assess ridership levels accurately. Expansion should align with actual demand rather than projected figures.
2. **Reducing Journey Costs**:
– **Reassess Fare Structures**: A comprehensive review of public transport fares, taking into account hidden costs such as waiting times and interchanges, will help in making public transport more competitive against private vehicle usage.
– **Subsidies for Public Transport Users**: Introducing subsidies or fare reductions for low-income users can alleviate the financial burden and encourage greater public transport use.
3. **Integrated Transportation Systems**:
– **Promote Interconnectivity**: Enhanced physical and operational integration of various transport modes, including buses, metros, walking paths, and cycling routes, is crucial. This will facilitate smoother transitions between different forms of transport.
– **Last-Mile Connectivity Solutions**: Developing shared mobility options, such as bike-sharing programs and e-rickshaws, can help bridge the last-mile gap in public transport services.
4. **Focus on Non-Motorized Transportation**:
- **Invest in Walking and Cycling Infrastructure**: Upgrading footpaths and developing dedicated cycling lanes will promote walking and cycling as viable alternatives, reducing reliance on motorized transport.
– **Pedestrianization Initiatives**: Expanding pedestrian-friendly areas in congested urban zones can enhance walkability and draw more people to public transport.
5. **Implementing Parking Management Systems**:
– **Develop and Enforce Comprehensive PMAP**: As outlined in the Supreme Court directive, rolling out a robust Parking Management Area Plan across the city is essential to address the challenges related to unauthorized and inefficient parking.
– **Dynamic Pricing Models**: Establishing pricing strategies that reflect demand can help manage parking supply and discourage excessive personal vehicle use.
6. **Government Involvement and Policy Reform**:
– **Reevaluate Vehicle Taxation and Subsidies**: Reforming the taxation framework to reduce the tax burden on public transport while increasing it on private vehicle ownership will help shift the financial incentives in favor of public transit.
– **Legislative Support**: Mobilizing legislative measures for stricter regulations on emissions and congestion charges is crucial for creating a more sustainable urban transport environment.
without immediate and strategic action toward revamping the mobility framework in Delhi, the city will continue to struggle with congestion, pollution, and public transport inefficiencies. By addressing these multifaceted issues through a coherent and integrated approach, it will be possible to foster a cleaner, more efficient, and user-friendly urban transport system.
