THE MAJOR EUROPEAN STOCK EXCHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
by Marc Angrand
PARIS (Archyde.com) – Major European stock markets are expected to fall on Monday as uncertainties over monetary policy, inflation and the conflict in Ukraine far outweigh the relative relief provided by the results of the first round of the election. presidential election in France, while the price of a barrel of oil fell by more than 2%.
Index futures suggest a decline of 0.87% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.44% for the FTSE 100 in London and 0.77% for the EuroStoxx 50. As for the CAC 40 in Paris, it could yield around 0.6% according to the first indications available.
Emmanuel Macron’s first place in Sunday’s election was initially greeted by a sharp rise in the euro on Asian markets, but this movement subsided over the hours, the second round of April 24 ended. announcing much tighter than in 2017.
Moreover, the week which is beginning, although shortened for the European and American markets since they will close on Friday before the Easter weekend, promises to be dense on the economic side with the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meetings on Wednesday and from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, which will be preceded by the figures for consumer prices in the United States on Tuesday.
US inflation may have reached 1.2% in March compared to February and 8.5% at an annual rate according to the Archyde.com consensus.
In China, the official inflation statistics published on Monday show a higher than expected rise in producer prices, of 8.3% over one year.
US banks will simultaneously kick off the publication of quarterly results from Wednesday.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended in mixed order on Friday, with the Dow Jones up slightly but the Nasdaq still penalized by technology stocks in a context of a continuous rise in bond yields.
The Dow Jones Index gained 0.4%, or 137.55 points, to 34,721.12 but the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 11.7 points, or 0.26%, to 4,488.51 and the Nasdaq Composite lost fell 186.3 points (-1.34%) to 13,711.00.
Microsoft, Tesla and Nvidia fell 1.46% to 4.49%. Conversely, the rise in yields favored large banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co (+1.83%), Wells Fargo (+2.09%) or Citi (+1.71%).
Over the week, the S&P fell 1.26%, the Dow 0.27% and the Nasdaq 3.86%.
Futures so far point to an opening lower of around 0.4% for the Dow, 0.6% for the S&P-500 and 1% for the Nasdaq.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index lost 0.84% less than an hour from closing, penalized by the decline in major technology stocks in the wake of the American Nasdaq.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite fell 1.87% and the CSI 300 2.48% as the country’s health situation continued to fuel fears of a marked slowdown in growth, pending further measures support from political and monetary authorities.
CHANGES
The euro initially benefited from the results of the first round of the French presidential election, rising to $1.0955, but then reduced its gains, and is now trading at 1.0881 (+0.05% ).
The dollar index, which measures the fluctuations of the greenback against a benchmark basket, shows an increase of 0.12% but remains below 100 points, a threshold it crossed on Friday for the first time in almost two years.
RATE
The upward trend in US Treasury bond yields continues, still fueled by the prospect of a rapid tightening of US monetary policy, combining an increase in key rates and a reduction in the central bank’s balance sheet.
That of two-year securities, the most sensitive to interest rate expectations, took more than six basis points to 2.5818%, the ten-year more than five points to 2.7743% and the 30-year two points to 2.7659%.
The US ten-year yield is thus higher than its Chinese equivalent for the first time since 2010.
OIL
The oil market, which has already posted two consecutive weeks of decline, is widening its losses, the trend remaining weighed down by the recourse of major consumer countries to their strategic reserves and by large-scale confinements in China, which are curbing demand.
Brent fell 2.28% to 100.44 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 2.37% to 95.93 dollars.
(edited by Bertrand Boucey)