The election is considered to be of utmost importance both nationally and internationally because a Trump victory would raise questions about the future of democracy in the USA and its continued presence in the Western alliance.
The peculiarities of the US electoral system mean that the decision about the future president is made in only a handful of states, the so-called swing states – and in the end could depend on the votes of a few tens of thousands of voters.
In these seven key states – six of which Joe Biden won in the 2020 election – the outcome of the election between Trump and Harris is currently on a knife edge:
Pennsylvania (19 electors)
The state, which is part of the industrial region in the north of the USA known as the Rust Belt, was hotly contested in 2016 and 2020 and it will be no different in 2024. Whoever wins Pennsylvania will have already achieved an important milestone in the race for the White House, given that there are 19 electoral votes. The US president is elected indirectly by a body of 538 electors, in which the majority of at least 270 must be achieved.
The state in the northeast of the USA, with the metropolises of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, used to be traditionally Democratic. But the industrial decline in the region led to Trump and the Republicans gaining support.
Harris and her Democrats point to the infrastructure projects initiated under Biden, whereas Trump promises a future without inflation and crime, especially for the white rural population. Erie County in the very north of the state is considered a kind of election barometer: Since 2008, the future US president has always received the majority of votes there.
North Carolina (16 electors)
Winning the conservative state on the east coast would be a tough task for the Democrats: the last time a Democratic candidate won in North Carolina was in 2008, when Barack Obama won. The Democrats are relying primarily on young voters in the state, among whom new interest in the election was sparked by Harris’ entry into the race. Younger voters are particularly interested in concepts on how the cost of living, which has risen under Biden, can be reduced again.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
The southern state of Georgia had been firmly in Republican hands since the mid-1990s – but Biden won there in 2020. Trump refused to accept his defeat and spoke of electoral fraud. In a phone call with Georgia’s election official, he even demanded that he “find” the 11,780 votes needed for his victory. Trump was later charged in Georgia for this.
To repeat Biden’s success in 2020, Harris would have to score points in Georgia, especially with young black voters. However, the state’s election authority, which is controlled by conservatives, recently tightened the regulations on proof of identity when casting a vote, which could have a negative impact on the turnout of black voters. Local officials have also been given greater powers to challenge the result in their districts.
Michigan (15 electors)
The state, located on the Great Lakes and home to the automobile metropolis of Detroit, is also part of the Rust Belt. Trump won there in 2016, and then Biden in 2020. Voters of Arab origin played a significant role in Biden’s victory – Harris is faced with the task of convincing them again despite the massive US support for Israel in the Gaza war.
Wisconsin (10 electors)
The state in the Midwest was once known for its balanced, downright polite politics. In the meantime, the political conflict between Democrats and Republicans has also become significantly more intense in Wisconsin. While some are concerned about preserving US democracy, others fear economic decline. Since 1988, the Democratic candidate has almost always won in Wisconsin – the exception being the 2016 election, when Trump became president.
Arizona (11 electors)
The desert state was long considered a Republican stronghold, but the influx of Hispanics and liberal-minded residents from the neighboring state of California changed the electorate structure. Four years ago, Joe Biden managed the feat of winning Arizona: albeit with a lead of only 10,457 votes over Trump.
Nevada (6 electors)
The state in the west of the USA, famous for the casino metropolis of Las Vegas, last voted in 2004 for the Republican candidate, the then incumbent George W. Bush. Economic issues also play a central role in Nevada – many voters are frustrated by the astronomical real estate prices. Nevada has a special feature: Unlike in the rest of the country, voters have the option of ticking “neither” on the ballot if they find neither Harris nor Trump convincing.
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The Crucial Swing States in the 2024 US Presidential Election
The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with Democrat Kamala Harris facing off against Republican Donald Trump in a battle for the White House. The outcome of the election will depend on the results in a handful of key swing states, which could ultimately come down to the votes of just a few tens of thousands of voters.
In recent elections, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada have emerged as crucial swing states, with the power to swing the election one way or the other. Here’s a breakdown of each state and what’s at stake in the 2024 election.
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is a crucial prize in the presidential election. The state has traditionally leaned Democratic, but Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 and Biden’s narrow win in 2020 show that it’s up for grabs. Harris will need to convince voters in the industrial Rust Belt region that she has a plan to revitalize the economy and address their concerns about healthcare and education.
North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
North Carolina is another key battleground state, with 16 electoral votes up for grabs. The last time a Democratic candidate won in North Carolina was in 2008, when Barack Obama was elected president. Harris will need to energize young voters and convince them that she has a vision for the state’s future.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Georgia has been a reliably Republican state since the mid-1990s, but Biden’s victory in 2020 showed that it’s not a lock for Trump. Harris will need to win over young black voters and convince them that she’s committed to addressing their concerns about racial justice and economic inequality.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Michigan, with its 15 electoral votes, is another key battleground state in the Rust Belt. Trump won the state in 2016, but Biden took it back in 2020. Harris will need to convince
Swing states 2024
The Battle for the Swing States: Where the 2024 US Presidential Election Will Be Decided
The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most crucial and unpredictable in recent history. With the contestants being Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the stakes are high, and the outcome will have far-reaching implications not only for the United States but also for the Western alliance and global democracy. According to R&WS Research Team, the latest polls suggest that the election will come down to a handful of swing states, where the outcome is currently on a knife edge.
The Swing States: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Florida
These seven states, six of which were won by Joe Biden in the 2020 election, hold the key to the presidency. Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is a crucial battleground state in the Rust Belt region. Trump won the state in 2016, but Biden reclaimed it in 2020. Harris will need to convince voters in the state that she has a plan to revitalize the economy and address the concerns of the white rural population.
North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, is another critical swing state. The state has traditionally been conservative, but the Democrats are counting on young voters to turn the tide in their favor. Georgia, also with 16 electoral votes, is a state that Biden won in 2020, but Trump has remained popular there. Harris will need to win over young black voters and overcome the hurdles of voter suppression in the state.
Michigan, with its 15 electoral votes, is another Rust Belt state that Trump won in 2016 but Biden won in 2020. Harris will need to convince Arab American voters in the state to back her. Wisconsin, with its 10 electoral votes, is a state that has traditionally voted Democratic, but Trump’s victory in 2016 showed that it is not a guaranteed win for the Democrats. Harris will need to address the concerns of voters who are worried about economic decline and preserving US democracy.
Arizona, with its 11 electoral votes, is a state that has long been considered a Republican stronghold, but it has trended Democratic in recent years. Harris will need to win over voters in the state who are concerned about the economy and immigration.
Florida, with its 29 electoral votes, is another critical swing state that Trump won in 2016 but Biden won in 2020. Harris will need to convince voters in the state that she has a plan to address the concerns of Hispanic voters and to protect the environment.
The Importance of Swing States
The swing states will ultimately decide the presidency, and the outcome will depend on a few tens of thousands of voters in each state. As The New York Times notes, the presidential race will likely come down to voters in eight states that remain competitive. These states hold 90 electoral votes, which is more than a third of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
The Election’s National and International Significance
The 2024 US presidential election is crucial not only for the United States but also for global democracy and the Western alliance. A Trump victory would raise questions about the future of democracy in the USA and its continued presence in the Western alliance. As US News notes, the election will have far-reaching implications for the economy, foreign policy, and social issues.
the 2024 US presidential election is a high-stakes contest that will be decided in a handful of swing states. The outcome will have significant implications not only for the United States but also for global democracy and the Western alliance. Voters in the swing states hold the key to the presidency, and it is up to Harris and Trump to convince them that they have a plan to address their concerns and lead the country forward.
