Despite the rise it has been experiencing recently, the price of blue is at a minimum compared to the prices of the last two years
For Ruben Ramallo
24/04/2022 – 08,16hs
on the last wheels the blue dollar showed some recoverysince from April 18 to date it shows a rise slightly above 3% and although it managed to recover the level of $200 per unit, the losses that it has been posting for a long time in this part have not been reversed.
The above statement can be applied even to quotes in nominal terms, since to find a sale price similar to the current purchase price, one must go back to October of last year. Moreover, from that moment the blue began an upward cycle that reached its peak in the third week of January, when it traded at 223.50 pesos.
It is clear that if the analysis is carried out taking into account the inflation accumulated in recent months, the results are clearly negative. In fact, taking into account the current purchase price, in the last 24 months there was no time when the quote adjusted for retail inflation will be below 200 pesos.
Despite the latest increases, the price of blue is at a minimum compared to the prices of the last two years
Blue dollar: is it business?
In this sense, the following graph is more than eloquent in this regard, since in the period between March 2020 and April, all he who bought and kept the greenbacks in his possession lost money. Of course, losses vary from time to time.
Between March 2020 and April 2021 everyone who bought and kept greenbacks in their possession lost money
Thus, for example, those who bear the brunt are those who did it in full pandemicbecause in the first months the updated price fluctuated between $255 and $280, but everything got complicated in October, because in the third week of the month nothing less than $366 per unit, adjusted for inflation.
After that flash, which was suffocated by the intervention of the Banco Central and the National Securities Commission, a period was entered in which the declines lasted until April 2021, when it reached a minimum of $220.
From that moment on, he entered a “lateral channel” in which the price ranged between $220 and $245, which lasted until the signing of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
Once the approval by the National Congress, the blue broke that floor and with some twists and turns it pierced the floor of 200 pesos for some wheels, to more recently recover what had now become a ceiling.
How much should the blue dollar rise to offset CPI-adjusted losses?
How much should the blue dollar rise to recover what was lost?
So far mention has been made of the prices and the price fluctuationsbut the most disturbing thing for the “dollar maniacs” is to become aware of the depth of the loss or, in other words, how much the blue should rise to match the price at which it was bought.
From the graph it appears that if you take in average year 2020the rise should be close to 50%, but if the peak period is taken into account, which was between September and December, that percentage rises above 60%, with a peak of almost 100% for those who bought with the dollar to $195 at face value.
Those who bought the blue dollar during the pandemic did not do business
For those who bought over the past year, the issue is somewhat better, since in this case the gap compared to the average is somewhat less than 30%.
Finally the “2022 model” buyers They are also complicated, particularly those that made operations at the beginning of the year, since the rise for the same price in January should be 28% and for February of the order of 20 percent.
In any case, these are percentages that, according to analysts, will be well above estimates for the short term, given a series of factors that alleviate the demand for coverage. But in a context of high uncertainty Politically and economically, anything can happen.
