Written by: Wu Zhongjie, Chen Qinghui Researcher: Qiu Yunzhen Producer: Wu Zhongjie
Germany Today, Taiwan Tomorrow
This year will be Germany’s coldest and darkest winter since World War II.
In order to counteract the sanctions imposed by European countries, Russia did not hesitate to completely stop the transmission of natural gas, triggering an energy crisis in Germany and even the whole of Europe. It has led to inflation, disorganized supply chains, a collapsed middle class and polarized politics. But why didn’t they back down? EU political and economic experts: This time, national interests must be placed before commercial interests.
Germany’s dilemma of the century is also an issue that Taiwan must resolve. Under the tension in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan’s energy self-sufficiency rate is only 2.3%. How should we choose if we can’t quit China? Assuming that the island is besieged, natural gas, oil, etc. cannot enter, what should Taiwan’s people’s livelihood and industrial electricity do? The Shangzhou interview team flew nearly 9,400 kilometers, went deep into the 6 cities of Deyi to interview experts such as bankers, TSMC suppliers, and NGO leaders, and looked at Taiwan from the first scene of the European storm, bringing you more thoughts and solutions.
On September 2, Gazprom announced on the official Telegram that the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which is responsible for transporting natural gas to Germany, will be suspended indefinitely due to a malfunction.
This is the third time since Russia invaded Ukraine that the pipeline of Nord Stream 1 has been completely shut down, in order to “stop the gas” and counter the financial, embargo and other sanctions imposed by European countries.
It is like a fire, which has caused energy problems in Germany and even the whole of Europe. . .
Stop 1 “Berlin’s electricity bill is 3 times more expensive, and the salary is not enough…
According to statistics, the wholesale price of electricity in Germany this summer is nearly four times that of the same period last year, and both France and Italy have also increased by four to five times. Intervene in electricity prices and even decouple natural gas from electricity prices.
According to the latest statistics, Germany experienced a monthly trade deficit in May, the country’s first in 31 years, mainly due to the soaring import prices of energy and raw materials.
“Politicians are starting to tell us to save money, because the next electricity bill may be double, triple, or even more,” said Shi, 50-year-old head of an online marketing company sitting in a cafe in Berlin. Sven Deutschlander counts it for me.
He said that those at the grassroots level who receive basic salaries only earn more than NT$40,000 a month, following deducting taxes, insurance, and rent, plus inflation and doubled electricity prices, “they don’t earn enough to spend! “
Why does Russia have a way to keep Germany in the dark?
After World War II, on the one hand, Germany seemed to buy indulgences to make up for the crimes committed during the war; on the other hand, it believed that through trade, it might have a more stable political relationship with the Soviet Union, so it began to purchase a large amount of natural gas from the Soviet Union.
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, 55% of the country’s natural gas came from Russia. In addition to being used for power generation and industrial production, this natural gas also flows into more than half of Germany’s households to supply heating in winter.
“This winter will be the fourth major wave that has changed the country in more than a dozen years. Just wait and see.” Swin, who has always been concerned regarding politics, said that energy will be the result of the European debt crisis, the refugee wave and COVID-19. After that, the country’s fourth major shock.
Stop 2″ Stuart’s food soared in half a year, and electric heaters were out of stock…
“Tomatoes have risen from 2 or 3 euros per kilogram to 6 or 7 euros, and the sunflower oil that is usually used for cooking has risen from 2 euros to 4 or 5 euros a bottle…” In a supermarket on the outskirts of the German industrial city of Stuttgart, Zheng Lingyun, vice president of MAG, a subsidiary of Taiwan Youjia Group, gave us a breakdown of how prices have soared in the past six months.
Spreading out economic data, inflation in the United States has cooled in July, but in Europe, the inflation rate continued to hit a record high until August. At the same time, the consumer confidence index fell to a record low.
However, Germans are more worried regarding how to spend this winter than the economy.
They started snapping up electric heaters, which were out of stock on shopping sites. Zheng Lingyun has two newly bought electric heaters in her house, but she said that the government is worried that if everyone uses it at the same time in winter, “the power grid will fail. It is a problem that threatens the survival of large enterprises. A possible supply chain disaster is on the horizon.
Stop 3″ Ludwigshafen chemical industry leader may stop work, medicine and semiconductor all suffer
We came to a town that holds the lifeblood of hundreds, if not millions, of products around the world.
Here, there is the headquarters of BASF, a global leader in chemical materials. It is almost as large as Xinyi District, with regarding 200 factories producing regarding 25,000 kinds of raw materials. From jeans dyes, perfume smells to medicines, semiconductors, etc., almost all the upstream chemical raw materials of all kinds of products you can think of and can’t think of have its shadow.
But now, there is a serious challenge of whether it can continue to operate. Because the plant relies on natural gas, once the natural gas stock in the plant falls below 50%, it may stop work. If the production stops, it will inevitably impact downstream industries such as plasticization, medicine, automobiles, and semiconductors.
“The German economy is likely to plunge into its worst crisis since World War II,” the group’s chief executive, Martin Brudermüller, said in an interview. According to the calculation of the International Monetary Fund, if Russia is completely cut off, it will hit 4.8% of Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) output value. How serious is the situation? How did a choke-choked energy crisis detonate four major global chaos? How did the inflationary disease pushed up by the energy crisis make Milan, the fashion capital, also fall? Why might the middle class become the “new poor” or even disappear? If it continues, what will be the impact on the global supply chain? In this issue, there will be first-hand reports on the scene and in-depth analysis of special articles.
※For the wonderful full text, please refer to the 1817th issue of “Business Week”.
※This article is published with permission from Business Week, and reproduction without permission is prohibited.
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