2024-01-23 11:09:34
According to the CyclOpe report, the price index of the main raw materials fell by 14 points in 2023. A decline which is expected to continue this year.
Coal, nickel, corn: world prices of industrial and agricultural raw materials are expected to continue to fall in 2024, with the notable exception of uranium, copper, aluminum, cocoa, wheat and soybean meal , according to the CyclOpe index of international markets published this Tuesday.
In 2023, the index, which brings together the variations in the prices of the main raw materials listed around the world, showed a decline of 14 percentage points compared to that of 2022 (in dollars).
“Many of the big increases in 2022, like natural gas, lithium or sea freight prices, had been the subject of a bubble, and the destiny of a bubble is to burst,” commented to the ‘AFP Philippe Chalmin, professor of economics at Paris-Dauphine and author of the forecast report.
For 2024, “there are so many geopolitical, climatic and health uncertainties that the forecasting exercise remains very difficult on markets which react to all the tensions on the planet of which they are ultimately the best indicators”, adds -he in his report.
Demand for lithium and cobalt “less strong than anticipated”
For ores and metals, two trends oppose each other with energy transition ores considered strategic for batteries – nickel, lithium or cobalt – which should remain bearish, while copper might continue its progression and “find the threshold of 10,000 dollars per ton during the year itself.
“The rise in demand for ‘strategic’ metals is still awaited”, with the exception of copper “set to become the most strategic of all raw materials in the years to come”, notes CyclOpe.
“In 2023, demand for lithium and cobalt was lower than expected, and Indonesian nickel production grew more quickly,” the report explains. Lithium prices have lost 54% on average in 2023 and those of cobalt 46%.
Uranium supported by the revival of nuclear power
Progression expected in 2024, that of uranium, supported by the resumption of nuclear power and geopolitical concerns which are “rising”, from Niger to Kazakhstan: at the beginning of 2024, “uranium has passed the bar of 100 dollars per pound in cash ( U305) when it was worth 20 dollars at the end of 2016. As for coal, the price of which has fallen significantly in 2023, “it should continue to decrease with the reduction in European and perhaps also Chinese purchases”.
In terms of agricultural products, “2024 will be the year of El Nino”, a climatic phenomenon which is characterized by abnormally high temperatures along the South Pacific in particular. The main unknown concerns Brazil and its crops (soy, corn, sugar, coffee, orange juice).
In 2024, according to CyclOpe, world prices (in dollars) of corn are expected to fall by 10 percentage points, soybeans by 6, rice by 7, sugar by 10, cotton by 16, wool by 14, palm oil 18 and soybean oil 19.
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