In its forecasts, the cyclope circle of Philippe Chalmin and Yves Jégourel expects a 5% increase in the average price of nickel in 2022. Good news for the three major New Caledonian factories, provided they produce enough metal, for steel and electric batteries.
After the surges in commodity prices in 2021, 2022 promises to be uncertain, between geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, China’s appetite for metal and nickel imports, and the “certainty” of a continuation of the container crisis, indicate the annual forecasts of the CyclOpe circle published on Thursday.
In 2021, all the raw materials analyzed by the Cyclope, barometer of the world raw materials markets, soared, with the exception of pork prices, which fell in China and Europe.
Nickel
For nickel, on average, the price increase was 27% last year. “Stainless steel has driven the demand for nickel, even more than electric batteries”, comments Philippe Chalmin, the great guru of raw materials. This is enough to reassure two of the three factories in New Caledonia for the future. KNS and SLN produce the high-grade stainless steel alloy.
“Our forecasts envisage a 5% increase for nickel in 2022, with an average price of 20,000 dollars per tonne. Demand for batteries will still take time to materialize and let’s not forget the new production capacities in Indonesia” .
Nevertheless, “such a price is good for New Caledonia”, continues Philippe Chalmin, professor at Paris-Dauphine University, who chairs CyclOpe. And for the moment, nickel has stabilized around 22,600 dollars per ton, following having reached 24,000 dollars a few days ago.
“At this price of 20,000 dollars a ton, and even at 17,000 dollars, provided they produce enough, the factories of the Territory can breathe.”
energy
On the energy side, if in 2021, oil prices have “dressed their wounds”, those of gas have “quadrupled on average”, with a CyclOpe index which gained 397 points. “Currently, natural gas is twice as expensive as oil in thermal equivalence” takes over for AFP Philippe Chalmin.
Gas
The explanations are initially climatic: a drought in China affected its hydroelectric production, Europe lacked wind for its wind production. But it is above all the tensions between Europe and Russia around the Nordstream II gas pipeline and the increase in LNG (liquefied natural gas) prices in Asia which are at the origin of the surge in gas prices, underlines the report. .
Russia
On the gas, “we should not expect, even in the medium term at the prices that prevailed in 2019, and this all the more so as the energy transition will continue” indicates the Cyclops, pointing to Russia, “expert in the great diplomatic game” who has “played the gas weapon” as well vis-à-vis “from Europe” what of “China”, his ally.
“If we had the worst, if Russia invaded Ukraine, the barrel of oil would explode the ceiling, and there would be a shortage of gas to be expected in Europe” notes Mr. Chalmin.
Soaring
Last year, the average rise in the global indicator of the Cyclope covering the evolution of the average price of around forty strategic raw materials (from steel to zyrconium, via aluminium, cocoa, coffee, coal , iron, gas, wool, gold or soy), was 49 points.
That is more than double what the CyclOpe analysts themselves had forecast at the start of the year (+19 points). An unparalleled increase “since the financial crisis of 2007″, Mr. Chalmin said.
“Major logistical breakdown”
“No one saw the current energy crisis coming, started by gas”, which coincided with a “big logistical breakdown” world and an outbreak “a third” world agricultural and food prices, compared to 2020, he detailed.
Overall for 2022, excluding major geopolitical or climatic event, “and assuming a soft landing of the Covid crisis”, the Cyclope expects a return to normal, or even price cuts on certain products due in particular to the slowdown in Chinese growth. In total, he predicts that the rise in commodity prices will be limited to 4% on average.
But it is a “year full of uncertainties”, warned Mr. Chalmin, and “a little more than in other years”.
On the agricultural and food side, the Cyclope emphasizes that “the risks of social instability have once once more become a reality” with soaring food prices. But for the major importing countries (Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Indonesia), the bill for 2021 might be financed by the increase in revenues linked to oil and especially gas.
The sharp increases in foodstuffs last year are mainly due to China, which in 2021 became the world’s largest importer of cereals, notably by increasing its purchases of corn by 152%, which in turn pushed prices up.
With regard to the maritime freight crisis, “no sign of improvement” is not discerned. “On the contrary, the bottlenecks are getting stronger with the expansion of Omicron”, notes the analysis.
“At the beginning of January 2022, 11.5 million containers were waiting in the 13 most important ports on the planet”, according to the report, which predicts that “container freight rates will remain high” in 2022, with deadlines that “will only begin to shrink if the pandemic declines sharply in Asia”. The cost of maritime freight, the main downside for the French Overseas Territories.
Twitter @Alain_Jeannin
