Hurricane Danielle, which is advancing at unprecedented latitudes on the North Atlantic, should bring unstable and windy weather to the north-west of France from the week of September 5, while waiting for thunderstorms. A situation closely followed by meteorologists because only 1.4% of tropical storms have been born further north than Danielle in the last 170 years. Explanations and expected consequences on the European continent.
Decidedly, the summer of 2022 will go down in history for all climatologists. While records of heat and records of drought follow one another, it is now the hurricane season on the Atlantic which challenges by its atypical side, this year. First characterized by a record calm, it becomes much more active at the beginning of September, as evidenced by the Weather channel on its site. Among the currently active tropical waves, Tropical Cyclone Danielle is particularly under surveillance.
Category “one in five”, it has developed in the middle of the Atlantic but much further north than usual. It should reach Europe next week.
Possible scenarios
Two major scenarios are possible according to La Chaîne Météo: either Danielle continues its rise towards the North of the Atlantic to evolve into a simple depression, or it continues its trajectory towards Europe, to intensify in a flow from west to east. back of the cold drop that should concern us this week. At a minimum, it should bring unstable and windy weather to the north-west of France from the start of the week.
Relative consensus on the trajectory of #Danielle with a majority tube in the direction of Europe. The cyclone is expected to rapidly lose its tropical characteristics while weakening or disappearing as it approaches the European continent (1/2) pic.twitter.com/MncGP2H6FP
— Alexis Vandevoorde (@AlexyMeteo) September 4, 2022
But the Weather Channel warns, “The complexity of the processes that govern these tropical systems will make forecasting particularly tricky over the next few days. Don’t be surprised if the reliability of forecasts is less good! when the systems go back towards Europe”.
While on Friday, several models envisaged a more or less long-term trajectory towards Western Europe, the latest forecasts for this weekend are less pessimistic.
This is a textbook case! this very vast depression is surmounted by cold air at altitude, hence its name of cold drop. But by rotating on itself, it brings hot air back to France. Then, the #thunderstorms will multiply this week. pic.twitter.com/wEnD4I4Xkf
— The Weather Channel (@lachainemeteo) September 4, 2022
Over the next few days, Danielle should curve its trajectory towards the northwest to go up towards the temperate latitudes. However, there is still very poor reliability at this distant timeframe, knowing that the forecast of tropical phenomena is often uncertain up to two or three days into the future.
Mid-week thunderstorms
However, the first elements already make it possible to forecast thunderstorms which will become widespread this Monday in a heavy atmosphere.
The #thunderstorms, which remained very rare this Sunday, will become widespread tomorrow Monday in a heavy atmosphere. Here are the regions most at risk. Don’t count on it for generous watering just yet, as these thunderstorms will remain diffuse for now u26a1ufe0fu26c8ufe0f pic.twitter.com/8wyOry4YV8
— The Weather Channel (@lachainemeteo) September 4, 2022
As for Danielle, the cold drop modeled for the next few days already suggests that its rotation of stormy disturbances will eventually invade France in the middle of the week.
Here is the cold drop modeled for the next few days, with its rotation of stormy disturbances that will eventually invade France in the middle of the week. pic.twitter.com/EuEYVHEEsK
— The Weather Channel (@lachainemeteo) September 4, 2022
Logical, this very vast depression being surmounted by cold air at altitude, hence its name of cold drop. Paradoxical given the circumstances. Well, not quite, since by turning on itself, it will bring hot air back to France. Conclusion, thunderstorms will multiply this week.
