Cuba’s effective population has fallen below 10 million people, parliamentary session reported on Friday.
The deputy head of the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, presented alarming data on Cuban demographics during the debate of the Migration Law project.
As of December 31, 2023, the effective population was 10,055,968. However, in the first months of 2024, the number has decreased, with a continued decline in births and an increase in emigration.
Alfonso Fraga confirmed that Cuba’s current population is less than 10 million and will continue to decline.
This demographic change affects plans and programs in the economic, social and environmental spheres, the specialist noted.
Over the past three years, emigration has increased, with more Cubans residing outside the country for long periods. ONEI reports that, at the end of 2023, 1,249,733 people remained outside the country, and 75% of them did not have effective residence in Cuba.
Only Havana, Holguín and Santiago de Cuba maintain the status of “millionaire towns,” although the capital has less than 2 million and the other two cities have less than a million and are in continuous decline.
The largest population declines are observed in Havana, Cienfuegos and Mayabeque, while Granma, Guantánamo and Santiago de Cuba show the smallest decreases.
This phenomenon heralds an aging economy, with high costs in caring for the growing elderly population and a reduced labor base, Alfonso Fraga also warned.
Effective population vs. Emigrant
The applied methodology considers the effective population to be all those who, in a calendar year, were born in Cuba or abroad, but have resided permanently (180 days or more of residence) on the island, during the last 365 days and have not died.
Likewise, the status of immigrant or emigrant is defined by the length of time physically staying in Cuba for one year. An immigrant is someone who has spent 180 days or more in the country, while an emigrant is someone who has spent less than 180 days in national territory during the year.
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