Tropical activity in the Caribbean once again captures the attention of meteorologists, who warn of the possible development of a tropical depression or even the storm Sara in the next few days. Authorities ask residents of Cuba and Florida to remain attentive to the progress of this system.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that a tropical wave over the center of the Caribbean Sea is generating areas of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and that environmental conditions could facilitate its development.
“A tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system moves west of the Caribbean Sea,” the NHC said. The probability of formation is 40% in the next 48 hours, increasing to 80% in the next seven days.
AccuWeather has also echoed this situation and explained that the central and western Caribbean Sea has favorable factors for the development of tropical systems. This includes high humidity, low wind shear and warm waters, factors that are key for any developing system to strengthen.
Additionally, AccuWeather noted that wind shear in the northern Caribbean could limit the northward movement of a potential storm. However, he warned that this natural barrier “could dissolve during the third week of the month and allow any tropical storm to move north, in which case people in South Florida and the Keys would need to remain alert.”
Possible trajectory over Cuba and Florida
The meteorologist Dave Osterbergfrom FOX 13, commented that this disturbance could move westward across the Caribbean Sea, where conditions continue to be favorable for cyclonic development.
The 2024 hurricane season will not give up. There is an 80% chance for development in the Caribbean in the next few days. The next name on this list is Sara. Most of the computer models develop it and eventually move it north or northeast. pic.twitter.com/IBhu919OkU
— Dave Osterberg Fox13 (@DaveOFox13) November 12, 2024
“It’s easy to see that we could have a storm developing there,” Osterberg said. From there, the model projections are divided as to the possible trajectory of a developed system.
“There are only a couple of places I could go once this plays out,” Osterberg added. «One is through Cuba towards the northeast, without reaching the United States. The other is possibly towards south Florida. “So there is that potential mid to late next week.”
If so, it would correspond to the typical behavior of many of these previous cyclonic systems that occurred at this time of year. Cyclones tend to look north or northwest, so it is quite likely that Cuba is in the system’s path.
According to the NHC, people in Central America, southeastern Mexico, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and southern Florida should stay informed about this possible cyclonic formation, which could bring heavy rain and strong thunderstorms to the region. since the end of this week.
The hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but the recent behavior of the climate in the Caribbean shows that conditions can still be generated for the development of tropical cyclones.
#Cuba #Florida #alert #cyclonic #development #Sara #Caribbean
**Interview with Meteorologist Dave Osterberg from FOX 13**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Dave. Can you provide us with an overview of the current tropical activity in the Caribbean?
**Dave Osterberg:** Absolutely. Right now, we’re monitoring a tropical wave that’s positioned over the center of the Caribbean Sea. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for its development into a tropical depression, or possibly even a storm, which we could name Sara.
**Editor:** The National Hurricane Center has mentioned a 40% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, rising to 80% in the upcoming week. What factors are contributing to this increased likelihood?
**Dave Osterberg:** Exactly. The central and western Caribbean Sea has high humidity, warm water, and low wind shear—these are all critical factors for tropical system development. Essentially, the warmer the water and the lower the wind shear, the better the chance for the system to strengthen.
**Editor:** You mentioned a potential movement of the storm towards Cuba and Florida. What should residents in those areas be aware of?
**Dave Osterberg:** Residents in Cuba and South Florida need to stay alert as we could see this system track westward across the Caribbean. While current wind shear in the northern Caribbean may limit the storm’s northward progress, there’s a potential for that to change. If we see those conditions dissolve, it could allow the storm to move northward, which would require vigilance from those in South Florida and the Keys.
**Editor:** Are there any other warnings or messages you want to convey to the public at this time?
**Dave Osterberg:** Yes, I urge everyone to keep an eye on updates from the National Hurricane Center and local weather stations. It’s always best to be prepared. As we move deeper into hurricane season, it’s crucial to have your emergency plans and supplies ready just in case. It’s better to be overprepared than caught off guard.
**Editor:** Thank you, Dave, for your insights and advice as we continue to monitor this situation.
**Dave Osterberg:** You’re welcome! Stay safe out there, everyone.
