Crude Prices lose ground despite Russia-Ukraine tensions: Geopolitical risk and oil exports via the Black Sea analyzed

2023-08-07 19:38:02

Crude prices lost some ground on Monday, following hitting highs in almost four months and ignoring for now the geopolitical risk linked to the growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea.

The barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in October, fell 1.04% to 85.34 dollars.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in September, dropped 1.06% to 81.94 dollars, below the symbolic threshold of 82 dollars.

The two references had hit their highest price in almost four months at the start of the session.

On Saturday evening, Russian missiles hit buildings of the Ukrainian aircraft manufacturer Motor Sich, a company “of strategic importance”, several hours following the attack by a Ukrainian drone on a Russian oil tanker in the Black Sea.

These attacks “increase the geopolitical risk” due to the “large export volumes of crude oil and petroleum products via the Black Sea”, DNB analysts say.

The number of attacks has increased on both sides since Moscow refused in mid-July to renew a UN-brokered agreement that allowed Ukrainian grain exports.

According to DNB analysts citing data from Rystad Energy, around 2.1 million barrels per day of oil and one million barrels per day of refined products are currently exported through the Black Sea.

If “significant volumes of crude oil and petroleum products are therefore exposed to increased geopolitical risk”, the supply is not interrupted for the moment, however, specify the analysts.

In addition, in Poland, a leak on one of the two pipes of the Druzhba pipeline, transporting oil between maritime terminals and Germany, caused the partial suspension of its activities which should resume on Tuesday, the operator announced on Sunday. Polish PERN.

No potential cause for this leak has been mentioned.

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