War seems inevitable in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday evening ordered his troops to enter the separatist territories of Donbass, following recognizing their independence. A direct violation of the peace process signed in Minsk in 2015 which proves that Moscow does not intend to prefer the diplomatic way in the resolution of the conflict.
The head of state had nevertheless maintained that he had no intention of invading Ukraine. But no agreement was finally found, despite multiple attempts at negotiations organized by Westerners, and in particular Emmanuel Macron. Russia might then be on the verge of invading Ukraine with its 150,000 troops amassed near its neighbor’s borders, according to the United States.
What are the separatist territories concerned?
On Tuesday, the Russian Parliament must endorse the decision of the head of the Kremlin to deploy a “peacekeeping” force in the two regions of Dombass, Donetsk and Lugansk, a mining and industrial basin bordering Russia, of which he recognized independence. The “leaders” of these regions called on Vladimir Putin on Monday to recognize their sovereignty.
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These two regions broke with Ukrainian power in 2014, during the civil war known as the Dombass war, which has pitted pro-Russian separatists once morest Ukrainian forces for eight years. Russia being accused of supporting the separatists in particular militarily, in addition to financial aid, supplies of vaccines once morest Covid-19 and the issuance of at least 800,000 Russian passports to residents, lists The Guardian. Their independence, proclaimed following referendums, is not recognized by the international community.
Moscow and Kiev accuse each other of being responsible for the outbreak of violence in a conflict that has claimed more than 14,000 lives since its outbreak in 2014, in the wake of the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea by Russia.
Why does Putin recognize their independence?
Vladimir Putin therefore announced Monday evening to recognize the independence of the separatist territories in eastern Ukraine, and signed in the wake of agreements “of friendship and mutual aid” with these territories. This decision is likely to ignite the powder a little more at a time when Westerners fear a large-scale Russian offensive.
Above all, this measure opens the door to Russian military deployment in these regions, at the request of local authorities who would therefore be recognized as legitimate by Moscow, and in the name of the “protection” of Russian citizens living there. It therefore legitimizes the decision to send troops to these areas which are no longer considered by Russia as belonging to Ukraine. The path towards an open and armed conflict seems inevitable since two decrees of the Russian president ask the Ministry of Defense that “the armed forces of Russia (assume) the functions of peacekeeping on the territory” of the “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Vladimir Putin has also signed mutual aid agreements with these two separatist entities. The 10-year agreements create “the legal basis for the presence” in these territories “of the Russian military units necessary to maintain peace in the region and to ensure lasting security for the parties”, according to a explanatory note that accompanies these texts.
What is the reaction of Westerners?
This declaration on their independence is considered a “violation of sovereignty” denounced by Kiev and the Westerners who have announced sanctions. Westerners had however tried, in vain, to dissuade the Kremlin from taking this decision. Recognizing the independence of the separatist regions would be “a unilateral rupture” of the 2015 Minsk agreements intended to resolve the situation there, had warned German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Since then, many leaders who had tried to work for peace have protested once morest this decision, followed by the announcement of the deployment of troops. Vladimir Putin is in “a kind of ideological drift” and held a speech on Monday mixing “rigid and paranoid” considerations, thus estimated the Elysée. Vladimir Putin has “made a very clear choice to break his commitments” and “did not respect the word given” to Emmanuel Macron, said the French presidency, not excluding new Russian “military facts”.
The United States on Monday announced sanctions once morest the separatist regions as well as new sanctions once morest Russia. The head of British diplomacy, Liz Truss, for her part warned in the process that the “violation” by Russia of its international commitments would not go “unpunished”. She added that new sanctions targeting Russia would be announced as early as Tuesday.
What precedents for the Ukrainian crisis?
This is not Vladimir Putin’s first attempt. Moscow has promoted separatism in several ex-Soviet republics since the fall of the USSR. In 2008, the Kremlin thus recognized the independence of two pro-Russian separatist “republics” in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, following a lightning war once morest Tbilisi, a former Soviet republic which, like Ukraine, aims to join NATO.
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