Between Russia and the West, the situation on the Ukrainian question is still just as tense. But, beyond the resounding declarations – Jean-Yves Le Drian estimated on Monday that “all the elements” for a “strong (military) offensive” from Russia were met – the attempt at a diplomatic settlement continues.
This Tuesday, the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, went to Moscow to pursue the enterprise begun several weeks ago. Even before his meeting with Vladimir Putin, Russia announced the withdrawal of part of its troops. Diplomatic efforts to avoid a conflict are “far from exhausted”, commented the German leader.
Russia announces start of withdrawal
Sign of a beginning of de-escalation, the Russian Minister of Defense announced, as of Monday, the end of certain military maneuvers which are currently taking place on the Russian-Ukrainian borders and in Belarus. This Tuesday morning, the Russian government announced that part of the forces deployed near the border were indeed returning to their garrisons.
“Units from the Southern and Western Military Districts that have completed their tasks have already started loading onto rail and road transport and will begin returning to their garrisons today,” the doorman said. – ministry spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, quoted by Russian news agencies. Information confirmed a few hours later by the Kremlin. “We have always said that following the completion of the exercises, (…) the troops will return to their original garrisons. That’s what’s happening there, it’s the usual process,” Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
For its part, France is in the process of “having this information confirmed” and therefore remains “cautious”, commented Gabriel Attal this Tuesday noon, at the exit of the Council of Ministers. But if this beginning of withdrawal is proven, “it’s a positive signal, it would be a sign of de-escalation”. “Lyrics are good. We are waiting for the actions. If the acts are there, it will be even better, ”launched the head of French diplomacy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, to the National Assembly.
An opinion that is not entirely shared by Boris Johnson. The British Prime Minister judges that the information that arrived on Tuesday is “still not encouraging” concerning a de-escalation, in particular because of “tactical groups of battalions approaching the border”. This announcement must be “followed by facts, because we need confidence, we need security for all citizens here, at home in Europe” also nuanced the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock.
The hope of diplomacy
If the spokesman for the Pentagon, John Kirby, had estimated on Monday that a “military action might intervene at any time”, the hopes that the discussions succeed remain. “There remains a crucial opportunity for diplomacy”, for example underlined the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, and the American President, Joe Biden, who spoke by telephone on Monday. On Tuesday, British Foreign Minister Liz Truss said there was “time (…) for Vladimir Putin to get away from the precipice, but he only has a limited time left to do so”.
“There is always a chance”, also declared the head of Russian diplomacy Sergei Lavrov, answering a question from Vladimir Putin, according to images broadcast on television. “Our possibilities are far from being exhausted”, continued the Minister, even proposing to “prolong and broaden” the dialogue. Sergei Lavrov also spoke by telephone with Antony Blinken on Tuesday. At the same time, President Emmanuel Macron will meet with his American counterpart Joe Biden.
Ukraine’s optimism
Tuesday’s Russian announcements made Ukraine optimistic. “Together with our partners, we managed to prevent any further escalation from Russia,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kouleba said on Tuesday. If he recognized a situation that was still “tense”, the Minister of Foreign Affairs considered that it was however “under control”, while adding that it was premature to formalize the drop in tensions.
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“Russia makes all kinds of statements all the time, that’s why we have a rule: we will believe in a de-escalation when we see the withdrawal” of the troops, he added. This Tuesday at midday, the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, also expressed his “cautious optimism” while specifying that a sign of de-escalation was not yet visible on the ground.
Olaf Scholz a Moscow
The German Chancellor arrived in Moscow on Tuesday to meet Vladimir Putin. The aim of the ongoing diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis around Ukraine is “to reach a political understanding without anyone having to abandon their principles in the process”, he said during a press conference. For his part, the Russian head of state wanted to reassure. “Do we want (a war) or not? Of course not. This is why we have put forward our proposals for a negotiation process,” he assured journalists.
The day before, Olaf Scholz had traveled to Kiev to meet Volodymyr Zelensky. Like Emmanuel Macron before him, he refused to submit to a Russian anti-Covid test on his arrival for his talks with Vladimir Putin, opting for a sample supervised by Berlin.
Germany, which was being reproached by Westerners for being too soft with Russia for economic reasons, is beginning to harden its tone. Even before Olaf Scholz’s meeting with Vladimir Putin, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock urged Russia to “withdraw its troops” from the border. “The situation is particularly dangerous and might degenerate at any time” and “we must use all opportunities for dialogue to reach a peaceful solution”, she continued in a statement, adding: “the responsibility for de-escalation is clearly on the side of Russia”.
Worrying request from the Russian Parliament
In parallel with the announcement of the withdrawal of certain Russian troops as well as diplomatic discussions, Russian deputies made a request on Tuesday that goes once morest the country’s process. The Duma voted in plenary session on a text calling on Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of the pro-Russian separatist territories in eastern Ukraine.
If this request were accepted, it would mark the end of the peace process, marked by the Minsk agreements, signed under Franco-German mediation, providing for the eventual return of these territories to the control of Kiev.
According to a source at the Élysée, Vladimir Poutine assured Emmanuel Macron that he did not approve of this parliamentary initiative. But France remains vigilant on the issue all the same. The EU for its part “strongly” condemned the Duma’s move.
Soon help from Europe
The European Union might also bring new financial aid to Ukraine. This Tuesday morning, MEPs agreed on Tuesday to vote urgently on new financial support in the amount of 1.2 billion euros, in the form of a 12-month loan allocated in two tranches. A second vote, to ratify this proposal, must still take place during the plenary session which takes place in Strasbourg until Thursday, said a spokesperson for the European Parliament.
According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the EU and its financial institutions have already mobilized “€17 billion in grants and loans” for Ukraine since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 .
