By blowing hot and cold, Russia leaves Western leaders wary. On Tuesday, the Duma, the Russian parliament is studying a bill calling for recognition of the independence of separatist territories in Ukraine. The same day, the Russian executive evokes a beginning of withdrawal of its thousands of soldiers, massed on the Ukrainian borders. Wednesday morning, the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell did not hide his perplexity at this new announcement. It would be, “if it were true, no doubt” a sign of relaxation, he commented very cautiously on France Inter.
In the evening, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed that there was currently “little evidence” of a withdrawal of Russian troops to the Ukrainian border, during a call with the Secretary General of the Antonio Guterres.
The two leaders agreed that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would have “catastrophic” consequences. The aim now is to “avoid a disastrous military escalation and humanitarian crisis”, a Downing Street spokesperson said in a statement.
In the midst of these games of observation and these reservations, Ukraine hopes for appeasement. The calendar of diplomatic meetings is expanding in an attempt to consolidate the beginnings of appeasement that have been taking shape since Tuesday. The foreign ministers of the G7 countries are expected in Munich on Saturday, said a spokesperson for the German government.
Russia announces the end of the maneuvers…
On Tuesday, the Russian ministry announced that part of the troops deployed on the Ukrainian borders were returning the same day to the garrison, broadcasting to this effect images of armored vehicles loaded on a train. Vladimir Putin confirmed this “partial withdrawal”.
However, Washington has “not seen a Russian withdrawal” and ensures that the threat remains “real”. The Secretary General of NATO does not see “at this stage” any sign of de-escalation despite the declarations of Moscow.
“On the contrary, it appears that Russia continues to reinforce its military presence (…) Russia can still invade Ukraine without notice, the capacities are in place” with more than 100,000 soldiers, affirmed Jens Stoltenberg. “We are ready to reunite with Russia, but we are preparing for the worst.”
On social networks, the images of witnesses showed dozens of tanks parked in the snow, a few tens of kilometers from the Ukrainian border, or even endless trains which, wagon following wagon, transported brand new armored vehicles. Further west, the army itself displayed its forces in Belarus in slickly directed videos: missile launchers starting in unison, soldiers in white camouflage and Kalashnikovs in hand, combat planes patrolling border… A show of force which, although it has been restrained for 48 hours, looks very much like an intimidation strategy.
Meanwhile, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to make Wednesday a “unity day”. Ukrainians are invited to display the colors of the national flag throughout the country. The date of this great demonstration of patriotism was not chosen at random: it stems from reports by American intelligence services suggesting that the Russian invasion of the country might take place on February 16. A way for the president to show that he is not panicking.
