Morocco, France, Algeria, Maghreb, Sahel, Visas,
Tensions between Paris and Rabat: The new Maghrebian calculations of the Élysée
France seems determined to review its vision and its approach to the treatment reserved for the Maghreb in general. The approach so maintained with Morocco to the detriment of the win/win relationship with Algeria, can no longer serve its strategic interests which are really threatened because of the geopolitical transformations which impact the world in general and Europe in particular.
A real crisis is looming between Paris and Rabat. There are many reasons behind this coldness in relations between the two countries. Official reason for the tensions, the issue of visas. France has drastically reduced the issuance of visas to Moroccans. A reduction in visas that Paris registers as part of the process of reducing visas for North Africans to force “more cooperation” with regard to immigration issues. A speech intended to respond to certain calculations of Macronie which flirts with the right-wing electorate.
However, other factors fuel unease with Morocco. Because if France has reduced by 50% the number of visas issued to North Africans, this rate drops to 70% for Moroccans. The visa issue has become a symptom of deep tensions between the Élysée and the Makhzen, France’s ally of choice in the Maghreb. Tensions which open, perhaps, the way to a reinterpretation of the Maghreb policy of the Elysée.
The analyzes evoke several reasons which might explain this cold. The Pegasus affair is the straw that broke the camel’s back. This scandalous affair caused a reaction, even if it had been covered up by the French authorities. The espionage of mandarins and French statesmen quickly provoked including the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron, who himself was a victim of espionage by Operation Pegasus. Since this case to the present day, things are not going well between the Moroccan Makhzen regime and Paris. The tone has changed on the French side.
Beyond that, this cold seems to be the result of new calculations by the Élysée in the light of the changes that are hitting Europe hard through what is unfolding as a conflict in Ukraine and its repercussions. The latest decisions concerning the limitation of obtaining visas for Moroccans by France are already the beginning of a tension between Rabat and Paris. These decisions are beginning to produce harmful effects in Morocco where a very large number of visa applicants have seen their applications stubbornly rejected. France seems determined to review its vision and its approach to the treatment reserved for the Maghreb in general. The approach so maintained with Morocco to the detriment of the win/win relationship with Algeria, can no longer serve its strategic interests which are really threatened because of the geopolitical transformations which impact the world in general and Europe in particular.
The gas and energy issue in general reminds France that only Algeria might supply Europe and France with gas. This new geopolitical deal has pushed the French establishment to thoroughly review its copy of its strategic relationship with Algeria. Strategic interests take precedence over all other conjunctural approaches. This is why France is seeking to position itself in a new approach to its relations with Algeria, which it is seeking to sell in anticipation of French President Emmanuel Macron’s next visit to Algeria. A visit where many files will have to be examined to ease the tensions between Algiers and Paris, in the lead that of the memory and the circulation of people who poison the relations between the two countries. A visit during which Macron will seek to outline some of his priorities, particularly in economic and energy terms, but also in Africa, in the Sahel particularly where France is losing ground. In this sense, Algeria, which is a key player in the region, is de facto the privileged partner to court.
A question then arises, what place remains for Morocco in the new geopolitical calculations of Paris? Although the Makhzen has always striven to serve external agendas in the region and has proclaimed itself a privileged partner of Europe with regard to issues related to immigration, the regime is wavering and multiplying blunders.
The Moroccan regime, which is facing one of the most serious political, economic and social crises in its history, is threatened with isolation and implosion from within because of the demonstrations and the popular mobilization which does not weaken to demand the departure pure and simple of the Makhzen regime which is responsible for this Kafkaesque situation in which the majority of the Moroccan people are entangled.
Rachid Nassouti
The Sentinel, 08/15/2022
#France #Morocco #Algeria #Maghreb #Sahel #Pegasus #Visas
