As the United States appears to be heading for a feared new winter wave of COVID-19 infections, the World Health Organization is looking further afield and finding hope for an end to the global health emergency.
At a Wednesday press conference in Geneva, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said discussion of the criteria for declaring the end of the pandemic would begin in January, when the emergency committee of the agency will meet.
“We hope that at some point next year we can say that COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency,” Tedros said.
But, he added many caveats. “Of course, this virus will not go away. It is here to stay, and all countries will need to learn how to manage it alongside other respiratory illnesses, including influenza and RSV, which are now circulating intensely in many countries.”
He also noted looming challenges, such as the health burden of post-COVID and long-lasting conditions, which are poorly understood and addressed but increasing. On Wednesday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released an analysis concluding that long COVID has started showing up on death certificates this year. The condition has been listed as the cause of death for 3,544 people, 0.3% of deaths from COVID-19. Experts say the number is likely an undercount and deaths and disabilities from post-COVID conditions will increase in coming years.
Challenges near and far
Vaccine inequality remains a critical issue. Only 1 in 5 people in low-income countries have been vaccinated, Tedros noted. And there remain significant weaknesses and gaps in the surveillance of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, leaving the world vulnerable to being blindsided by another surge in omicron-like variants.
Still, there are reasons for hope. At this point last year, omicron began its rampage and killed 50,000 people every week. Last week, less than 10,000 people died of COVID-19 worldwide.
“It’s still 10,000 too many,” Tedros said, “and there’s still a lot that all countries can do to save lives. But we have come a long way.”
Optimism may be dulled in the United States (and elsewhere), however, as experts warn that transmission of COVID-19 is on the rise as the country heads into the holiday season. This increase is also accompanied by unusual surges of other respiratory illnesses, namely RSV and influenza, which are already overwhelming hospitals across the country and hitting children especially hard.
According to data tracking by The New York Times, reported COVID-19 cases have increased by 55% in the past two weeks and hospitalizations, which usually delay the increase in cases, have increased by 22%. Meanwhile, Americans have largely avoided the updated COVID-19 boosters, which kickstart protection and target the newer BA.5 and BA.4 omicron subvariants. According to CDC data, only 13.5% of eligible Americans rolled up their sleeves for the updated bivalent booster, including only 34% of those ages 65 and older, who are at greater risk for severe disease.
