How much does the Omicron variant weigh today in contaminations in Brittany?
It represented just over 83% of covid-19 contaminations detected in the region during the week of December 28 to January 3. As this proportion is constantly increasing, we should approach 90% in the next few days, if we are not already there. This calculation is made from screening of positive PCR tests (where we look for specific mutations of the variants, NDLR). 16% of these tests were thus screened during the week of December 28 to January 3 in Brittany.
The North-West of France as well as the Paris region are the sectors where the proportion of Omicron is the highest, unlike the Paca region. Do you have an explanation ?
Omicron may find it more difficult to find its place where the Delta epidemic has been strong, where vaccination coverage is lower, in particular in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur. Indeed, if a person is already affected by Delta, they cannot, in addition, be ill with Omicron. This variant is spreading from the North-West to the South-East, and is in the process of supplanting Delta everywhere. In all regions, except Paca and Corsica, it was over 70% on January 3.
Is it exaggerating to think that it is good news for Brittany to be more affected by Omicron, a variant suspected of being less severe?
It is still a hypothesis under discussion. Omicron only arrived at the end of November in Europe and we only have six weeks of hindsight on its dynamics, its scope and its hospital impact. Indeed, it seems to generate less serious illness, but it first affected young populations and, later, older populations, a priori more sensitive. It seems necessary to wait a fortnight before having an answer. And even if it turns out to be less serious, it remains much more contagious. If it affects a very large population, the mass effect may prevail.
Is the Delta wave coming to an end in Brittany?
Admittedly, it only represents 15% of the contaminations detected, but that is equivalent to 1,200 people every day in the region. This is a high level, equivalent to the one we had before Omicron arrived. Delta therefore remains problematic.
What is the level of circulation of the virus in the Breton departments at present?
We no longer communicate temporarily on departmental data. Following an algorithm problem, indicators seemed very overvalued in certain departments, but Brittany would be less concerned. What we can say is that the region remains one of the least affected by the epidemic, even if the increase in contamination is strong. The incidence rate is around 1,500 positive tests per 100,000 inhabitants over a week, Ille-et-Vilaine is a little ahead, Côtes-d’Armor and Finistère follow behind.
Are we seeing a shift in contamination from young people to older people, following the end of the year celebrations?
We have seen an explosion in the incidence among people over 65 from last week, even if it is now somewhat stabilized. However, the situation can change quickly. On the other hand, we observe, among those under 50, a contaminations curve that continues to increase.
Why do contaminations seem to stabilize among the oldest Bretons?
Different hypotheses may explain this: the elderly were the first to be targeted by the booster vaccination campaigns and have the highest coverage in terms of the third dose. They also have, perhaps, more “protective” behaviors vis-à-vis covid-19 towards themselves and others.
Do you think, as some scientists claim, that the peak of contamination might be reached in ten days, especially in Brittany?
Looking at the epidemic durations in other countries, Omicron seems to generate a kind of very intense but short peak, unlike previous times, where the contamination curve rose more smoothly and remained at a high level for longer. However, we are not sure what will happen.
Why has Brittany reached such levels of contamination this time around, when it had been much more spared in the past?
All regions are affected. Brittany nevertheless has an incidence rate one third lower than the national average. However, this indicator has increased a lot, especially among young people where the wave was major and spread like wildfire throughout the territory.
What is the proportion of vaccinated and unvaccinated in hospitals in Brittany?
The figures are fluctuating because we are on small numbers. For the moment, we are on a risk of hospitalization a dozen times more important for unvaccinated versus fully vaccinated people. This ratio is even greater for critical care admissions. The gain obtained by vaccination is obvious for severe forms.
Can the situation deteriorate in Breton hospitals?
Everything will depend on the evolution of the epidemic in the most fragile people. What will the recent explosion in the incidence of people over 65, which has stabilized today? We are waiting: the previous times, a delay of 10-15 days was observed between the increase in cases and the impact on hospitalizations. We are already seeing a fairly significant increase in conventional hospitalizations in Brittany this week, but not in critical care. However, in the past, there was no temporal difference between the two. Whether we will see an increase in critical care hospitalizations is still difficult to say.
What must be done today to stop the epidemic? Vaccinate massively with a third dose, while letting the epidemic slip away to strengthen the natural immunity of the population?
Today, the booster dose has a major impact on hospitalizations. It is extremely important to have received it because it allows you to avoid serious forms. Letting Omicron run is taking a bet because no one can say they are safe from a serious form, even if they are less frequent. And whether a booster dose will be more or less effective than contamination by Omicron in the long term, no one can say.
