Countries with “ultra-low” birth rates detected

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The world’s population will grow by more than 2 billion people in the coming decades, peaking in the 2080s at regarding 10.3 billion people, according to a United Nations report released Monday.

The world’s population is then expected to decline to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century, according to the report released on World Population Day.

According to the World Population Prospects 2024 report, the earlier-than-expected peak in population is due to several factors, including declining fertility levels in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China, whose population is projected to decline sharply from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.

Globally, women are having one fewer child on average than in 1990, the report found, and in more than half of all countries and territories, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1.

This is the level necessary for a country’s population to maintain its size without having to resort to immigrants.

Fertility

According to the UN Population Division report, nearly 20% of the world’s countries, including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain, have “ultra-low” fertility, with less than 1.4 live births per woman.

“The earlier peak and trough is a hopeful sign,” said UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Li Junhua. “This would mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption.”

Environmental impact

Li stressed, however, that even with slower population growth, people will still need to individually reduce the impact of their activities to preserve the environment.

According to the report, by 2024, the population will have peaked in 63 countries and territories, including China, Germany, Japan and Russia.

In this group, the total population is expected to decrease by 14% over the next 30 years.

In 48 other countries and territories — including Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam — populations will peak between 2025 and 2054, the report said.

In the remaining 126 countries and territories, including the United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan, populations are projected to increase through 2054, “potentially peaking in the second half of the century or later.”

For nine of these countries – including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Somalia – the UN predicts very rapid growth, with their populations doubling between 2024 and 2054.

The world’s population has grown dramatically over the past 75 years, from regarding 2.6 billion in 1950 to 8 billion in November 2022.

Since then, it has increased by regarding 2.5% to $8.2 billion.

Kathleen Mogelgaard, president and CEO of the Population Institute, a nonprofit center that promotes sexual and reproductive health based in Washington, said that yesterday’s new estimates underscore “a growing demographic divide around the world.”

While the study identified more than 100 countries and territories whose populations have already peaked or will peak within the next 30 years, it noted, it shows even more where populations will continue to grow, many of them among the world’s poorest nations.