“Counteroffensive Strategies in Ukraine: Experts Predict Three Scenarios, but Western Support is Key”

2023-05-07 21:00:00

Three Counteroffensive Scenarios Experts Expect, But Winning Requires More Western Support

Ukrainian President Zelensky (Photo: AP/Aflo)

(International journalist, Masato Kimura)

Witnessed an interceptor missile aimed at a drone from the hotel window

[From Kryvy Rif, Central Ukraine]I revisited Kryvy Rych, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which is more than 400 km away from Kyiv. It is the birthplace of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.


On the morning of the 6th, an explosion was heard. Soon, the air raid warning app on my smartphone went into action. When I looked outside from the window on the 4th floor of the hotel, I saw a contrail that looked like it had been launched from the ground and a mass of smoke that looked like something had exploded in the air.

Shortly following that, I saw an anti-aircraft missile being launched. Another contrail stretches in the deep blue sky. I mightn’t tell from the window how far it had flown. “Born” is the sound of an explosion intercepting an unmanned aerial vehicle (drones) that was heard late at night in Kyiv.

It turns out that the plume of smoke seen near Kyiv Passenger Station on the evening of the 4th, which was introduced in the previous report, shot down an out-of-control Ukrainian drone, not the Russian military. However, Russian military drones continue to fly around Ukraine.


Two contrails left by interceptor missiles (taken by the author at Krivie Rif on the morning of May 6)

When I visited Kyiv and Krivi Rif last June, I didn’t experience air raids or interceptions up close even though air raid sirens sounded. The Russian BM-30 Smerch multiple rocket launcher has a maximum range of 70 kilometers. Expensive long-range missiles are in limited supply, so staying more than 70 kilometers from the front line was safe, but inexpensive drones increased the attack range significantly.


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