Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 12. China Securities Journal published an article on the 12th, “Corporate Credit Demand Improves, Financial Data Exceeds Expectations in March”. The article said that on April 11, the March financial data released by the People’s Bank of China exceeded the expectations of many institutions. Experts said that the financial data in March reflected new progress in easing credit. In the next stage, it is necessary to play the role of monetary policy tools to help the economy operate within a reasonable range.
New credit exceeded 3 trillion yuan in March
(Photo description) File photo, issued by Xinhua News Agency
Data show that in the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 8.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 663.6 billion yuan. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 395.1 billion yuan.
“Due to the ‘end of the quarter’ phenomenon, the scale of credit issuance in March will generally be relatively high.” Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, said in an interview with a reporter from China Securities Journal that although the new credit exceeded market expectations , but the improvement at the structural level is not obvious enough. In the case of increasing downward pressure on the economy, the risk appetite of banks is generally relatively low, and they are more inclined to support key infrastructure projects.
From the perspective of resident loans, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that in March, both short-term and medium-to-long-term resident loans increased seasonally from the previous month, but the increase was still low year-on-year.
In March, the loan issuance of enterprises (institutions) showed signs of recovery. Zhou Maohua, an analyst at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that the year-on-year increase in medium and long-term loans in March reflects the improvement in corporate credit demand; the increase in short-term loans reflects the increase in short-term transaction activity of companies, which has correspondingly increased short-term liquidity needs.
New social financing rebounded more than expected
Data show that in the first quarter, the increase in social financing scale was 12.06 trillion yuan, 1.77 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; in March, the increase in social financing was 4.65 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of March, the stock of social financing was 325.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%.
In the opinion of experts, the increase in the scale of social financing in March exceeding market expectations is a highlight of the financial data in March. “From a structural point of view, on-balance sheet credit, off-balance sheet financing, and government bond financing are the main factors driving the increase in the scale of social financing in March,” said Wen Bin, chief researcher at Minsheng Bank.
Lian Ping believes that the most obvious increase in the scale of social financing in March is government bond financing, especially the local government special bond financing has increased significantly compared with the previous stage, reflecting the force of the policy of stabilizing growth. Corporate bond financing data is also remarkable. The rapid growth in government bond and corporate bond financing is expected to continue.
At the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 249.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 64.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and the growth rate was the same as that at the end of last month.
In Zhou Maohua’s view, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in March exceeded expectations mainly due to the recovery of financing demand in the real economy, the enhancement of deposit derivation capacity and the increase in fiscal expenditure. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 was higher than expected, mainly driven by the increase in corporate demand deposits, and also related to the gradual stabilization and recovery of the real estate market.
“The current year-on-year growth rate of M2 has been slightly higher than that of nominal GDP, which is a normal phenomenon in the period of counter-cyclical control of monetary policy, and there is still a slight upward space in the future.” Wang Qing said.
Monetary policy still needs to work hard
Although the financial data in March exceeded market expectations, experts said that the characteristics of strong aggregate volume and weak structure are still relatively obvious, and the follow-up monetary policy adjustment needs to be further strengthened.
“At present, the external situation is more complex and changeable, and the task of stabilizing growth is arduous.” Wen Bin said that from the price data in March, my country’s prices are moderate and controllable, and the constraints on monetary policy are limited. In the follow-up, we should adhere to the policy tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, insist on focusing on ourselves, take into account both internal and external, give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of total volume and structure, and make good use of re-loans to support agriculture, small and medium-sized enterprises, scientific and technological innovation, and special redevelopment of inclusive old-age care. Loans and other tools, increase rescue efforts for market players, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.
Zhou Maohua believes that the March financial data will help ease the market’s concerns regarding the economic outlook. The follow-up prudent monetary policy should remain flexible and appropriate, and comprehensively use RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, and structural tools to guide financial institutions to continue to reasonably profit from the real economy and optimize the credit structure while ensuring a reasonable and appropriate money supply.
“According to the requirement of stabilizing growth ‘policy measures should be put forward and strengthened in a timely manner’, the probability of reducing RRR and interest rates in the second quarter is increasing. Among them, RRR cuts can effectively improve banks’ lending capacity, and interest rate cuts will help stimulate real economy financing. Demand. It is expected that the comprehensive RRR cut and policy interest rate cut will be implemented in April as soon as possible, which will guide the follow-up financial data to continue the momentum of overall recovery, and the credit and social financing structure will gradually improve.” Wang Qing said. (Finish)Return to Sohu, see more
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