According to the forecast, the 7-day incidence should drop from currently around 1,260 to 740 by Wednesday next week – with a possible fluctuation range of 590 to 980. According to an estimate, this corresponds to around 9,500 new infections per day – with a fluctuation range of 7,622 to 12,547.
Although the development of new infections is still declining in all age groups, the peak in the older population groups occurred with a delay of around two weeks compared to the rest of the population.
Slower decline in hospital numbers
This is also a reason for the slower decline in hospital occupancy rates. On Wednesday, 226 CoV patients were reported in intensive care units and 2,873 in normal wards. For next week, the estimates are 161 to 209 CoV patients with a point estimate of 183. In the normal wards, there are 1,856 to 2,388 non-life-threatening CoV cases need for inpatient care. The point estimator is 2,106.
In two weeks after Easter, on Wednesday, April 20, according to the forecast, there should be 109 to 165 in intensive care patients, with a point estimate of 134, and 1,124 to 1,794 in normal wards. The point estimate here is 1,420.
Wednesday with the fewest new infections since mid-January
It was also noted that the decline in testing did not result in a major increase in the positivity rate in any federal state, so it can be ruled out that the reduction in testing is the cause of the current decline in reported cases. The lowest incidence is expected in Tyrol (360-590) and the highest incidence in Vienna (770-1,300). All forecasts were made on the basis of the data as of April 5th.
The 21,076 new infections in Austria reported by the responsible ministries on Wednesday mean the fewest for this weekday since January 12 (17,006). However, the number of tests has also fallen significantly: in the past 24 hours there were 361,092 rapid PCR and antigen tests, compared to 810,313 a week ago.
EMA: Fourth CoV vaccination currently not necessary
The EU Medicines Agency (EMA) currently does not consider a fourth CoV vaccination to be necessary for everyone. It is currently too early for a general recommendation, the EMA announced on Wednesday in Amsterdam together with the EU health authority (ECDC). However, a fourth dose could make sense for people aged 80 and over in view of the higher risk of severe CoV disease in this age group.
“For adults 60 years and older with a normal immune system, there is currently no conclusive evidence that vaccination protection against serious disease decreases and that a fourth dose has any added value,” the authorities said. But there are also no safety concerns about a second booster vaccination.