2024-08-30 06:30:44
Last June, 5,000 experts from 200 countries met in Bonn (Germany) to prepare for COP29, which will be held in Baku (Azerbaijan) from 11 to 22 November 2024. The aim: to begin negotiations with a view to reaching an agreement on the issue of financing climate policies. While initial expectations were high, progress has unfortunately not been up to par and much remains to be done to ensure that the next COP is a success.
Following the historic COP28 agreement, which for the first time mentioned a target to phase out all fossil fuels and recognised nuclear power as a source of energy necessary to achieve carbon neutrality, the major theme this year will therefore be the financing of climate action.
During the opening speech At the Bonn negotiations, Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, stressed the need to “make decisive progress on financing, the great facilitator of climate action.” Because it can never be said enough: money is the sinews of war and the climate battle is no exception to the rule.
However, when it comes to financing climate action, much remains to be done, as Mr Stiell reminded us when he urged “moving from a zero project to concrete options for a new collective quantified objective for financing climate action.”
Towards more ambitious climate goals
Two acronyms related to climate action were at the heart of the negotiations in Bonn. On the financial side, the establishment of a new collective quantified objective (NCQG) should allow developing countries to finance their climate action by going beyond the 100 billion dollars currently mobilized each year. However, this amount is very insufficient, since it would have to be multiplied by 10 or 20 to produce tangible results.[1].
And on this point, no agreement has been reached. For the moment, the only certainty is therefore the starting floor of the negotiations of 100 billion dollars. In order to avoid a failure of COP29, the parties have nevertheless been invited to a “next round” of negotiations, a ministerial dialogue high-level meeting to be held in October, just before the COP.
The other point is about NDCs, so climate action itself. Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, are national climate commitments that were defined as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the NDCs are of capital importance since they “ represent politically supported plans to invest in key areas that have the potential not only to meet climate goals, but also to drive sustainable development.”
The Paris Agreement, however, stipulates that adaptation and mitigation measures must be updated every 5 years and that each update must be more ambitious. However, according to the UNDP, vulnerable and developing countries are doing more than the global average in terms of NDCs. The first global assessment which was presented at COP28 demonstrated this. But the discussions in Bonn on the strengthening of the NDCs, planned for 2025 (NDC 3.0), unfortunately lacked ambition.
Financing climate action: a headache announced for the next COP29
After 10 days of negotiations in Bonn, the results are therefore mixed. While progress has been made towards establishing a new collective quantified target for financing climate action, the most delicate part remains to be accomplished at the next COP. The status quo in terms of financing is therefore still current, a situation that the Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change regrets.
The closing speech Mr. Stiell’s tone was almost pleading, so high are the stakes: “I urge you: do not leave the hardest work until the last moment. Maintaining the status quo will only lead to failure, on climate finance, and on many other fronts, in humanity’s fight against climate change (…) we still have a very steep mountain to climb to achieve ambitious results in Baku.”
[1] A recent study puts the figure at 2,400 billion per year. !
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