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- Reporter, Jeremy Howell
- Reporter, BBC World Service
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2 hours ago
The 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) is scheduled to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, starting on the 11th (local time). Climate experts from dozens of countries will gather to discuss new ways to reduce carbon emissions.
The hope is that this will limit future temperature rises and help the world avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
However, after becoming the next president, Donald Trump is expected to withdraw the United States from international climate change agreements, as he did during his first administration. And if this happens, America’s emissions could increase dramatically.
What are the global climate change targets?
Delegates from about 200 countries gathered at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) held in Paris, France in 2015, and pledged to make efforts to prevent the rise in global average temperature by more than 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period.
The idea was to prevent serious damage caused by climate change, such as poor harvests and floods caused by melting ice caps, through these efforts.
The UN says that in order to maintain the ‘1.5℃ target’, countries must step up and stop emitting carbon dioxide and methane. This is because these substances are ‘greenhouse gases’ that trap heat in the atmosphere.
Accordingly, the goal was to reduce emissions by half by 2030 and achieve ‘net zero’ by no longer emitting greenhouse gases by 2050.
And most countries have already set or are considering such net zero goals.
To achieve this goal, efforts are needed to replace fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal with renewable energy such as solar power and wind power, and to replace gasoline engine vehicles with electric vehicles.
However, the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is still increasing rapidly, and as a result, scientists from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say that it is highly likely that the temperature rise will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius and the Earth will become warmer.
At COP29 in Baku, the international community will discuss further joint action needed to achieve the goals set in the Paris Climate Agreement.
What are the U.S. measures to respond to climate change?
Photo caption: In recent years, the United States has been investing heavily in green energy.
Addressing climate change has been one of the main goals of outgoing US President Joe Biden.
In 2022, President Biden signed the ‘Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)’. This law, which contains hundreds of billions of dollars in tax benefits, subsidies, and loan support to revitalize clean energy-related manufacturing in the United States, created 300,000 jobs in this field.
Additionally, the Biden administration argued that carbon dioxide emissions from all thermal power plants should achieve net zero by 2040, and that the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles should be banned after 2035.
In addition, we have set a goal to supply 55% of electricity by 2025, 75% by 2030, and 100% by 2035.
How Trump’s return to power could change climate policy
Meanwhile, President-elect Trump describes climate change as ‘untrue’, ‘non-existent’, and an ‘expensive fraud’. (However, it was once described as a ‘serious topic’)
After taking office as president in 2017, he chose to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, which requires limiting greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the United States was only able to formally withdraw from the agreement in 2020, several months before he left office, and his successor, President Biden, chose to rejoin immediately after taking office.
And Trump, who will enter the White House again in January next year, is predicted to once again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement. This time, the United States may quickly withdraw from the agreement within a year.
And this will act as an obstacle for the United States at the COP general meeting held in Baku. Current President Biden will dispatch a negotiating team, but what they agree on cannot constitute a Trump administration.
Professor Richard Klein, a climate change policy expert at the Stockholm Environmental Research Institute, pointed out that this US attitude reduces the pressure on other large industrial countries, such as China, to reduce emissions.
“America cannot promise anything. Accordingly, countries such as China will not want to promise anything.”
At the same time, Professor Klein predicted that if the United States were to withdraw from the COP General Assembly, the pressure that China faces to provide funds to developing countries so that they can take their own climate change response measures will decrease.
Photo captionTrump shouts oil drilling slogan “Drill, baby, drill” at energy companies
Meanwhile, Trump is expected to encourage domestic oil, natural gas and coal extraction once he takes office, under his oil drilling slogan “Drill, Baby, Drill.”
“Offshore lease sales will increase and pipelines will move much faster,” Dan Eberhart, CEO of Canary LLC, an oil production services company, told Bloomberg News. “Also, hydraulic fracturing (fracking) will occur on federal lands as well.” He added, “A mindset that focuses on reducing energy costs borne by consumers will be implemented, including through drilling.”
Additionally, the Trump administration may block the construction of offshore wind farms. In fact, shares of wind turbine manufacturers are experiencing a decline due to concerns that several projects could be cancelled.
According to a report by ‘Carbon Brief’, a British-based think tank, the amount of greenhouse gases emitted during the four years when Trump takes office again could be at least 4 billion tons more than the amount of greenhouse gases emitted during the four years under Biden so far. did it
Dr. Simon Evans, who wrote the report, pointed out, “The second Trump administration will successfully destroy Biden’s climate legacy, which will crush the world’s hopes of achieving ‘maintaining below 1.5℃’.”
Will America’s green energy push come to a halt on a large scale?
Photo captionMore than half of the energy California currently consumes comes from renewable energy sources, such as wind power.
However, despite Trump’s attitude toward climate change, many experts believe that America’s transition to green energy will continue.
First of all, many Republican lawmakers also like the IRA. Spending on eco-friendly energy such as solar and wind power through IRA is expected to reach $3 trillion (approximately 4,100 trillion won), and so far, 85% of the spending has gone to regions that voted Republican.
Additionally, the renewable energy industry has now become big business globally.
The International Energy Agency, a Paris-based think tank, estimated that global spending on wind, solar energy, and batteries will reach about $2 trillion this year alone. This is twice the amount of investment in the oil, natural gas, and coal industries expected during the same period.
The U.S. administration will also want these investments to be directed as much as possible to the country rather than to competitors such as China.
Additionally, the proportion of renewable energy in the U.S. power grid is now at a negligible level. For example, it is known that California currently obtains 54% of its electricity from renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. In the United States as a whole, renewable energy accounts for 40% of electricity, so it will be difficult for Trump to simply ignore this if he wants to maintain his country’s power grid.
Commentary on Climate Change and COP29: Serious Business with a Dash of Wit!
Ah, COP29! The 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or as I like to call it, “COP, Please Don’t Let Us Burn.” It’s happening in the glamorous city of Baku, Azerbaijan! Who knew climate change discussions would be so posh? I always pictured them happening in a basement with lots of overturned pizza boxes and empty energy drink cans—but hey, it’s the United Nations, and they’ve got a reputation to uphold!
The High Stakes of Climate Change
Experts from countries worldwide are gathering, hoping to hammer out plans to reduce carbon emissions. The goal? To avoid the world cooking itself alive, which, let’s be honest, is a bit of a stretch given current trends. Honestly, the way we’re going, I expect the next summer holiday pamphlets will include a warning about sunburns at 20 feet…
There’s that quaint little target set at COP21 in Paris: keep the temperature rise to “just” 1.5°C. Sounds reasonable! But as of now, with the current trajectory, it’s looking less like a gentle summer evening and more like a full-blown heatwave in the Sahara. If we were at a party, this would be the point where someone tips over the punch bowl of renewable energy and everyone just starts dancing anyway!
America on the Climate Stage
Now, let’s turn our attention to the United States. The outgoing President, Joe Biden, made quite the splash with the Inflation Reduction Act and a promise to pivot towards green energy. But here comes Trump—remember him? He’s like that pesky fly that just won’t leave your BBQ. He’s already making noises about leaving international agreements again, like it’s a bad breakup and he’s now just going to ghost the world.
And the implications of Trump’s return? Professor Richard Klein theorizes that if America pulls back, it’s a free pass for China and others to kick back, relax, and emit however they please. It’s like giving your kid a sweet deal: “Hey, you can stay up late if I don’t have to set a curfew!” But who knows? Maybe the world’s big players are like toddlers in a candy store—sometimes they share, but most times, they just want to hoard.
The Bitter Irony
And isn’t it just rich that the U.S. could emit an extra 4 billion tons of greenhouse gases during Trump’s new term? Makes you wonder if we should just bring marshmallows to the next climate summit… That way, if the discussions heat up, at least we can toast some ‘eco-friendly’ treats.
The Glimmer of Hope
But let’s be real here: even if Trump storms back in wielding his “Drill, Baby, Drill!” banners, the renewable energy train seems to be gathering speed. Republicans and even some traditional old-timey oil types have started warming up to clean energy investments. Maybe they figured out that an electric vehicle can be as much a status symbol as a gas-guzzling pickup truck—with less of the guilt!
California, bless its eco-friendly heart, already hints at what’s possible with over half of its electricity coming from renewable sources. If they can do it, then surely the rest of the U.S. can slowly follow suit, even if it’s while draped in a flag that says, “Trump, but make it clean.”
Final Thoughts
As COP29 unfolds, let’s not forget: effective action against climate change is essential, and sadly, it won’t involve winky emojis or hashtags. The stakes are incredibly high. So, whether you believe climate change is real or a hoax worthy of a Netflix special, the undeniable truth is that we can’t keep living like there’s no tomorrow. Because if we do, let’s just say, the only thing rising will be the temperature, and we’re all going to be sweating—figuratively and literally.
So here’s hoping that delegates in Baku find some common ground and remember that, unlike politicians, the planet doesn’t have a Plan B. And maybe keep the punch bowl filled with renewable energy while you’re at it. Cheers!
Article related information
- Reporter, Jeremy Howell
- Reporter, BBC World Service
-
2 hours ago
The upcoming 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is set to commence in Baku, Azerbaijan on the 11th of this month, where climate experts from a diverse array of countries will convene to explore innovative strategies aimed at significantly reducing carbon emissions.
The collective aspiration of this gathering is to mitigate future temperature increases and ultimately safeguard the planet from the most severe repercussions of climate change.
However, with Donald Trump poised to return to the presidency, there are mounting concerns that he will once again withdraw the United States from international climate accords, mimicking his actions during his earlier term, potentially leading to a substantial rise in America’s emissions.
What are the global climate change targets?
At the pivotal 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) held in Paris, France in 2015, representatives from approximately 200 nations committed to striving to limit the increase in global average temperature to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
This commitment was aimed at preventing devastating effects of climate change, including severe droughts, poor agricultural yields, and flooding exacerbated by melting ice caps.
To adhere to the crucial ‘1.5℃ target,’ nations are urged to take decisive action to curtail emissions of carbon dioxide and methane, both of which are classified as ‘greenhouse gases’ that contribute to the greenhouse effect by trapping heat in the atmosphere.
To achieve this ambitious goal, there is a call to halve emissions by 2030 and strive for ‘net zero’ emissions by mid-century, meaning no net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050.
Most countries around the globe have either implemented or are contemplating such net-zero ambitions.
To make significant strides toward this objective, a substantial shift from fossil fuels like oil, natural gas, and coal towards renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power is essential, alongside transitioning gasoline-powered vehicles to electric alternatives.
Nevertheless, greenhouse gas concentrations continue to swiftly escalate in the atmosphere, prompting scientists from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to conclude that it is highly probable that global temperatures will surpass the crucial threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, resulting in a warmer planet.
During COP29 in Baku, delegates from around the world are expected to deliberate on the additional collective measures required to fulfill the ambitious targets set forth in the Paris Climate Agreement.
What are the U.S. measures to respond to climate change?
Climate change has been a paramount agenda item for outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, who has implemented several transformative initiatives to counter its effects.
In 2022, President Biden enacted the ‘Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)’, a sweeping legislation that allocates hundreds of billions of dollars in tax relief, subsidies, and loan provisions aimed at rejuvenating clean energy sectors within the United States, resulting in approximately 300,000 new jobs in this industry.
Moreover, the Biden administration put forth a recommendation that all thermal power plants achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2040, along with a proposed ban on the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles post-2035.
Additionally, the administration has set ambitious targets for renewable energy supply, aiming for 55% by 2025, 75% by 2030, and an ambitious goal of 100% by 2035.
How Trump’s return to power could change climate policy
In stark contrast, President-elect Donald Trump has cast doubt on climate change, asserting it to be ‘untrue’ and ‘non-existent,’ previously labeling it a ‘serious topic’ but now dismissing it as an ‘expensive fraud’.
Upon assuming the presidency in 2017, Trump opted to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement, which mandates limits on greenhouse gas emissions.
The official withdrawal from the agreement occurred in 2020, mere months before he vacated the presidency, while his successor, President Biden, prioritized rejoining the pact upon taking office.
With Trump’s anticipated return to the White House in January next year, it is widely expected that he will once again initiate a withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, potentially leading to a swift exit within a year.
Such a withdrawal would present considerable challenges for the United States at COP29 in Baku, where President Biden’s negotiating team may secure agreements, but these may lack the backing of a future Trump administration.
Richard Klein, a climate policy expert at the Stockholm Environmental Research Institute, emphasized that the U.S. stance diminishes the pressure on other major industrial nations, including China, to reduce their emissions.
“Without U.S. commitments, other nations such as China could be less inclined to make promises of their own,” Klein remarked.
Furthermore, Klein anticipates that a U.S. exit from COP29 would alleviate the pressure on China to provide financial resources to developing nations for implementing their climate response strategies.
Trump is also likely to advocate for an increase in domestic production of oil, natural gas, and coal, reinforcing his campaign mantra “Drill, Baby, Drill.”
Dan Eberhart, CEO of Canary LLC, an oil production services company, conveyed that “offshore lease sales will surge and pipeline projects will accelerate,” indicating a forthcoming era of increased resource extraction.
Additionally, the Trump administration may obstruct the development of offshore wind farms, leading to a downturn in shares of wind turbine manufacturers amid fears of project cancellations.
Research by ‘Carbon Brief’, a British think tank, projects that greenhouse gas emissions during a potential second Trump term could surpass 4 billion tons compared to the emissions recorded during Biden’s administration thus far.
Dr. Simon Evans, the report’s author, asserted, “Trump’s second term could fundamentally undermine Biden’s climate legacy, jeopardizing global aspirations to limit warming below 1.5℃.”
Will America’s green energy push come to a halt on a large scale?
Despite Trump’s skeptical view towards climate initiatives, many experts maintain that the transition to green energy in the United States is likely to endure.
A considerable faction of Republican lawmakers is supportive of the IRA, which is projected to funnel $3 trillion into eco-conscious energy ventures such as solar and wind projects, with 85% of the investments targeting Republican-held regions.
The renewable energy sector has burgeoned into a lucrative global market, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a staggering $2 trillion in global investment dedicated to wind, solar energy, and battery technologies this year alone.
Conversely, this figure eclipses the projected investments in fossil fuel industries during the same time frame.
The U.S. administration is also keen on steering these investments towards domestic ventures rather than towards competitors like China.
Notably, the share of renewable energy in the U.S. power grid remains relatively modest. For instance, California currently derives 54% of its electricity from renewable sources, while nationwide statistics show that renewables contribute around 40% to the electricity mix, making it challenging for Trump to overlook this evolution in energy production.
Trump environmental policy
Y and lead to a significant increase in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.”
Trump’s anticipated return to the presidency poses serious risks to not only U.S. domestic climate policies but also global efforts to combat climate change. If he follows through on his previous stance of retreating from international climate agreements and ramping up fossil fuel production, it could diminish the collaborative momentum built during Biden’s administration and erode the commitments made by other nations as they adjust their own climate strategies in response to U.S. actions. The impending discussions at COP29 will likely center around these challenges and the need for collective accountability in addressing the climate crisis.