Today, our correspondents at COP29 report from Baku that the ongoing talks are significantly influenced by the political landscapes in the US and Germany. Meanwhile, Laura and our EU finance correspondent offer insights into the highly anticipated hearings involving European commissioners scheduled for today, which promise to be a critical moment for the future of EU leadership.
Green screen
As the UN COP29 climate summit commenced in Baku yesterday amidst a flurry of global attention, the focus settled squarely on the United States’ top climate diplomat. In an effort to reassure other nations of America’s dedication to a fruitful conference, he expressed confidence in the nation’s commitment, despite the recent election outcome that saw Donald Trump ascend to power, writes Attracta Mooney.
John Podesta, a senior advisor, described the election results as “bitterly disappointing” for advocates of climate action, yet he emphasized, “We are here to work.” Podesta’s comments encapsulate a persistent hope amidst a challenging political backdrop.
Contextualizing the summit, following Trump’s victory, it is expected that the European Union will be tasked with the lion’s share of responsibilities regarding climate initiatives, particularly in terms of climate finance. Meanwhile, host country Azerbaijan is actively engaged in negotiating gas deals alongside these critical climate discussions, suggesting a complex interplay of energy and environmental priorities, according to officials.
At the grand Baku Olympic Stadium, where logistical challenges arose as food supplies dwindled by the evening of the first day, German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan confronted inquiries about the ramifications of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government collapse on her ability to advocate effectively. Despite the uncertainties, she affirmed, “We have a full mandate here from our government and we stand by the commitments we have made around climate finance, around climate action, on climate laws.”
While Morgan acknowledged the potential scale of impact due to the US elections on global climate change initiatives, she asserted there would be no retreat in the European Union’s climate agenda. “It’s quite clear that the global climate crisis and the global race for clean industries will continue irrespective of elections. Germany and the European Union see the transition to a climate neutral economy as a cornerstone of our future competitiveness,” she stated, reinforcing Europe’s enduring commitment.
Countries are anticipated to establish a new climate finance target during this summit aimed at assisting poorer nations in their decarbonisation efforts and in alleviating the impacts of climate-related damage. Small island nations, various Arab countries, and a coalition of African nations have collectively called for a revised target of at least $1 trillion annually, overshadowing the previously pledged $100 billion by wealthier nations over a decade ago. However, wealthier countries contend that such a lofty figure is unfeasible and insist on increasing contributions from emerging economies, including China and Saudi Arabia. The next two weeks in the Azerbaijani capital promise to be fraught with tension and negotiation.
Chart du jour: The other gas
Methane has been responsible for an estimated 30 percent of the world’s warming since the onset of the industrial revolution. Alarmingly, emissions from the energy sector reached a new high during 2023, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive solutions in climate policy.
Hear me out
Today marks a pivotal moment for parties within the European Parliament as they prepare to determine the fate of the six most senior officials who will comprise the next European Commission, write Paola Tamma and Laura Dubois.
Context: Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are set to interrogate candidates including Raffaele Fitto from Italy, Estonia’s Kaja Kallas, and France’s Stéphane Séjourné, in addition to Henna Virkkunen from Finland, Spain’s Teresa Ribera, and Roxana Mînzatu from Romania. The stakes are extraordinarily high as last week, 19 out of the 27 commissioners successfully navigated their hearings; however, there exists a pervasive sentiment that political game-playing should not stall the initiation of the new commission. Nevertheless, party politics reign supreme within the parliamentary hemicycle.
To gain approval, nominees must secure the backing of two-thirds of the political blocs represented in their respective committee hearings. The decision to hold all hearings for executive vice presidents simultaneously has been characterized by one EU Parliament official as creating a “mutual destruction clause” that binds the fate of all major candidates.
In a strategic move, MEPs postponed a decision regarding Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi until tomorrow to enhance their negotiating power against Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán and his influential Patriots for Europe party, the third-largest faction in the parliament. Fitto, representing the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists group, is likely to benefit from the support of the European People’s Party, which is the largest contingent in the parliament.
However, the Social Democrats (S&D), alongside their alliances with the Greens, the liberal Renew group, and the Left, are advocating for a demotion of Fitto’s potential position to that of a non-executive vice-president. Observers suggest that this proposal might face considerable resistance, as voting against Fitto could ultimately jeopardize the approval chances for Ribera of the S&D party if the EPP and ECR opt for retaliation. Lawmakers from the EPP are also keen on interrogating Ribera regarding her leadership as climate minister during the period of catastrophic floods that struck Spain recently.
“They have a loaded gun on the table against Ribera,” expressed another official familiar with the parliamentary proceedings. Similarly, the Renew group harbors concerns about risking the prospects of their own candidates, Kallas and Séjourné.
One likely scenario is that the votes will occur after all candidates undergo their hearings, governed by an implicit “don’t shoot” agreement among varying political factions.
What to watch today
-
World leaders actively participate in COP29 discussions in Baku, Azerbaijan.
-
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte holds talks with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.
Now read these
-
Invest to survive: The price of climate change inaction is steadily rising, as emphasized by ECB chief Christine Lagarde, who advocates for an urgent increase in green finance initiatives.
-
Desperate pitch: Ukraine is honing its “victory plan” to ensure it is appealing to US President-elect Donald Trump.
-
‘Surreal’ scenes: Despite the recent collapse of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, he enjoys unprecedented popularity within his political party.
Recommended newsletters for you
**Interview with Laura, EU Finance Correspondent at COP29**
**Host:** Welcome, Laura! We appreciate you joining us today from Baku. Let’s dive right in—what’s the current mood surrounding the ongoing talks at COP29, especially in light of the recent political shifts in the US?
**Laura:** Thank you for having me! There’s a palpable tension here. The election outcome in the US, with Donald Trump back in power, has raised concerns among delegates regarding America’s commitment to climate action. However, John Podesta has made it clear that despite disappointment, the US is here to engage constructively.
**Host:** That’s an interesting perspective. What do you think the implications are for the European Union as the summit progresses?
**Laura:** The EU is expected to shoulder a significant responsibility in climate finance moving forward. Germany’s situation is also crucial. Jennifer Morgan, the German climate envoy, emphasized that the government stands firm on its commitments. This indicates that even though there are uncertainties, Europe is committed to advancing its climate agenda regardless of external political pressures.
**Host:** You mentioned climate finance, a highly debated topic here. What are some of the proposals being discussed, particularly for assisting poorer nations?
**Laura:** There’s a strong push from vulnerable nations for a revised climate finance target of at least $1 trillion annually. This demand contrasts sharply with the older commitment of $100 billion over a decade. Wealthier nations, however, are pushing back, citing concerns regarding feasibility and urging greater contributions from emerging economies, including China and Saudi Arabia.
**Host:** It sounds like the negotiations could get quite contentious. Beyond the climate talks, you’ve also got your hands full with the European Parliament hearings. What can you tell us about those?
**Laura:** Indeed, it’s a critical time for the EU. The hearings for the new European Commission are underway. Candidates are facing intense scrutiny, especially amid concerns about the political climate influencing their positions. These hearings could determine the future leadership and direction of EU policy, including climate initiatives.
**Host:** How might this “mutual destruction clause” you mentioned affect the outcomes?
**Laura:** It certainly adds an element of uncertainty. The simultaneous hearings mean that the fate of all major candidates is intertwined. If one candidate faces significant backlash, it could jeopardize others. This dynamic could lead to compromises being struck, but it could also stall progress if negotiations become too politicized.
**Host:** Thank you, Laura. It seems that Baku is a pivotal crossroads for climate discussions and European politics. We look forward to your updates from the summit!
**Laura:** Thank you! The next couple of weeks will certainly be eventful, and I’ll keep you posted on any noteworthy developments.
