2023-12-14 04:17:10
During a demonstration once morest the construction of oil wells, in front of the sub-prefecture of Arcachon (Gironde), December 9, 2023. THIBAUD MORITZ / AFP
Will the diplomatic mechanism set up in Dubai (United Arab Emirates) during COP28 be strong enough to accelerate climate action and put the world back on the path to more bearable warming? Sultan Al-Jaber’s hammer had barely fallen on Wednesday, December 13, when many scientists hesitated. Some prefer to see the signal sent to the whole world, others emphasizing the absence of a binding vocabulary. “Climate diplomacy is often small steps, but this step is bigger than the otherssummarizes Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, climatologist and former vice-president of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because it is also a cultural fight and this conference sends the message, to leaders, industrialists, and the general public, that it is necessary to move towards a planet without fossils. »
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It is still impossible to determine precisely what influence this COP text will have, which points out, in an unprecedented way, the responsibility of fossil fuels. An extension of the Paris agreement, the Global Stocktake negotiated in Dubai suffers from the same weakness: not binding, it relies on the goodwill of States. Its success will depend on the policies implemented in the coming months. “New financial sources, new ambitious climate plans and progress in terms of adaptation must still be discussed beyond COP28 and before COP29”projected Laurence Tubiana, president of the European Climate Foundation and architect of the Paris agreement.
In 2015, in Paris, States committed to limiting warming to “significantly below 2°C” et “by continuing the action taken to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5°C”. To measure their efforts, they must present their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years, that is to say their action plan to comply with the text. In terms of form, they are rather playing the game: 94% of the 195 parties have sent their strategy to the UN. The next CDNs, presented no later than 2025, will now have to take into account the new words found in Dubai. Which means that governments should adapt their production and consumption trajectories of fossil fuels.
Climate finance at the heart of COP29 in Baku
If the Paris agreement was not enough – the world is still on a trajectory of +2.7°C – it was not in vain either. According to the Emissions Gap Report of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), published on November 20, greenhouse gas emissions would have been 16% higher than the 2019 level without the Paris agreement, so that the curves currently lead towards an increase of around 2%. Very far from the -43% recommended by the IPCC. Wednesday December 13, on France Inter, the paleoclimatologist and former vice-president of the IPCC, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, has already estimated that the COP28 text would only be enough to reduce emissions by 5%.
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