2023-11-17 07:30:47
A new UN Climate report confirms that national action plans remain insufficient to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5°C by the end of the century. In two weeks, COP28 must constitute a turning point in climate action to change the situation.
COP28 will be held in Dubai from November 28 to December 14. In particular, it will draw the first Global Review of the Paris Agreement with a view to informing the next series of climate action plans – nationally determined contributions, or NDCs – which will be proposed by 2025. And we already know which will have to be accelerated.
In a new report, the United Nations body responsible for climate change, the UNFCCC (also called UN Climate), shows that with current country commitments, global emissions are expected to reach 53.2 billion CO2 equivalent (Gt CO2 eq) in 2025 and 51.6 Gt CO2 eq in 2030, excluding LULUCF sector (land use, land use change and forestry). Compared to 2019, global greenhouse gas emissions would therefore increase by 1% in 2025, but decrease by 2% in 2030.
The report notes a “slight increase in the overall level of ambition of NDCs” compared to last year. Projected emissions thus fall by 0.2 Gt CO2 eq in 2025 and by 0.8 Gt CO2 eq in 2030. If the report once once more shows that emissions will no longer increase following 2030, the reduction remains largely insufficient, compared to what science recommends, to respect the Paris Agreement. Indeed, to have a one in two chance of containing global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century, global emissions must fall by 43% between 2019 and 2030, according to the latest IPCC report.
Taking “giant steps at COP28”
Even with increased efforts by some countries, the report highlights the need for much greater action. We must move on from the politics of “small steps” to “ no giants at COP28 »said Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Climate in a video message accompanying the release of the report. “Governments must not only agree on what tougher climate measures will be taken, but also start showing exactly how to implement them”he added.
To prepare this report, UN Climate analyzed the NDCs of 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement. It takes into account 20 new or updated CDNs submitted until September 25, 2023. However, it does not take into account the updating of the 27 European countries or Brazil, submitted since then. According to the report, the realization of these commitments “depends mainly on access to improved financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation”.
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