Controversy Surrounding Hong Kong’s Population Rebound: Is the Immigration Wave Over?

2023-08-23 08:45:10
Li Chengxin, BBC Chinese correspondent

August 23, 2023 at 8:42 am

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The Hong Kong government recently announced the latest statistics. In 2023, the population of Hong Kong will be nearly 7.5 million, an increase of more than 150,000 year-on-year.

This is the first time since the immigration wave and the epidemic in the past three years, Hong Kong’s population has stopped falling and rebounded. It has formed a gap with the general impression of Hong Kong’s population shrinkage, and has caused controversy among all walks of life whether the “immigration wave is over” or even a “return wave”.

Chief Secretary for Administration Chan Kwok-kei described the population recovery as an “auspicious sign”, reflecting that Hong Kong has emerged from the haze of the “black violence” in 2019 and has entered a new stage of “government and prosperity”. People all over the world are “using their feet” Vote of confidence in Hong Kong.

However, some scholars have questioned the Hong Kong government officials’ statement that “the water is a bit too much”, pointing out that the statistical population rebound does not fully reflect the reality, and the new population cannot offset the impact of the immigration wave. Hong Kong is facing a rapidly aging population and a large loss of labor force crisis.

Where did the 150,000 new population come from?

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The Intellectual Property Program welcomes applications from talents from all over the world, but it seems that 95% of the approved candidates are from mainland China.

According to the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, the provisional figure of Hong Kong’s population in mid-2023 is 7.498 million, which is close to the peak level of 7.507 million in 2019.

Compared with the 7.346 million in the same period last year, the population of Hong Kong has increased by 2.1% this year, an increase of 152,000. The figure comes from the 174,000 “net immigration of Hong Kong residents” during the statistical period, and deducting the 22,000 natural net population reduction (that is, more deaths than births).

Among the above-mentioned 174,000 “net immigration of Hong Kong residents”, there are 31,000 mainland Chinese residents who immigrated with “one-way permits” and 143,000 “other Hong Kong residents”. The official name of the “One-way Permit” is “Exit to Hong Kong and Macau”. It is issued to mainland Chinese residents who have relatives in Hong Kong to go to Hong Kong. Applicants need to cancel their original identity when applying for the permit.

A spokesman for the Hong Kong government explained that the anti-epidemic measures were gradually relaxed in the second half of last year. Many Hong Kong residents who stayed in other places during the epidemic returned to Hong Kong. There will be a large net migration of residents.

Hong Kong public policy scholar Zhong Jianhua told BBC Chinese that the estimated new population includes three types of people. The first type is Hong Kong residents who have long lived in mainland China. Previous official surveys indicated that there are as many as 500,000 Hong Kong people in this group, which is regarding the entire population of Hong Kong. 6% of them were unable to return to Hong Kong due to customs closures due to the epidemic in the past three years. After customs clearance this year, they came back to handle personal affairs.

The second category is foreign domestic helpers. In the past two years, due to the epidemic prevention measures, a large number of foreign domestic helpers have been unable to enter the country.

The third category is the return of elderly Hong Kong residents from overseas. They immigrated to Canada and other places during the immigration wave in the 1980s and 1990s. Therefore, if you choose to return to Hong Kong to settle down, you can hire a foreign domestic helper to take care of you 24 hours a day in Hong Kong.

“It can be seen from the new population that most of them are over 50 years old. It reflects that the returning Hong Kong people are mainly older people, not young new immigrants. So Chen Guoji’s saying “vote with your feet” is a bit watery.”

The “Illusion” Created by “Mobile Residents”

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It is worth noting that of the 152,000 new population this year, only 50,000 were “permanent residents”, and the remaining nearly 100,000 were “floating residents”.

According to the long-standing definition adopted by the Census and Statistics Department, the Hong Kong population is divided into “Usual Residents” and “Mobile Residents”.

“Usual Residents” refer to Hong Kong permanent residents who stayed in Hong Kong for at least 3 months in the 6 months before or following the enumeration, or non-permanent residents who were in Hong Kong at the enumeration. “Mobile residents” refer to Hong Kong permanent residents who have stayed in Hong Kong for at least 1 month but less than 3 months in the 6 months before or following the enumeration, and they do not have to be in Hong Kong at the enumeration.

In other words, as long as Hong Kong residents living outside Hong Kong return to Hong Kong for a month, they will be counted as new population.

Liang Qizhi, a Hong Kong scholar who researched the data, posted an analysis on Facebook that a large number of Hong Kong people from other places returned to Hong Kong temporarily following the opening and closing of Hong Kong, which constituted an increase in the floating population. According to the figures of the Immigration Department, there was a net migration of 347,000 Hong Kong residents at all ports during the same period, which is different from the figures of the Census and Statistics Department.

“For the Immigration Department, you live out of town, come back for a month, and then leave once more. The net inflow or outflow you contribute is 0; but for the Statistics Department, you contribute +1 population growth. If these With enough people, it can offset the reality of immigration and create the illusion of population growth.”

Zhong Jianhua, a scholar now living in the UK, also said that many friends from Hong Kong who immigrated to the UK returned to Hong Kong with their children to visit relatives in May and June this year. During this period, they traveled to Taiwan, Japan and other places. “These people are statistically defined as new population, but does returning to Hong Kong to visit relatives for a month or two represent returning to Hong Kong?”

Why the immigration wave is not over yet

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Market conditions reflect that Hong Kong’s immigration wave has passed its peak but has not yet stopped.

After the anti-amendment movement in 2019 and the implementation of the National Security Law in 2020, a large-scale immigration wave broke out in Hong Kong. The net number of Hong Kong residents leaving Hong Kong through the airport in the past three years was as high as 530,000. During this period, the net number of primary and secondary school students also increased by more than 10. times. Since the UK alone launched the BNO program, nearly 170,000 Hong Kong people have applied.

Hu Kangbang, who runs an immigration consulting company in Hong Kong, told BBC Chinese that the peak period of the immigration wave from 2019 to 2020 has passed, but this year he still receives an average of 450 to 500 immigration inquiries per month, of which 30 to 40 are signed.

“Actually, the numbers haven’t changed much, but the types of immigrants are different. Because Australia and Canada have changed their policies and stopped accepting investment immigrants, most of the current clients are skilled immigrants.”

He revealed that young people mainly use BNO and lifeboat plans to leave. “Some people apply to go to Canada and wait for three years without approval, and continue to make money in Hong Kong. In short, wait until the documents are approved and then leave.”

Under this trend, he predicts that the immigration wave will continue in the next three to five years. “I also really want to tell the story of Hong Kong from governance to prosperity. But the reality is that Hong Kong’s economic data is very poor, with 400,000 to 500,000 people moving out, and the number of immigrant visas signed by my company has not decreased significantly, and the number is very stable. .”

Earlier this year, Deng Jianyi, deputy director of the Public Policy Research Center of the Hang Seng University of Hong Kong, and Yuen Weixi, an associate professor of the Department of Politics and International Relations of the Hong Kong Baptist University, conducted a questionnaire survey and found that only 30% of Hong Kong citizens did not plan to immigrate, and 44.2% said they “plan to Immigration, but no plan”, 14% “plan to immigrate, plan to leave within two years”, 11.1% “plan to immigrate, plan to leave within 5 years”.

aging population

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According to some analysis, most of the population lost in Hong Kong in the past few years is the population aged 20 to 39, while the population aged 60 or above has increased significantly. This may exacerbate the aging of Hong Kong in the future.

The immigration of young people and the return of old people have exacerbated the aging of Hong Kong’s population.

Lam Chi-yin, a researcher at the “Hong Kong Vision Program” of the Hong Kong Policy Research Institute, wrote an analysis in “Ming Pao”. Comparing the latest figures from the Census and Statistics Department with the figures in 2018, it can be seen that most of the population lost in Hong Kong in the past few years was 20 to 39 years old. Is the population aged 60 or over.

“On the one hand, it is an indisputable fact that the young population has dropped sharply, and the departure of this group of people represents a loss of manpower and capital; on the other hand, the plan for the new population to come to Hong Kong is unknown. One plus one minus , not a simple “make a peace”.”

She pointed out that in terms of population structure, the proportion of the elderly in the total population continues to rise. Even if the number of people immigrating to Hong Kong in the future is as expected, it will not be able to offset the impact of aging. Hong Kong’s overall labor force participation rate will drop from 57.2% in 2021 to 51.6% in 2046.

On the other hand, the birth rate in Hong Kong has hit a record low once more. The latest survey by the Hong Kong Family Planning Association (FPA) found that the average number of children for Hong Kong couples dropped from 1.3 five years ago to 0.9.

Yip Siu-fai, honorary consultant of the Family Accounting Association and chair professor of the Department of Social Work and Social Administration of the University of Hong Kong, said in a radio program that the Hong Kong government’s population projections are too optimistic, and Hong Kong has entered a “negative natural growth situation”, that is, the number of deaths exceeds the number of births. According to the current trend, the fertility rate will definitely decline once more. It is estimated that the number of births per woman will further drop to 0.6 in the next 5 to 6 years. The situation is very serious.

He pointed out that the maintenance of the population in the future will depend on immigration, and the government should also think regarding how to “accumulate grain to prevent hunger” and expand elderly care services early. “There are not enough nursing homes, and there are not enough medical services. What should I do? Sooner or later it will burst (break)… 65 years old is still the retirement age, and no one pays taxes anymore.”

Can the lost workforce be filled?

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The survey shows that the problem of manpower shortage in Hong Kong enterprises has become more serious in the past year.

Under the tide of immigration, Hong Kong has lost 200,000 laborers in the past three years, half of whom are mid-to-high-end talents.

In his first policy address last year, Chief Executive Lee Ka-chao threatened to “snatch talents”. The goal is to attract 35,000 talents each year in the next three years. Since its launch, the Hong Kong government has received more than 41,000 applications and approved more than 30,000 applications. Nearly 95% of those approved are from mainland China, and more than 10,000 people have arrived in Hong Kong.

Zhou Qiping, a human resources consultant and managing director of Yizhi Consulting Company, told BBC Chinese that the approval threshold for Gaocaitong is extremely low, and it can be approved in as little as one or two days. It is easier than tourist visas and work visas. Many people in mainland China borrow With this pass, I can go to Hong Kong for tourism, conferences and even childbirth. “I have also seen that some mainland job seekers will write their “Gao Caitong” on their resumes, which seems to be a bonus.”

Gao Caitong applicants do not need to be hired by an employer first, as long as they have graduated from a top 100 university in the world and have at least three years of work experience, they are eligible. Zhou Qiping believes that the quality of talents is questionable. “Frankly speaking, there are several top 100 universities in Hong Kong. These graduates have been working for three to five years, and they have not even reached the supervisory level at any time. They are not high-end talents, but young talents at most. Therefore, the people of Gaocaitong How high-end is it?”

Senior officials of the SAR have repeatedly stated that the response to Gaocaitong has been more enthusiastic than expected, which fully proves that Hong Kong is attractive to talents from all over the world. But how many of these “high-end talents” have been converted into Hong Kong’s working population? The government does not keep their employment records.

Scholar Zhong Jianhua pointed out that Gaocaitong is not aimed at the needs of employers, but a plan conceived by the administration and the will of the chief executive, which is divorced from the current situation of the job market.

Zhou Qiping, a human resources consultant, also questioned the authority’s emphasis on quantity rather than quality: “The government keeps saying that the response is very enthusiastic, with tens of thousands of people applying. The number of applications is of course very bright. But the point is, how many of these people have obtained the permits? Really come to Hong Kong to find a long-term job to contribute to the labor force? If the government does not have the relevant data, or has the data but does not publish it, we will have no way of knowing how deep the water is.”

She emphasized that Hong Kong has no natural resources and is a service center. Human resources are very important. At present, there is a severe shortage of talents in retail services, medical care, technology, engineering and other fields.

According to a questionnaire survey conducted by the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce in April this year, 74% of the interviewed companies reported that they were facing a shortage of talents, and more than 80% of them said that the situation had lasted for more than a year.

Recently, “Xiangxiang Bread”, which has a history of more than half a century and was once the second largest bakery in Hong Kong, announced its closure. The reason is that it has been unable to hire people since the year before the end of the epidemic.

“It didn’t go bankrupt because of lack of business, but closed down because it mightn’t hire people for a long time. If even the time-honored brand is like this, new companies and outside companies are even more afraid to invest in Hong Kong. How can they operate without human resources? If things go on like this, Hong Kong’s economy will suffer. will slide.”

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