In any case, sources from the Argentine Industrial Union clarified that the situation is “heterogeneous”, which means that there are companies that continue to access the Single Exchange Market (Mulc), while others have other coverage costs, such as use future dollar. For example, from a textile company they said that they took out an exchange insurance in Rofex, with a dollar at $172. Meanwhile, the companies that obtain financing abroad, they move to the official, but they charge the production the cost of financing, above 8% per year in dollars.
In the first fortnight of July alone, inflation was 7.9%, according to a private survey by the consulting firm Ecolatina: “Together with certain restrictions on imports imposed at the end of June, the high uncertainty about replacement costs was a factor that influenced pricing,” they reported.
Although the financial volatility and the gap resemble what happened in October 2020, when the blue dollar touched the historical high of $195, the current situation is different. “Pricing was different from today,” explained Santiago Manoukian, economist at Ecolatina. Until the latest BCRA measure, companies imported at the official exchange rate. “Now imports have been more restricted, so companies have to resort to their own dollars or parallel dollars, so the more they take to that market, the influence of the CCL or the MEP on price setting will be greater. . Y there are companies that want to continue importing to respond to a demand that has accelerated, for example in household appliances sales grew 24% in the accumulated of the yearand so in other sectors of durable goods with a high imported component”, he detailed.
The “replacement dollar” varies in each case, explained Jose Luis Lopetegui, Secretary of Foreign Trade of CAME. “There are operators that work with future dollars, others with CCL, others with the official, it depends on whether they have space left, but those who no longer have space have to think that they will only pay for the merchandise in 180 days”he explained. Those that may have greater flexibility are some SMEs, which were allowed a higher quota, of 15% above 2021, if they imported less than US$1 million. “If companies could finance themselves abroad, it would be more predictable, but for an SME it is not easy,” added Lopetegui, who said that they maintain a constant dialogue with the Government for the supply of inputs.
In any case, a higher exchange rate to import does not always translate into prices, due to demand, as explained by Alberto Pérez, from the chamber of machine and tool manufacturers. “Companies are using their own dollars, which they acquire for a minimum of $290, and thus they can pay abroad. There may be increases because it is not known what value the inputs will have when they have to be replaced. When there is no option, the demand validates it. But since we manufacture capital goods, and that’s if it’s allowed to come in, the finished machine from Asia at $130 is much cheaper than us importing with $290 inputs. With the official dollar you compete, with the parallel you stay out”, explained Perez.
In the same company, the “replacement dollar” can take different values depending on the product. In one company, they said that in products that have non-automatic licenses, which are paid in 180 days, the CCL exchange rate is used, which exceeded $300, with the owners using one of their accounts abroad. If instead of being an input it is a final good, that rise is not fully transferred to the final price, since it would imply increases of more than 100%, with a market that is going to be increasingly “recessive”, they clarified. . While, if they are automatic licenses, where that same company pays 20% in advance, they maintain the official dollar. Another of the strategies, according to a Customs dispatcher, is to directly stop importing and wait if new flexibilizations arise from the Central Bank.