The positive numbers shown by supermarket sales in Ñuble last February, as well as the year-on-year increase in overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments in the region, are interpreted by some as the first signs of recovery of the local economy, online With what is happening at the national level, which is expected to experience an average growth of 2% this year, leaving behind the red numbers of last year.
Indeed, according to the INE, the Supermarket Sales Index in the region recorded an increase of 1.3% year-on-year in February, thus breaking the bad streak of 21 consecutive months with negative variations of the indicator.
Similarly, the Monthly Tourist Accommodation Survey (EMAT), which is also prepared by the INE, showed in February an increase of 28.2% in overnight stays in the region, compared to the same month in 2023; as well as a slight increase of 0.4 points in the room occupancy rate.
Another interesting fact is the apparent recovery of regional exports. According to Odepa, with data from the Customs Directorate, in the January-February period, forestry and agricultural shipments accumulated an interannual increase of 46.1%, largely influenced by the recovery of pulp shipments and also by the growth of exports. of fresh fruit, such as blueberries and cherries.
However, there are other indicators that continue to show declines, such as automobile sales, which in February registered a year-on-year contraction of 15.9% in Ñuble, accumulating 21 consecutive months of declines.
Growing process
In the opinion of Dr. César Salazar Espinoza, academic at the Faculty of Business Sciences of the University of Bío-Bío (FACE UBB), “there is clearly a trend here in the Ñuble region that follows the national trend.”
He explained that “there is a process of growth, following having left the pandemic behind and also some adjustments at the international level, movements at the international level, such as the war that was generated between Russia and Ukraine, then, all of that begins to dissipate a little. little and conditions begin to generate a little more stability at the international and national level. “This has allowed us to resume a path of growth at the national level and that is being transferred to the region.”
“The supermarket sales and overnight stay indicators are positive at the national level and also at the regional level. One would hope that they are signs of growth paths in the year. Now, consumption is the first thing that begins to adjust positively when there are good signs. Tourism, that is also super relevant, because tourism has often been a non-priority expense and an increase in tourism is seen as something quite positive. Finally comes investment, which has been low, but one would hope that, if this initial growth based on consumption and services strengthens, then investment will come alone,” the teacher stated.
Asked regarding a possible recovery during the rest of the year, Dr. Salazar said that he prefers to talk regarding “returning a little to the path of growth because the recovery comes from something, and in some way we are already level in relation to the pandemic and Now, everything that comes should be growth. So, one hopes that the behavior of these sectors during the year will be maintained.”
“In the case of tourism – continued the academic – it has a clearly cyclical component, in which February marks a peak and then begins to reduce and then rises once more with the winter season, where the Ñuble region is characterized by offering services and some important tourist destinations, such as the Chillán Hot Springs and the mountain range in general. In this way, as there was a signal that recovered in February, one would expect that in winter it will also begin to resume this path of growth a little.”
On the other hand, he raised the challenge that these positive numbers also be observed in investment and employment. “Employment is an indicator that reacts following these consumption indicators, and also investment indicators,” she stated.
The FACE UBB teacher stated that, “currently, what we see is a recovery in the consumption of goods and services, people are spending more; This is also due a little to the fact that inflation has been adjusted a little, we are already reaching within the target range and the Central Bank has stopped being so restrictive in its monetary policy, following having the interest rate very high due to the issue. inflationary, but we have been seeing a little more controlled price growth, on average adjusting to the target range of 2%-4%, therefore, this gives signs that the Central Bank has already started with a downward trend in its interest rate and that will also decompress investment a little, because to invest you need resources, credits, financial funds of great magnitude and these are obtained in the banks, so, with this, one hopes that there will be a recovery of the investment and investment does bring growth in employment. Therefore, in the coming months we are not going to see employment growth so clearly, but one hopes, if this continues like this, that investment will begin to get back on track and more jobs will be generated,” concluded Dr. Salazar.
Outlook for trade
Bernardita Silva Aldunate, Studies Manager of the National Chamber of Commerce (CNC), highlighted the positive results of retail sales in the first two months of the year, following a negative 2023, “reaffirming the change in trend seen in the moving quarters from the second half of last year and, above all, in the last quarter of the year.”
“In the results of the first two months of the year, the categories of clothing and electrical appliances stand out, the latter being influenced by a smaller basis of comparison, which is present in all durable categories. For its part, footwear, followed by furniture, are the items that still show annual declines,” he said.
“We see, then,” the professional analyzed, “a 2024 that begins with better economic data, the January Imacec marked an annual increase of 2.3%, the largest increase since August 2022 and where all sectors have a positive impact on the final result, a situation that has not happened since December 2021.”
“As for the commerce sector, it marked an annual increase of 2.1% in January and in seasonally adjusted terms it grew 2% compared to December, reaffirming a change in trend following a 2023 of strong slowdown in private consumption.”
Furthermore, in February, to the surprise of many, the Imacec showed an increase of 4.5%, which aroused optimism not only among the authorities, but also among economic actors.
Silva added that, “consumer confidence (IPEC) also rebounded in February, thus marking slight increases in the last three months, highlighting an improvement in the current personal economic situation and in the economic situation of the country, however, they fell slightly in the second month of the year consumption expectations for household items.”
The CNC Studies Manager predicted that, “by 2024 we expect a slow recovery of the commerce sector, in line with a weakened economy that grew 0.2% in 2023. We must consider that private consumption depends largely on reactivate the labor market, which is directly related to investment, which marked a decline in the last quarter of last year, both in annual terms and in the seasonally adjusted series compared to the third quarter. So the great challenge is to recover growth through more and better investments that create formal, quality employment.”
Tourism recovery path
Augusto González Jeldres, regional director of Sernatur, said that “the positive figures we had in February, where we were the best region in terms of occupancy increase compared to last year, are explained, in my opinion, by three factors. The first has to do with the fact that the comparison base for the previous year was lower due to the low overnight stays in February due to the fires of 2023.”
“The second thing,” he continued, “is the promotion and dissemination process that we have carried out as Sernatur regarding the creation of the Ñuble brand and the subsequent launch of the media plan in November and December. And the third thing, regarding the work that we have carried out together with the Regional Government, of being able to promote the destinations of Ñuble in the different instances, whether within the region, but, above all, in Santiago and Concepción.”
However, González expressed that, “to talk regarding recovery in the field of tourism, it is necessary to see data beyond one month, a longer period. And what the figures are giving us is that there is a significant upward process that has us today, with figures comparable to what was happening pre-pandemic, which is our main challenge, that is, recovering the rhythm we had before the pandemic, challenge that not only belongs to Ñuble, but belongs to the entire country, and I believe that we are on the right path; Although, a definitive recovery, I do not think it is possible to affirm at this time.”
Asked regarding the March data, the director of Sernatur Ñuble acknowledged that, “effectively, what we have in view is the occupancy rate for Holy Week, and although Las Trancas had a decrease (of 5.6 points) compared to with Holy Week the previous year, it is important to highlight that Cobquecura (57.7%) and Las Trancas (58.4%) were above the national occupancy average (55.8%), and both were within the four best destinations in the southern area; In the case of Cobquecura, for example, it registered an increase of 12.2 points compared to Easter 2023, therefore, we are expecting that the March data from the EMAT will also be auspicious.”
“We estimate that during this year 2024 we must trend upward, this based on the promotion and dissemination actions that we have been carrying out and that we continue to carry out in different places and different channels; two, because there is effectively a recovery in the rest of the economic activity, that is, there is greater availability of resources so that families can go out; and three, because the union itself, the Regional Government and other public and private entities have made an effort to promote themselves, generate marketing strategies to position the name of the Ñuble region in the concert of national and international tourism,” González summarized.
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