The PVV led by Geert Wilders won twice as many seats as before in the new 150-seat parliament and will have the largest parliamentary group with 37 representatives.
It is followed by the 25-seat bloc of the Labor Party (PvdA) and the Green Left Party (GroenLinks) led by former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans, the centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy of outgoing Prime Minister Marko Rutte ( VVD) with 24 seats and the newly formed centrist New Social Deal (NSC) party, which won 20 seats in Wednesday’s elections.
The social liberals D66 will get nine seats, while the conservative party Christian Democratic Appeal (Christen-Democratisch Appel, CDA) will get five. The results of the Farmers and Citizens Movement (BBB) were also surprising: although it secured seven seats, it still fell short of expectations after a very good performance in the regional elections in March.
PVV, which wins the election, will probably be the first to be tasked with forming a government. However, forming a stable governing coalition seems difficult, as PVV will need to convince at least two partners. If they fail, other parties will have to negotiate later, and the alternative could be a grand coalition. The prospects for negotiations to form another government are uncertain and likely to be long again, notes Coface.
The election was called in July after the collapse of Mr Rutte’s government, which included the VVD, D66, CDA and the Christian Union (ChristenUnie, CU). The VVD took a tougher stance on immigration policy and wanted to reduce the number of refugees, but the CU blocked this move. Among other things, Mr Rutte later announced his retirement from politics.
At the start of the election campaign, the agriculture-oriented BBB was leading the polls by a large margin, as the dominant political issue was the EU’s new environmental requirements, which aim to drastically reduce nitrate emissions. The Dutch government has announced that by 2030, among other things, it wants 50% reduce emissions from fertilizers, which would mean an end of about 30 percent. farms in the Netherlands. The BBB, which opposes these measures, won the regional elections this March by a large margin, but later lost ground.
In opposition to the BBB, Social Democrat F. Timmermans resigned from the position of Vice-President of the European Commission and Commissioner responsible for climate change and took the helm of the GL/PvdA alliance. In August, the newly established NSC also joined the election campaign. Its founder Pieter Omtzigt left his previous party CDA due to personal differences.
The NSC is a Christian Democratic party that advocates a social market economy, but also opposes deeper EU integration. Until the beginning of November, the NSC led the polls, followed by the VVD. Under its new leader, Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius, who emigrated to the Netherlands from Turkey as a child, the VVD took a firmer position on the right of the political spectrum. However, after 13 years of VVD rule, the party went through very difficult times. In addition, the issue of limiting immigration, which PVV has been mentioning for almost 20 years, became increasingly important in the fall.
Now there are several coalition options. PVV, as the winner of the election, will probably be the first to be tasked with forming a government. PVV is considered an anti-Islamist and Eurosceptic political force. She called for a ban on mosques and the Koran in the Netherlands, which scared off potential coalition partners. However, after G. Wilders recently expressed a somewhat more moderate view that these things should now be put on hold, the VVD hinted that it could work with the PVV if the latter did not nominate its representative as prime minister.
However, on Friday Yesilgoz-Zegerius, Mr Rutte’s political successor, said her party would not officially join the new coalition but could support it in parliament.
According to Coface, a coalition with the NSC is possible, as all three parties support immigration restrictions and some exceptions to EU environmental regulations. However, the exit from the EU, which PVV wants, would not be acceptable to any party.
This could be the first government in the history of the Netherlands in which PVV is directly involved. In the past, there has only been a minority government led by Mr. Rutte with the support of PVV. However, such a structure existed for only two years.
F. Timmermans has expressed objections to working in a coalition with PVV, so the only other alternative for them would be to gather many small parties, although such a cabinet would probably not be very stable or successful.
GL/PvdA could in turn form a coalition with VVD and NSC. Although it would not have an absolute majority and would need the support of another smaller party such as D66, it could be workable.
“With this turn of events, it will be interesting to see where the Social Democrats and Conservatives end up, as they have clearly highlighted their differences during the election campaign, especially on immigration, welfare and environmental issues,” as it is not clear whether the prospect of a PVV government would be sufficient reason for a coalition, Coface said. ” in our assessment.
Finally, a minority government with VVD and NSC would be possible. However, she would have to rally support in parliament on every issue.
In general, it is clear that forming a stable government will be difficult and will probably take a long time again. A coalition of the PVV, VVD and NSC is most likely, but even if another alternative emerges, the government’s policies are likely to be more hostile to higher immigration and stronger EU integration, and less progress will be made on environmental protection than planned, even though half of the Netherlands is at risk of flooding – a quarter of land area is already below sea level.
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2024-09-02 00:33:55