2024-01-21 19:32:41
Despite the weak El Niño, the rains will continue on the coast
As is known, the latest bulletin from the Multisector Commission in charge of the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen) indicates that the probability of a weak coastal El Niño increased, which would generate conditions of return to normal temperatures in the sea and rains.
According to the deputy director of Climate Prediction of the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (Senamhi), Grinia Avalos, warm air temperature conditions would persist along the northern and central coast in this summer of 2024, and the most It is likely that the rains on the north coast and the northern mountains will register values between normal and above normal, especially in January.
READ ALSO: Precipitation will continue on the north coast and mountains: until when?
READ ALSO: El Niño phenomenon: how has it impacted Peru in recent years?
Likewise, he explained that the rain scenarios in the northern part of the country such as Piura, Tumbes, Lambayeque and its Andean areas, are of conditions between normal and above normal. Furthermore, these rainfall would be localized.
“Enfen has indicated that by February [El Niño costero] might have a warm to weak declination. This means that the sea is still warm, but not as warm as months ago. When the sea is a little warmer it always affects the behavior of air temperatures,” said Avalos Roldán.
“Faced with a scenario of a weak El Niño, the scenario of intense – excessive rains is also more unlikely to occur. Despite this, rains of moderate intensity are not ruled out, but with a more localized condition between Tumbes and Piura, especially in January. February and March are more likely to see rainfall decrease significantly, mainly in the central mountains,” he added.
Despite the weakening of the coastal El Niño, the rains will persist, but in a localized manner in areas between the regions of Piura and Tumbes. (Photo: Senamhi)
La Niña in Peru, will it happen this year?
The report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America reveals that “the probabilities of La Niña occurring in the seasons following a change to ENSO (El Niño) are increasing to 73%. Southern Oscillation) neutral”.
It is worth specifying that Enfen told the Andean Agency that, it must be taken into account that when NOAA mentions a probable occurrence of La Niña, it refers to a cooling of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and not necessarily to the cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean ( region 1 + 2) that corresponds to the Peruvian sea.
Along these lines, the deputy director of Climate Prediction of Senamhi stated that the occurrence of La Niña in Peru cannot yet be confirmed. The official commented that the models prepared by international agencies taken during these months may not be accurate, so it is too early to announce the occurrence of this event.
READ ALSO: After a weak El Niño, La Niña might arrive: What would it do to the climate of Peru?
He added that if cold conditions occur in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean for a period of up to five months, a possible La Niña scenario would be occurring, and that it might occur from the second half of the year.
“If the sea is cooling now it is not necessarily because La Niña has already begun. To speak of La Niña conditions, the sea has to report at least five consecutive months with cold temperatures,” remarked the Senamhi representative.
“We must consider that the models prepared by international agencies that are issued in March, April and May have limitations and there may be inaccurate forecasts. Some international models report cold conditions that might become the La Niña event starting in the second half of the year. [a partir de julio de este año]but it has to be monitored.”
Cold conditions that might become the La Niña Phenomenon would begin in the second half of the year. (Photo: INTA)
Districts of Lima hit by temperatures of up to 32° C
The warm temperatures reported to date in Lima coincide with the Senamhi report published in December of last year. According to the forecast, the capital of Peru will have days with values higher than 30°C during the summer of 2024.
In the case of Metropolitan Lima, Senamhi foresees daytime temperatures between 27 °C and 31 ° and night temperatures between 20 °C and 23 °C until the end of January.
On the other hand, in the Lima Region, maximum temperatures will be recorded between 25 °C and 32 °C; while, during the night the values will range between 17 °C and 22 °C.
Among the districts of Lima that report the highest temperatures so far in January are: Ate, Santa Anita, Chaclacayo, La Molina, Lurigancho – Chosica, Cieneguilla, San Luis and San Juan de Lurigancho.
“Temperatures are maintained above normal values. For February and March the temperature is 27°C and the minimum value is 20°C, and borders on 29°C and 30°C. We do not rule out that thermometers register up to 31°C in some districts,” commented Grinia Avalos.
On the other hand, he said that the so-called summer rains are not ruled out, which are usually the product of the transfer of clouds from the central mountains of the country.
However, Senamhi also predicted a slight increase with peaks of up to 32 °C in some districts. “At the beginning of February the temperature of eastern Lima, which includes the districts of La Molina, San Juan de Lurigancho, Santa Anita, Ate, among others, will be between 30 and 31 °C, with some peaks that might reach 32 °C”, he specified.
High temperature peaks of up to 32°C will hit districts of Metropolitan Lima. (Photo: GEC)
Are you expecting a warm autumn?
Given the Enfen report on the weakening intensity of the coastal El Niño Phenomenon, the deputy director of Climate Prediction at Senamhi, Grinia Avalos, pointed out that the fall season – which runs from March 20 to June 21 – will present normal conditions. As is known, in 2022, this season presented normal to warm temperatures due to the warming of the sea.
“Depending on how the conditions of the weak Niño evolve, until March we would be entering a condition where air temperatures return to normal so that we enter a normal autumn.”
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