[의학신문·일간보사=김현기 기자] Medical staff at the Catholic Central Medical Center developed a model to predict the risk of liver cancer following hepatitis B is cured through a large-scale long-term study.
Department of Gastroenterology, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital Professor Jeong-won Jang (corresponding author) and Eunpyeong St. Mary’s Hospital Professor Yang Hyun (first author) announced on the 13th that they have developed the world’s first liver cancer risk prediction model for patients who have lost the hepatitis B surface antigen. .
First of all, Professor Jang’s team studied 1,443 chronic hepatitis B patients who had lost the hepatitis B surface antigen, closely followed at a hospital affiliated with the Catholic Medical Center, for up to 30 years and studied using a large-scale cohort.
Results: ▲ Age at the time of hepatitis B surface antigen loss ▲ Presence of liver cirrhosis ▲ Excessive alcohol consumption (more than 2 drinks per day for men and 1 drink per day for women) was identified as a risk factor.
Professor Jang’s team developed a risk prediction model for HCC using these four risk factors, and the 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year predictive values evaluated by the time-dependent ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve were 0.799, 0.835, and 0.835, respectively. It was reported that the predictability was excellent as 0.817.
In addition, the ROC curve is a performance evaluation index, and when the ROC curve area is 0.8 or more, it is evaluated as a predictive model with excellent performance.
Professor Jang said, “The model developed through this study is the world’s first predictive model for the risk of liver cancer following hepatitis B is cured. It is expected that this will contribute to the development of a guide for the proper clinical management of patients who have been cured of hepatitis B.”
Professor Yang said, “This study is very meaningful in that it revealed that liver cancer can occur even following hepatitis B is cured, and which patients should be closely followed. If you already have liver cancer, have a family history of liver cancer, drink a lot, or are elderly, it is important not to miss the liver cancer monitoring test.”
Meanwhile, the results of this study were published in the September issue of ‘Journal of Hepatology (Citation Index IF=30.083)’, the most prestigious international academic journal in the field of liver science.
