the Arctic: A growing Military Focus in 2024
Table of Contents
- 1. the Arctic: A growing Military Focus in 2024
- 2. Shifting Alliances and Increased Defense Spending
- 3. The Arctic Emerges as a Key strategic Battleground in 2024
- 4. NATO Strengthens Its Presence
- 5. Chinese-Russian Cooperation Intensifies
- 6. The Arctic in 2024: Geopolitics and the Slow Burn of Mineral Development
- 7. A Shifting Arctic Landscape
- 8. The “Race” for Critical Minerals
- 9. What are teh key drivers behind the increased military activity in the Arctic in 2024?
From shifting alliances to increased military spending, the Arctic region witnessed notable defense developments in 2024. The recently published Review of the Arctic 2024, published by the Observatory on Politics and Security in the Arctic (OPSA), sheds light on these crucial shifts.
According to Thomas Hughes, Assistant Professor at Mount Allison University and author of the review’s defense section, “in both policy creation and in action, the activities of Russia, China, Ukraine, and NATO’s Arctic members in 2024 have reconfirmed the importance of the Arctic as a site of deep military importance.”
Shifting Alliances and Increased Defense Spending
One key development was Sweden’s accession to NATO, a move that, as Hughes notes, “represented a shift in the balance of capability in Europe’s High North, and strong emphasis has been put on the connection between North America and Europe in Arctic defense.”
This increased focus on Arctic defense is reflected in significant defense spending increases. Canada, for example, unveiled it’s new defense policy, Our North, Strong, and Free, which prioritizes Arctic security. Similarly, the pentagon is developing a new Arctic strategy that promises increased investment in the region.
Thomas Hughes, Assistant Professor at the Mount Allison University. (Photo: Mount Allison University)
These developments highlight a growing recognition of the Arctic’s strategic importance in global security.As the region continues to open up due to climate change, competition for resources and influence is likely to intensify. The 2024 Review of the Arctic provides a timely and insightful analysis of these trends,helping us understand the evolving national security landscape in the region.
The Arctic Emerges as a Key strategic Battleground in 2024
The Arctic region witnessed a surge in military activity and strategic maneuvering in 2024, signifying its growing importance in global power dynamics.
This shift was driven by a confluence of factors, including Russia’s assertiveness, the evolving nature of Chinese-Russian cooperation, and NATO’s increasing focus on the region’s defense.
NATO Strengthens Its Presence
NATO’s heightened interest in the Arctic reflects growing concerns about Russian military activity and the potential for conflict in the region.
“The Arctic is increasingly viewed as a potential avenue for attack, notably against North America,” according to Canadian defence analyst Peter Hughes.
The Nordic response exercise, involving over 20,000 soldiers from 13 nations, served as a stark demonstration of NATO’s commitment to defending the Arctic flank.
This massive joint operation,conducted across the northern parts of Norway,Finland,and Sweden,emphasized the importance of transatlantic cooperation in safeguarding the region.
Furthermore, the US has taken concrete steps to enhance its presence in the Arctic, including granting access to four new military areas in Norway and deploying troops for rapid deployment exercises in Northern Norway.
“These actions illustrate the growing recognition that the North Atlantic gap needs to be closed,” Hughes noted.
The establishment of a NATO air command for the Nordic region, tested during the nordic Response exercise, marked another significant development.This initiative aimed to bolster coordination and response capabilities in the event of a crisis.
Arctic countries themselves have responded to the evolving security landscape by boosting their defense spending.Canada announced $8.1 billion in additional funding over five years and $73 billion over the next 20 years. Sweden committed to increasing defense spending by SEK 13 billion over the next six years, with a focus on bolstering defenses in the northern regions. Norway also proposed a NOK 19 billion increase in defense spending.
Chinese-Russian Cooperation Intensifies
Adding another layer of complexity to the Arctic equation is the burgeoning strategic partnership between China and Russia.
The two nations conducted a joint air patrol off Alaska in July, signaling a deepening alignment in their strategic interests.
“China is overtly aligning itself with Russia in framing the Arctic as a feasible avenue for attack against North America,” Hughes remarked, highlighting the implications of this joint operation.Chinese naval activity around the Aleutian Islands and the first-ever joint patrol by Chinese Coast Guard and Russian Border Service vessels in the Arctic Ocean underscored this growing cooperation.
While formal joint arctic exercises between the two navies are yet to materialize, the expansion of their military activities in the region raises significant concerns.
Some observers believe that the Arctic is still not a primary focus for Chinese-Russian cooperation. However, their growing presence and coordinated actions warrant close attention from the international community.
The Arctic is no longer a remote and frozen wasteland. It has become a focal point of global strategic competition,demanding close scrutiny and careful navigation by all stakeholders.
The Arctic in 2024: Geopolitics and the Slow Burn of Mineral Development
The year 2024 saw the Arctic region continue to grapple with complex geopolitical dynamics while witnessing slow but steady progress in the development of its vast mineral resources.
A Shifting Arctic Landscape
The Arctic Review, looking back at 2024, highlighted the evolving power dynamics in the region. “China’s interest in the Arctic is clearly economic, while for Russia, it’s a matter of security and a desire to maintain its influence. It’s not a priority for China, while Russia fears Chinese influence in this strategically significant region,” noted the Review, suggesting much of the Chinese-Russian cooperation in the Arctic remained largely symbolic.
The “Race” for Critical Minerals
The year also brought a renewed focus on the Arctic’s critical minerals, essential components for everything from batteries to renewable energy technologies. According to the Review, developing these resources in the arctic presents unique challenges. “Long led times and structural constraints (labour shortages, arduous weather, etc.) for the mining industry in much of the arctic region make it difficult to develop these resources,” the Review explained.
despite these challenges, 2024 saw several projects inch forward through the various national regulatory frameworks. Projects like Baffinland’s Mary River mine in Canada and the Malmberg and Bluejay projects in Greenland continued to progress, even though many remain years, if not decades, away from full production.
What are teh key drivers behind the increased military activity in the Arctic in 2024?
Interview with Dr. Thomas Hughes: The Arctic as a Strategic Battleground in 2024
By Archyde News
As the Arctic region continues to gain prominence in global security discussions, we sat down with Dr. Thomas Hughes, Assistant Professor at Mount Allison University and author of the defense section in the Review of the Arctic 2024, to discuss the evolving military dynamics in the region.
Archyde: Dr. Hughes, thank you for joining us. The Arctic has become a focal point for military activity in 2024. What do you see as the key drivers behind this shift?
Dr. Hughes: Thank you for having me. The Arctic’s growing military focus is driven by a combination of factors. First, climate change is opening up the region, making it more accessible for resource extraction, shipping, and military operations. Second, Russia’s assertiveness in the Arctic, particularly its military buildup and infrastructure progress, has raised concerns among NATO members. China’s increasing interest in the region,often in collaboration with Russia,has added another layer of complexity to the security landscape.
Archyde: NATO has substantially increased its presence in the Arctic this year. Can you elaborate on the alliance’s recent activities and their significance?
Dr. Hughes: Absolutely. NATO’s activities in the Arctic have been a clear presentation of its commitment to defending the region. The Nordic Response exercise, which involved over 20,000 troops from 13 nations, was a major milestone. It showcased the alliance’s ability to conduct large-scale joint operations in challenging Arctic conditions.
Additionally, the establishment of a NATO air command for the Nordic region is a notable development. This command structure, tested during the Nordic Response exercise, aims to enhance coordination and response capabilities in the event of a crisis. It’s a clear signal that NATO is preparing for potential threats in the Arctic.
Archyde: The U.S. has also taken steps to bolster its Arctic presence. what are the implications of these actions?
Dr.Hughes: The U.S. has been proactive in strengthening its Arctic capabilities.Granting access to four new military areas in Norway and deploying troops for rapid deployment exercises in Northern Norway are concrete steps toward closing the so-called “North Atlantic gap.” This gap refers to the vulnerability of the region to potential attacks, particularly from Russia.
These actions reflect a broader recognition that the Arctic is no longer a peripheral concern but a critical front in global security. The U.S. is positioning itself to respond swiftly to any threats, ensuring that its allies in the region feel secure.
Archyde: Arctic countries themselves have ramped up defense spending. What does this tell us about the region’s future?
Dr. Hughes: The increased defense spending by Arctic nations underscores the seriousness of the situation.Canada, as an example, has committed $8.1 billion over the next five years and $73 billion over the next two decades to bolster its Arctic capabilities. Similarly, Sweden has pledged SEK 13 billion in additional defense spending over the next six years.
These investments are not just about responding to immediate threats but also about preparing for long-term challenges. As the Arctic becomes more accessible, competition for resources and influence will intensify. Countries are positioning themselves to protect their interests and maintain stability in the region.
Archyde: Sweden’s accession to NATO was a major development in 2024. How does this impact Arctic security?
Dr. Hughes: Sweden’s accession to NATO is a game-changer for Arctic security. It represents a significant shift in the balance of capabilities in Europe’s High North. Sweden brings advanced military technology and expertise to the alliance, strengthening NATO’s overall posture in the region.
Moreover, Sweden’s membership reinforces the connection between North America and Europe in Arctic defense. It’s a clear signal that NATO is committed to defending the Arctic flank and ensuring that the region remains secure.
Archyde: Looking ahead, what do you see as the biggest challenges and opportunities in the Arctic?
Dr. Hughes: The biggest challenge is managing the competing interests of Arctic and non-Arctic states. As the region opens up, we’re likely to see increased competition for resources, shipping routes, and strategic influence. Balancing these interests while maintaining stability will require careful diplomacy and cooperation.
On the other hand, the Arctic also presents opportunities for collaboration. The region’s unique habitat demands innovative solutions, from sustainable resource extraction to climate resilience.If managed properly, the Arctic could become a model for international cooperation in addressing shared challenges.
Archyde: Thank you, Dr. Hughes, for your insights. It’s clear that the Arctic will remain a critical area of focus in the years to come.
Dr. Hughes: Thank you. Indeed, the Arctic is no longer just a frozen frontier—it’s a strategic battleground that will shape the future of global security.
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This interview has been edited for clarity and length. For more in-depth analysis, read the full Review of the Arctic 2024 published by the Observatory on Politics and Security in the Arctic (OPSA).
