Cash flow “flowing” into the market is still positive
In yesterday’s trading session (January 22), stock market liquidity reached more than 20.5 trillion VND, much higher than the trading session last week (January 19, liquidity reached more than 16 billion VND). .6 trillion VND).
This is quite a surprising point compared to previous years, because usually close to Tet, investor psychology fluctuates before the Tet holiday for “dozens” of reasons.
In previous years, close to Tet, money flow into the market was quite small. Photo: SSI
Considering the trading session on January 22, it can be seen that the banking group is still attractive, cash flow shows no signs of escaping, although codes that previously attracted large cash flows such as BID, CTG, MBB, ACB have recently slowed down. reduced or slightly reduced.
However, this can be seen as a break, slowing down the upward momentum, not turning back to a downtrend.
In addition, since the end of last week, cash flow has shown signs of starting to spread to the mid-cap group, then to the steel industry stocks, securities, and real estate. In general, the market does not appear to have high risks. Cash flow is still positive, gradually spreading to many new groups, creating momentum to pull the market further, at least possibly soon conquering the 1,200 point mark right before the Lunar New Year.
Meanwhile, in the long term, the cash flow in the market is very abundant and just waiting for good signals to enter.
Specifically, statistical data from the fourth quarter of 2023 financial statements show that customer deposit balances at securities companies at the end of 2023 reached regarding VND 83,000 billion, mainly deposits from investors. Investing in stock trading according to the method of securities company management.
Not only has the amount of investors’ deposits at securities companies increased, investors’ need to use leverage has also been strongly promoted.
Accordingly, outstanding loans at securities companies at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 are estimated to reach 180,000 billion VND, an increase of regarding 15,000 billion compared to the end of the third quarter. Of which, outstanding margin debt is estimated at regarding 172,000 billion VND, also increased by 13,000 billion VND in the last quarter of the year.
“In terms of medium and long-term vision, the important thing is that the market is in an uptrend and liquidity is improving. Cash flow in the banking group may soon spread to other groups, even though this group Therefore, investors can continue to hold a high proportion in the banking group, watch the break, adjust to accumulate more or buy new ones.
Of course, the portfolio should be divided into 3-4 industries, you can buy more real estate and securities groups to avoid the risk of “putting all your eggs in one basket”, an investment consultant of SSI Securities recommends. .
Cash flow may gradually withdraw from the market close to Tet
Economic expert Truong Hien Phuong, Senior Director of KIS Vietnam Securities, commented that cash flow often tends to slow down and reduce disbursement into the market close to Tet for 4 reasons.
Firstly, during a long period of Tet holiday (regarding 7-9 days), investors will not know the surrounding developments during this time such as world geopolitics, policies, etc. in large countries can affect policies in other countries such as Vietnam and neighboring countries… Therefore, to prevent information from going out of control and being easily passive, investors often tend to be slow in disbursement, limiting disbursement into the market.
Closer to Tet, cash flow may gradually withdraw from the stock market for 4 reasons. Photo: SSI
Second, there are some investors who use financial leverage, so when the market is continuously moving, they will actively invest and withdraw money quickly. As for the Tet holiday, it lasts 7-9 days, which is ineffective and may have new risks that investors cannot predict, and the burden of margin interest should be the strategy of investors. This investment is not to increase margin loans to disburse into the market.
Third reason, there are investors who have the mentality that when the market takes a long break and there is nothing attractive, they will sell, withdraw money and not disburse into the market. Bring this money home to spend during Tet or save it to take advantage of some idle interest before re-entering the market.
Finally, the cash flow at the end of the year includes old investors, senior leaders of businesses, etc. When the market takes a long break and there is nothing attractive to participate in, they will tend to withdraw cash flow. to supplement personal business activities, so cash flow into the stock market will also be limited.
Commenting on the rather explosive market liquidity of the January 22nd trading session, Senior Director of KIS Vietnam Securities predicted that there may begin to be signals and signs that some investors choose to sell and withdraw. money out, so their selling action is stronger.
“As for the matched sellers, which means matched buyers, investors have a more medium- and long-term investment perspective. They see stocks that are down 1%-3% and find it reasonable to accept them. Buy and hold through Tet, leading to increased market liquidity,” Mr. Phuong explained.
