Status: 05/10/2022 06:56 a.m
What was considered almost impossible a few years ago is now considered possible by experts – they warn: global warming might exceed the 1.5 degree mark for the first time by 2026.
Weather experts from the United Nations expect a new heat record year by 2026. By then, the global average temperature for a year might be more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level for the first time. The probability that in the five-year period from 2022 to 2026 a temperature of over 1.5 degrees will be reached for at least one year is almost 50 percent, reported the UN World Weather Organization (WMO) in Geneva.
However, that does not mean that the 1.5 degree mark will be permanently exceeded in this case. In the following years, the value might be lower once more. On average, however, the WMO experts expect temperatures to continue to rise in the coming years.
“1.5 degree threshold not random”
In 2015 it was still considered practically impossible that the 1.5 degree mark would be reached within five years. At that time, the world community had agreed in the Paris climate agreement to limit permanent warming to well below two degrees and if possible below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas warned that the 1.5 degree threshold is not accidental. It marks “the point at which climate impacts become increasingly harmful for people and for the entire planet”. Taalas repeated the warnings of further high greenhouse gas emissions: The consequences are warmer and more acidic oceans, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels and more extreme weather conditions.
Arctic warming is disproportionately high. “What happens in the Arctic affects us all,” said the head of the UN organization.
World’s hottest year so far 2016
The report from Geneva comes halfway between the last world climate conference COP26 in Glasgow and the next conference COP27 in Egypt. Around 30,000 participants, including 120 heads of state and government, are expected in the seaside resort of Sharm el Sheikh in November.
Halfway through the COP, observers draw a sobering conclusion on climate protection, also because of the war in Ukraine. Globally, the hottest year to date was 2016, when the global average temperature was regarding 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The probability of this record being broken by 2026 is 93 percent, according to the WMO. It is just as likely that the average temperature over the five-year period 2022-2026 will be higher than in the previous five years.
It will also become wetter in some regions
The calculations were made by the British meteorological authority for the WMO. Last year, the global average temperature was 1.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels, according to the WMO’s preliminary climate report. The WMO will publish the final value on May 18th.
The British meteorologists assume that the average temperature in this and the next four years will be between 1.1 and 1.7 degrees above the pre-industrial level. For this year, the meteorologists expect that it will be drier in south-western Europe and south-western North America than the average for the years 1991 to 2020. In contrast, it is likely to be wetter in northern Europe, the Sahel zone, north-eastern Brazil and Australia.
Leon Hermanson, head of analysis at the British Weather Service, emphasized that exceeding the 1.5 degree mark in a single year does not mean that the threshold of the Paris Agreement has been breached. But it shows “that we are getting closer to a situation in which 1.5 degrees might be exceeded over a longer period of time”.
