2024-05-01 09:10:00
Increasingly, the agricultural sector is facing a major challenge: ensuring its sustainability and competitiveness in a context of increasing water stress. To find alternatives to this equation, agronomists are calling for a rethinking of the country’s agricultural model, taking into account ecological, economic and social imperatives.
Since the start of the year, several regions in the north and south of the country have experienced rainy episodes which have contributed to significantly filling the dams. However, despite this beneficial rainfall, there are still concerns regarding their ability to remedy the context of water stress which has prevailed for years. They also seem to offer a fleeting respite from the drought which has been disrupting Tunisia for several years. These rains, so generous in appearance, brought with them a hint of hope, but their impact remains mixed in the face of the distress of the agricultural countryside, where depleted and dried out pastures stand out like gaping wounds. Because between these drops of water carrying a fragile optimism, we glimpse the brutal and harsh reality which characterizes the condition of farmers.
The rains, which arrive between October and April, can only be beneficial for the water needs of crops, the storage capacity of dams, etc. In general, regular and sufficient rainfall over a prolonged period is necessary to recharge groundwater tables, beneficially fill dams, ensure agricultural yield and water supply.
Drought shakes up agriculture
For years now, Tunisia has been experiencing episodes of drought, which have weighed on the morale of farmers and the country’s economy. Past years had already been particularly hard for the agricultural sector due to an unusual heat wave. And the scenario might well repeat itself in 2024, according to forecasts. Faced with this situation, farmers are trying to adapt by using more water-saving irrigation techniques, or by diversifying their crops towards species that are more resistant to drought. But these solutions are not sufficient to deal with the water crisis which requires a global and concerted policy between the different actors. The national agricultural sector is often criticized for its excessive water consumption, particularly for crops intended for export. Some experts believe that the country should favor crops intended for national consumption, which use less water and are more adapted to the dietary needs of the population. Professionals in the agricultural sector defend the importance of exports, which represent a source of income, foreign currency and jobs for the country. Increasingly, the agricultural sector is facing a major challenge: ensuring its sustainability and competitiveness in a context of increasing water stress. To find alternatives to this equation, agronomists are calling for a rethinking of the country’s agricultural model, taking into account ecological, economic and social imperatives. For years, farmers have been fighting once morest Mother Nature, an unpredictable enemy who can be as generous as she is ruthless. These years have left profound consequences. Because our dams have seen their reserves slowly evaporate, reflecting the severity of successive droughts. These rains which water the thirsty lands are only a temporary balm for the ills of our agriculture. Agriculture which suffers from a severe rainfall deficit, but which nevertheless remains the main driver of growth.
Adaptation policies
According to a study carried out by the Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies called: “Macro-economic impacts and issues of adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate change”, climate change in Tunisia presents a major challenge for the economy national in general and agriculture in particular, with an increase in temperatures, a decrease in precipitation and an intensification of extreme weather phenomena. This impact is more noticeable in a country dependent on food imports and facing financial difficulties. Knowing that agriculture represents on average 10.2% of GDP over the period 2011-2020. In this line, the agri-food industry sector (IAA) contributes 3.2% of GDP. The total contribution of these two sectors amounts to 13.4% of GDP, or the equivalent of the total contribution of the manufacturing industries sector excluding IAA over the period 2011-2020. The study indicates that despite its contribution to economic and social development, Tunisian agriculture suffers from multiple structural fragilities which, combined with the negative impacts of climate change, significantly accentuate the vulnerability of both activity and the rural population who depend on it. The growth rate of agricultural value added over the last twenty years is very fluctuating. This sector, essentially based on plant production mainly dominated by rain-fed agriculture, remains very dependent on annual precipitation. In terms of cultivated area, irrigated agriculture only represents 4.5% of the total agricultural area and contributes up to 37% of agricultural added value (INS, 2021). The high variability of the climate, particularly in annual precipitation, explains the volatility of the growth of agricultural value added.
Projections
According to the same source, projections show a sharp decline in the main products intended for export, namely dates and olives. Date production would drop on average by 2% per year, while annual losses in olive production would be on average 2.3% between 2022 and 2050. The evolution of cereals, 95% of which are located in the North-West (governorates Kef, Béja and Jendouba) would be in continuous decline, with an evolution of -0.1% over the projection period. The interannual evolution of these crops is characterized by strong volatility which intensifies from 2035 due to the increase in the frequency and duration of heavy precipitation between 2035 and 2050. Indeed, following the increase in heavy precipitation (greater than 40 mm) during this period, particularly in the governorates of Béja and Jendouba which account for more than 40% of national production, cereal production would increase between 2046 and 2050, which might explain the positive growth rates of the production of durum wheat, soft wheat and barley during the last three five-year terms.
It is obvious that the socio-economic repercussions of climate change would be considerable for the Tunisian economy. The simulations thus reveal the importance and urgency of adaptation policies, as well as the substantial role of the agricultural sector in food security and sustainable development in Tunisia. In the absence of adaptation policies, climate change risks exacerbating the economic situation. Adaptation solutions are thus closely linked to the country’s economic priorities and its financing capacity.
Suitable solutions
Thus, the implementation of hydraulic adaptation policies, such as the construction of desalination stations, the establishment of wastewater purification units, the maintenance and construction of new dams would, of course, contribute to the solving the problem of water shortage in the medium and long term and reducing the water deficit. These solutions, all things being equal, will slightly improve Tunisia’s economic development trajectory. The effectiveness of these policies, and even their sustainability, is dependent on better management of water resources, while improving water productivity in all economic sectors through optimization of available resources, better management of water consumption. households, while eliminating all losses and waste. In addition, “it is recommended to consider regional pricing including equalization (identical share for the whole country) on the cost linked to the provision of the resource and a regional price (variable) which reflects the performance of the distribution agency. The study finds that even with planned increases in water supply, “simultaneous achievement of water security and economic development requires significant reductions in water elasticity in agricultural, industrial production and services through the adoption of water-saving production techniques. These improvements should also be accompanied by rapid growth in productivity levels across the economy. Furthermore, effective public investment in a major effort to stimulate this productivity growth is crucial. The tceq also offers recommendations, the main of which revolve around the principle of the need to design and implement an integrated adaptation strategy. This would make it possible to reduce the structural constraints on economic development in general and the development of the agricultural sector in particular, in particular access to financing for farmers on the credit market which represents a major constraint to cover the necessary financing needs and reduce the harmful effects of climate change.
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