2023-06-08 06:30:05
Experts from several countries, brought together in the CLEVER project, have shaped an energy transition scenario for 30 European countries. Lower energy consumption and full switch to renewable energies will help achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.
After Franco-French work at the end of 2021 (RTE, négaWatt) and beginning of 2022 (Ademe), the time for scenarios has returned, but this time on a European scale. Before Engie soon presents its vision of the energy transition in Europe, 26 organizations from 20 countries have just published an unprecedented study on the path that the Old Continent can take to achieve carbon neutrality. Led by the French association négaWatt, the project named CLEVER (for Collaborative Low Energy Vision for the European Region) notably includes AirClim (Sweden), Inforse-Europe (Denmark), Politecnico di Milano (Italy), Energie-Suffizienz (Germany), EcoServeis (Spain) and the National Observatory of Athens (Greece).
The work carried out by this consortium over four years has made it possible to model the evolution of energy consumption and production up to 2050 for 30 countries: the European Union of 27, Switzerland, Norway and the United Kingdom. Starting from the final energy needs of the different activity sectors, they applied sobriety and efficiency hypotheses, to then assess the means of primary energy production required. In accordance with the principles of the negaWatt scenario, only renewable energies are taken into consideration.
Europe starting from a current situation where fossil fuels still represent a large share of production, this choice is audacious. But the CLEVER project shows that this is possible, with a consequent sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (-65% from 2030 compared to 1990) to achieve carbon neutrality in 2045, without recourse to capture and to carbon storage. This European scenario is thus compatible with a global trajectory limiting global warming to +1.5°C.
Definition of corridors of sobriety
First of all, the action must be initiated as quickly as possible and without any restraint for the next 25 years. In this sense, the members of the project have listed a series of recommendations for European energy policies to be adapted. This means, for example, that the directive on the performance of buildings currently being revised places very strong emphasis on the efficient renovation of the residential and tertiary stock.
The reduction in final energy consumption is estimated at 55% in 2050 compared to 2019: it conditions all the results of the scenario. The construction and transport sectors account for two-thirds of this decline. To achieve this, the annual rate of efficient renovation must exceed 2% around 2030 in all countries, whereas currently the average is 0.2%. Heating methods are mainly switching to electricity (mainly heat pumps), solid biomass and heating networks, while fossil fuels and gas vectors are no longer used. In transport, the development of electric and bioNGV vehicles, as well as the development of public transport and soft mobility, are one of the means of reducing energy consumption in this sector by 39% from 2030.
Above all, the promoters of the CLEVER project insist on the fact that sobriety is a crucial axis for reducing consumption. In France, Germany and the United Kingdom, it accounts for 20 to 30% of energy savings. Sobriety, in line with what the IPCC has proposed, is defined as the collective and individual redefinition of infrastructure and practices to minimize the consumption of energy, materials, land, water and other natural resources while ensuring human well-being without overstepping planetary boundaries. It is therefore certainly reflected in individual behavior, but will only find its full expression if public policies are dedicated to it. They must thus allow the reduction of speeds on the motorway (110 km/h), the increase in the filling rate of vehicles (carpooling/car sharing), the reduction in the size of vehicles and the size of housing, fewer purchases of consumer goods, etc.
The originality of CLEVER’s approach is to consider that sobriety will be a source of equity between countries. Indeed, the study provides corridors of sobriety for different criteria: according to the current situation of the countries, the evolution will be upwards or downwards so that all converge. For example, the number of kilometers traveled each year is between 11,000 and 15,000 km per person in 2050 (see graph), which forces some countries to lower their average while others may increase it. A similar analysis is made in the building, so that the average per person converges to 32-40 m2 of housing, 18-25 liters of hot water per day and 500-700 kWh per year for electrical uses.
Many more renewables
The CLEVER scenario then establishes a trajectory for energy production: fossil and nuclear are gradually reduced to zero, while the share of renewables increases to reach 100% in Europe in 2050. Growth in the use of biomass up to 2250 TWh in 2050 (especially biogas and non-forest fuelwood) remains within the limits of the lowest estimates made at European level. For electricity, a strong development of photovoltaic solar power, onshore wind power and offshore wind power makes it possible to meet all needs. In 2050, these three technologies have respectively installed capacities equal to 1,366 GW, 546 GW and 328 GW. The intermediate objectives for 2030 are in line with the European ambitions of REPowerEU.
The electrification of uses, so much promoted in other scenarios, is contained in CLEVER by energy efficiency and sobriety. A certain balance between energy vectors (gas, liquid fuels, hydrogen, solid biomass, heat network, electricity) is sought to take account of sectoral constraints, the supply of raw materials, levels of technological maturity and costs. Thus, gas carriers play a special role, driven by two types of conversion:
- the electrolysis of water which makes it possible to produce hydrogen up to 1,030 TWh in 2050 for the EU27;
- pyrogasification of biomass, which will ultimately produce 214 TWh of synthetic methane.
It should be noted that CLEVER’s objectives for hydrogen in 2030 (140 TWh) are much lower than those of REPowerEU (more than 600 TWh), which allows the alternative scenario not to resort to imports at all, except 25 TWh between the EU27 and Norway by 2050. The rise in power of hydrogen following 2035 makes it possible to meet new needs in industry, in the international maritime transport of goods (power-to-gas and power- to-liquid), in the production of electricity and heat, and in domestic transport.
With all these elements of analysis, the authors of the CLEVER scenario hope to provide new arguments to the European authorities so that ambitious and coherent objectives with this sobriety-efficiency-renewable approach are defined for 2040.
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