Clear bourgeois majority in yet another opinion poll

According to Klassekampen and Nationen’s May poll, the Conservative Party, FRP, Liberal Party and KrF have a clear majority in the Storting, despite the fact that the Christian People’s Party ends up below the threshold of 4 percent.

Høyre, Frp and Venstre all advance from the survey in April. The Labor Party and the Center Party are going backwards, while SV is moving forward a little.

In total, the four parties on the bourgeois side would have received 93 mandates in the Storting if this were the election result. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Ap) and the red-green party (Ap, Sp, SV and Rødt) would only have managed 74 mandates.

Stable

– The overall picture is that there is a stable, bourgeois majority that strengthens over time, says an election researcher Johannes Bergh at the Institute for Social Research to Klassekampen.

The red-green parties have only had a majority in Norfakta’s parliamentary polls once in the last 12 months.

Bergh points out that the FRP in particular has experienced growth over a longer period. The FRP is now only 2 percentage points behind the Labor Party.

– There is some movement among voters on the right. A part of the voters who now say they will vote FRP probably voted Conservative at the last election, says Bergh.

Election analyst Svein Tore Marthinsen tells Nationen that much of the dissatisfaction with the governing parties has probably been taken out.

– It looks as if Ap has stabilized with around 20 per cent support and Sp around six. It seems as if there is a floor for them around there, says Marthinsen.

Blue on all measurements

In the survey Opinion carried out for Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse this week, the Conservative Party and FRP got a majority together with 85 mandates. In VG’s poll in May, there was a bourgeois majority with 89 mandates. In the TV 2 poll this May, the bourgeois got 90 mandates. They also found that in the surveys from Nettavisen, Altinget and ABC Nyheter this May.

Results for all parties (change from April in brackets):

Red 4.9 (-0.1), SV 10.5 (+1.1), Ap 17.8 (-2.7), Sp 6.6 (-2), MDG 3.3 (-0, 3), KrF 3.4 (-0.5), Left 6.6 (+1.3), Conservative 26.5 (+1.9), Frp 15.4 (+0.5) and INP 1.4 percent (+0.3).

The survey was carried out by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen. 1001 people were interviewed on 6 and 7 May. The margin of error is between 1.1 and 2.7 percentage points and is greatest for the parties with the highest support.